---- Sorry, Been out the game for a while ----
Original Thread was this:
http://www.ja606.co.uk/articles/viewArticle/80351
Just adding some more here now at the "business end" 38 now seems plenty to stay up so 36 prob closer to the mark, But will stick with 38, Can't just go changing numbers to fit!
Points per Game Over the Season:...
P - Played
Pts - Points
Pg - Points per game ratio
Pgd - Delta Points Per game required to make 38 points
rg - Remaining Games
PE - predicted End Season
P - Pts - pg - Pgd - rg - PE
1 - 0 - 0 - 1.03 - 37 - 0
2 - 0 - 0 - 1.06 - 36 - 0
3 - 0 - 0 - 1.09 - 35 - 0
4 - 1 - 0.25 - 1.09 - 34 - 9
5 - 4 - 0.8 - 1.03 - 33 - 30
6 - 4 - 0.67 - 1.06 - 32 - 25
7 - 4 - 0.57 - 1.1 - 31 - 21
8 - 5 - 0.63 - 1.1 - 30 - 23
9 - 5 - 0.56 - 1.14 - 29 - 21
10 - 6 - 0.6 - 1.14 - 28 - 22
11 - 6 - 0.55 - 1.19 - 27 - 20
12 - 7 - 0.58 - 1.19 - 26 - 22
13 - 7 - 0.54 - 1.24 - 25 - 20
14 - 10 - 0.71 - 1.17 - 24 - 26
15 - 10 - 0.67 - 1.22 - 23 - 25
16 - 10 - 0.63 - 1.27 - 22 - 23
17 - 10 - 0.59 - 1.33 - 21 - 22
18 - 11 - 0.61 - 1.35 - 20 - 23
19 - 14 - 0.74 - 1.26 - 19 - 28
20 - 14 - 0.7 - 1.33 - 18 - 26
21 - 17 - 0.81 - 1.24 - 17 - 30
22 - 18 - 0.82 - 1.25 - 16 - 31
23 - 18 - 0.78 - 1.33 - 15 - 29
24 - 18 - 0.75 - 1.43 - 14 - 28
25 - 21 - 0.84 - 1.31 - 13 - 31
26 - 21 - 0.81 - 1.42 - 12 - 30
27 - 22 - 0.81 - 1.45 - 11 - 30
28 - 25 - 0.89 - 1.3 - 10 - 33
29 - 28 - 0.97 - 1.11 - 9 - 36
30 - 28 - 0.93 - 1.25 - 8 - 35
31 - 28 - 0.9 - 1.43 - 7 - 34
32 - 28 - 0.88 - 1.67 - 6 - 33
33 - 28 - 0.85 - 2 - 5 - 32
34 - 28 - 0.82 - 2.5 - 4 - 31
I do love excel :o)
What becomes shockingly apparent is we have 'acheived' only 2 clean sheets this season, and our best "undefeated streak" is 3 games. Also we have NEVER had the requisite PPG ratio to make 38 points in the season.
The only way we can now make 38 is with 3 wins and a draw. Again, think 36 will be sufficient, maybe less, but still sees us needing at least 2 wins from Norwich, Chelsea, Spurs and Wigan
Still two personal Premier League Manager records broken for Steve in the last few weeks, First ever back to back victory, First ever clean sheet.
just don't really care any more... Just find solice in working with the numbers, rather than what they mean
** Have Added PE as a prediction of End of Season Points based on that point in time's current PPG ratio.. Our BEST was 36 points,our average 34... Joy
Catching up with the stats..
posted on 16/4/12
I'm a stat geek too.
What is quite amazing is that if you put all the values as text rather than numerical fields and take the last letter from the first line, penultimate from the second and so on it spells:
"Kean is inept, Rovers are shti, we are down"
posted on 16/4/12
Now Pie You've chosen numbers that suit your needs there rather than the facts, tut tut, Bad Pie, Bad Bad Pie...
But being more precise, if I spin in a circle in my garage and then throw a dart at the wall, if the dart hits higher than 50% and Further right than central I use a letter from the first 25% of the alphabet to make a word (LowRight=2nd 25%, High Left=3rd 25%, Low Left =4th 25%), its incredible what came out was this:
The walkers are destroying Rovers, Them and Sam with his anti football, and that John Williams is a liability! You should sell to someone 1000's of miles away with a spun off business group with limited liabilities to purchase the club and install a "total football" manager instead, If you can't find a manager just promote the kitman
Amazing isn't it, Its like a history lesson.. If only we had done such careful predictive analysis in say 2010 we could have done that and not been where we are today... Oh... Yeah... right...
posted on 16/4/12
I was going orienteering Easter weekend and running a bit late to meet up with my mates, I tried to text my mates 'store kit in a cave' and predictive text sent:
Steve Kean is a cu
posted on 16/4/12
Just waiting for the People who only believe in stats that the engineer to suit their own needs to come on and Decide these are wrong because in a two game window we won 2 which means we will win the premier league with 114 points
posted on 16/4/12
Here's some stat's that are plain and simple for you
Form Table:
.......................P W D L GF GA GD
19 Blackburn Rovers 6 1 0 5 5 13 -8 3
20 Wolverhampton 6 0 1 5 4 15 -11 1
posted on 16/4/12
Dirty, but of you show the form table 2012 we are actually out of the bottom 3, Villa are down there. The table you show, you might as well just show the prem table.
The op is referring to some 'debates' earlier in the season when some were trying to defend Kean. They used arguments including "if we start from the transfer window closing" when we won a game in September.
Those with a brain just kept posting Games Vs Points and projected forwards. Basically, we've been down from the first kick...
posted on 19/4/12
Just thinking about above, would we EVER have been on target to stay up? Maybe in this obscure season, but has 36 points been enough in the past?
posted on 19/4/12
Strangely enough, yes!
About half of the last 10 I think.
West Ham were the worst the other way - relegated on 42 points!
posted on 19/4/12
Cheers Pie, Always thought it was about 38.
Would be interesting to know what the relegation points were, as we've only "been on target" for 36 for one fixture, and our average is 34 across all (unless I've scr'wed my maths)