This is the sort of weekend when its good to be a neutral and enjoy two great games (though I alwasy think Weeks 4 & 5 of the pool stages are THE best games in the whole tournament).
Ulster vs Edinburgh: ACTUAL - ULSTER By 3
Given that I predicted both these sides to lose in the quarters you may well wonder what value my forecast holds, but anyway. Regardless of which angle I look at this I can only see Ulster winning it - home side, stronger pack, better backs especially Pienaar, more experience, better form, better record. I think both sides will be nervous, but I just can't see anything other than an Ulster win (though I said that about Toulouse & Munster too in the quarters).
Ulster by 10
SARS: Ulster by 10 - 2pts
Taras Ulster by 10 - 2pts
DingBatMan Ulster by 14 - 2pts
Gecko Ulster by 12 - 2pts
Captain Hook Ulster by 8 - 3pts
Mojiebhoy Ulster by 14 - 2pts
Clermont Auvergne Vs Leinster ACTUAL - Leinster by 4
Wow! What a game! Two truly great sides and very very hard to split, Leinster twice champions and holders, Clermont the heirs apparent. Home field advantage will be big for Clermont, but they were great against a strong Sarries pack away from home. Leinster have been there, done that - a lot.
This one is close everywhere, Clermont's home field advantage (they have not lost at home for 40 (!) games)is balanced by Leinsters experience and record (they have won 4 out of 5 vs Clermont). Clermont probably shade it in the pack, and Leinster in the backs - though beware Rougerie and Fofana.
Its a very difficult one to call, but I think the home field nature and greater want of Clermont may slightly tip it in their favour.
Clermont by 5
SARS: Clermont by 5 - 0 pts - 0 bonus points
Taras Leinster by 5 - 3 pts - 1 BP
DingBatMan Leinster by 10 - 2pts - 1 BP
Gecko: Leinster by 6 (after much care and consideration) - 3pts - 1 BP
Captain Hook Clermont by 6 - 0pts - 0BP
Mojiebhoy Leinster by 4 - 4pts - 1BP
What do you think? Where do I have it right or wrong?
For the predictions its 2 for the correct result, 1 for getting the margin right to +/- 5, 1 for being the most accurate in the margin and 1 for getting both results right
Totals:
SARS: 2
Taras 6
DingBatMan 5
Gecko: 6
Captain Hook 3
Mojiebhoy 7
Congratulations to Mojiebhoy to finish what I guess was a pretty enjoyable sporting weekend for you !!!
Heineken Cup Semi Final Predictions
posted on 25/4/12
Ulster should have too much for Edinburgh, but didn't we all say that about Toulouse?
I think Toulouse just didn't turn up, arrogant French so-and-sos that they are, knowing that they were already through to the semi-final
So, Ulster by 10.
Clermont are playing in their home country but not 'at home' so their formidable home advantage may be watered down somewhat. That said, they're in frightening form at the moment with two hammerings dished out to Stade and Montpellier in their last two Top14 games. And look at their squad, pretty much every position on the park is covered by two internationals and then there's Wesley Fofana...
Leinster have been there and done that. Twice. And with the likes of Cronin, Van der Merwe, Jennings and McFadden on the bench have no shortage of options either.
Clermont used to famous for being sports greates chokers having lost six finals out of six (admittedly four of them to Toulouse) between 1994 and 2009 (and four out of four before that) but they gave that monkey his papers in 2010. They have never shone in the Heineken, this will be their 1st semi (I think they've been in 2 or 3 quarters).
I may be letting the heart rule the head here but I'm going for Leinster's greater experience and record to nullify ASM's home advantage and sneak it by a score.
Leinster by 5
posted on 25/4/12
Ulster by 14
After a monumenta performance against Munster, It's nigh on imposible to look beyond Ulster. Edinburgh following their HC glory against Toulouse were taken to school 54 - 13 by leinster the following week and not only that but leinster left 16 points behind them due to rubbish place kicking. on paper it could have been in the 70s. so for me Edinburgh have done extremely well but the journey stops here.
Leinster by 10
Can't go against Leinster being quite openly bias. But I also feel they have a lot more than Clermont, perhaps not man to man but as a team they are an over whelming force. If they play 80% of the quality they showed against Cardiff, it will be over by half time. That I think is what the Leinster game plan will be, soak up the initial 10 minuet emotion of the occasion and then put in a storming 30 mins before the break, scoring a couple of tries to take the heart out of a mentally weak Clermont. On the other hand Clermont will look to do exactly the same, but Leinster are not going to fold mentally even if they go into the break losing. Experience counts for everything in this one, and Leinster are granddaddies at this point.
posted on 25/4/12
I wouldn't be surprised if I get both wrong, by some margin as well. But I'll play along and throw my thoughts into the mix.
I'm going to plump for Ulster. By 12.
Leinster. By 6. Or 8. Maybe 7. No, definitely sticking on 6. May update this post later.
posted on 25/4/12
Ulster by 8
Clermont by 6
posted on 28/4/12
I think Ulster will win by 14.
BoD back and the experience Leinster have, I think they will do it by 4 points.
posted on 2/5/12
Thank you Sars!! Great weekend for me indeed. Old firm win and two brilliant Rugby wins for the provinces. I won the 606 prediction comp, which is the biggest honour I have ever had and it was my birthday on Sunday. Very memorable, my luck will change though.
Somehow both Irish teams will lose the final and Celtic will be stripped of the title for some unforeseen circumstance. Knowing my luck.