A wet Bank Holiday Sunday afternoon, what better time for a stroll through our striker issue.
A good friend of mine was a professional in the then First Division in the 1970s. He came from the North East and as a promising youngster he was coached by the legendary Jackie Milburn. At the start of his professional career as a striker Jackie gave him this advice..." one in one is impossible; one in two is very good; one in three is EXPECTED". My friend admits that whilst he obviously wanted his team to win, what mattered most was that he got on the score sheet.
For me that's the benchmark, any striker who we bring to the club should have that pedigree and preferably in more than one season. We've had strikers of that quality in the past. Statistically the best were Sam Parkin and Duncan Shearer who both had a scoring ratio of less then one in two. Close behind were Jimmy Quinn, Alan Mayes, Peter Eastoe and Steve White, at just over one in two.
More recently Charlie Austin scored at a rate of 1.8 in his spell with us but at Burnley this has decreased to around one in three. Billy Paynter's average in his spell with us was 2.7; since moving on he's scored just 3 in 38 (1 in 13).
Last season our most effective striker was Paul Benson who scored 11 in 22 games - his overall career rate is a very creditable 1 in 2.5. Alan Connell's career average is around 1 in 3.
So, where am I going with all this...not sure that I know! Here are a few attempted conclusions:
For me the best striker we've ever had was Duncan Shearer...98 goals in 195 games gives a fantastic strike ratio of 1 in 1.9 achieved consistently over a period of time. His hold-up play and awareness was exceptional and his ability to bring others into the game as valuable as his goals. Unfortunately players of his calibre come along very rarely, but that's the type of player we need.
Paul Benson is a proven striker over time and was a great acquisition last season. He's 32 and can't go on for ever but for the moment he's a real asset. Alan Connell's career record is around 1 in 3...we need to hang on to him at least as a squad player.
We've been linked with Andy Williams but that's gone quiet (although I can't find any indication that he's gone elsewhere). However whilst he's just had his best ever season his overall record is around 1 in 5 so I'm unconvinced.
Don't expect Lucas Magera to come back and solve the problem...his career record is poor. In contrast Mehdi Kerrouche's record is respectable, including 6 in 13 games for us last season. I'd like to see him given the chance to start with a clean slate in pre-season, we've nothing to lose.
We all know we need a couple of good signings. Don't ask me where the they are going to come from. After last season I don't expect them to come from abroad! There must be some decent players out there in the domestic game who are proven but possibly out of favour where they are and wanting a new challenge. One thing in our favour is PdC, I think for a player the prospect of joining a club on the up with a 'mercurial' (?) manager is a definite attraction. Although at the end of the day I'm realistic enough to know that money talks loudest.
I'm hoping we start to get some definite and positive news in the next week or so!
Strikers
posted on 3/6/12
Good post Don, Billy is a free agent I believe but I don't think i'd take him back, suprised Jan Aage Fjortoft didn't get a slight mention, those 13 goals in 17 games (?) were brilliant and was a shame we couldn't keep for longer. Agree about Duncan he was brilliant, Sam Parkin and Simon Cox wern't bad either
You talk about Andy Williams, apparantly the move is quite close to being complete, Paolo mentioned he was interested in an interview recently. Don't look at his carear strike rate, he's been a winger for all of his carear and only got moved to a striker since January and scored 14, 15 goals so pretty decent form.
Also at the beginning you mention your friend thought it was more important to score than the team to win, Paolo hates striker's like that, he wants the team working as one and would prefer a striker score 15 goals a season and is working hard off the ball than a striker who will score 20, 25 goals and do nothing else.
Compared to last summer it has been quite slow transfer news wise. Maybe it's because Preston are signing every free agent out there.
posted on 3/6/12
billy paynters re-available for u
posted on 3/6/12
Rooney - why the ?, do I need to clarify?
Tez - with a ratio of 1in 13 not for us thanks
ST - good point about Jan Age, overall he scored 1 in 2. Shame he wasn't around for longer. Thanks for the insight on Andy Williams.
posted on 3/6/12
All these stats! Can anyone remember Peter Noble?
posted on 4/6/12
Certainly do, 80 goals in around 250 games. One of the best buys in the Town's history. He could jump as high as the stand!
posted on 4/6/12
Don, excellent post, and maybe a few names missing but you have made your point very well.
I like Benson...... a lot, but, and its a big but, we cannot expect him to take up the mantle over the full season, grossly unfair and unrealistic.
We need two more to form a partnership, either one to receive the ball and to know where his partner is to pass it onto so he can get a shot off.
Many of us would just love to see Simon Cox back here, but that will not happen this summer. I would also love the prospect of Kerrouche coming back in, he has the touch, but does he have the temperament to follow orders ?
I also remember Peter Noble, but Arthur Horsefield was a good old boy as well, we as a club have had a wealth of outstanding players over the years, compared to many other clubs we have stood out as being so fortunate. My hope is that now, Wray can hold the talent here in order to further the club, and its standing.
Years back clubs from the old Div One used to fear coming to CG in Cup competitions, lets hope those days return under DiCanio, and a couple of mavericks up front would do well to further enhance that.
posted on 4/6/12
S'fan,
Arthur Horsfield? IMO he was a donkey!
Eastoe was good as well.
But that's all in the past.
We have to get a new guy soon.
posted on 4/6/12
SF - I'm mortified that I forgot to include Simon Cox! His record of 48 goals in 86 games puts him up there with Shearer and Parkin in the top three.
I liked 'King Arthur'. Centre forward in the traditional mode and scored every 2.4 games which is good.
I know statistics never tell the whole story and maybe I'm overdoing it but I feel that it's the best starting point.
The best situation is when you have an effective pair who complement each other, in the Toshack and Keegan mode. We had this with Andy Rowland and Alan Mayes, and briefly with Billy Paynter and Charlie Austin.I wish we could find another pairing .
posted on 4/6/12
RED,
King Arthur, good old boy!!! When the whistle blew to start/restart the game he always had his "charge forward".
Maybe not the most skilled of players, but he always gave 100% of what he had, a bit of a workman like crusty performer, but a good reliable foil for the likes of who played with him. The Town End used to sing, "Calling Arthur Horsfield,'cause he's the king of them all and he'll fight, fight for Swindon" the rest has faded into the dark bits of my fading memory, sorry.
Pete Eastoe another good 'un. As I said we have been very lucky over the years. I'd love to see Connell come good to the tune of 20 odd a season, nice bloke and gives his best, we can't ask for more than that, especially after the " kings of hair products and hair bands" when the Leeds lot were here.
posted on 6/6/12
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