Djokovic and Federer started the tournament having to win 7 matches. With 4 matches down and 3 matches to go, they are now rated on Betfair as less likely winners than they were at the start. I guess their slightly below par form, and perhaps more importantly Rafa's high level, counts for more than some wins against players they were expected to beat anyway.
From the 28th May to June 5th, Nadal has changed from 58% chance to win the tournament according to the Betfair market, to 68%. Djokovic has fallen from 23% to 18%. Federer down from 9.5% to 6.9%. I guess he really needed at least one of the big 2 to have suffered a shock result that hasn't happened.
I wonder if they're overreacting to form though. We know Djokovic beat Nadal in the last three slam finals. I see this as closer than 68%-18%. I agree that Nadal is the favourite, and more so every day, and yet 18% still looks low to me. This guy can bring it when he has to.
Ferrer has also overtaken Murray as the 4th favourite as the tournament has progressed, perhaps due to impressive form and not having had longer matches. However Ferrer is still only given a 2.9% chance to win RG by the Betfair market.
Big 3 - Odds To Win
posted on 5/6/12
My last 2 posts were for the MOTD thread!
posted on 5/6/12
The proof that Fed is injured coudl not be clearer in that drop shot volley from Delpo. Fed stop after thinking he woudl "probably" not get it. Usually, he runs regardless.
posted on 5/6/12
Another mistake...sorry. for MOTD
posted on 5/6/12
Murray is very much in there for his maiden title. If Murray wins than it will be a coup. Coup de misketiere
posted on 5/6/12
Murray's been hovering around 2-3%.
posted on 6/6/12
Latest odds - market is more confident on Nadal now:
Nadal 72%
Djokovic 17%
Federer 7%
Ferrer 4%
posted on 6/6/12
federer vs ferrer final.
posted on 6/6/12
bookies rarely get it wrong but sometimes they do.
posted on 7/6/12
I wasn't impressed by Nadal today. Almagro played well and wasn't bothered my Rafa's shots despite having a SHBH. I felt that Djoko could have done lots of damage versus this Nadal.
posted on 7/6/12
We should find out more about Nadal's form on Friday. I do not think Ferrer has a chance to beat him but he will test him enough to show where Nadal is really at. None of the players Nadal had to play so far had any chance to really test him. He did get some pretty impressive scores, but he is always sort of capable of similar performances against these types of players. Too bad Andy lost today. I thought he could have provided Rafa with a really stern test.
HB, enjoy your trip. Report from the grounds if at all you can