Last season, we only won 3 games with Kevin Davies started, QPR in August, Wigan in October, and Stoke in November. In the other games, we drew 4, and lost 14.
Does it shock you, that there were 9 months between Bolton victories when Kevin Davies started the match? (6/11/11-21/08/12).
It doesnt shock me, the performances were obvious enough.
With Ngog, we won 8, drew 4 and lost 12. A much better return.
To put it into context, In that statistical return of each striker...
With Ngog, we earned 1.16 points a game (44 over a 38 game period)
With Davies we earned 0.47 points a game (18 over a 38 game period)
Remarkable.
ACTUAL TACTICS SECTION.
Coyle is picking a poor side. Simple as that, no movement or pace up front, no width, and a static central defence.
Defence-
Our most succesful defensive pairing last season was David Wheater and Tim Ream. We conceded 19 goals in the 11 1/2 games they were paired together (1.72 a game), below the 2.19 we averaged without them. We also won 15 points from these 11 1/2 games.
We have not replaced them. Ream started the season in poor form, but then the defence as a whole is completely organised with Knight there. Knight is far too error prone, static and lacking of intelligence to help keep a defence tight. Matt Mills has been his chosen partner...but here is our biggest issue:
Mills and Knight are too similar.
They are big, strong, static units. Any quick players are nipping past them easily, even Andy Reid...or losing them with quick run in a set piece. We need balance, which is why i mentioned Wheater and Ream. All defences need a balance: a big powerful centre back, and an intelligent one who reads the game well, but lacks physical nature. We dont have that. I would try Ream with Mills, or even Ricketts with Mills. Knight causes problems, he dis-organises our defence.
Warnock is a PL player still, keeps that side safe. Simple as that.
Mears has developed into a scapegoat. He is hesitant on the ball, and he hasnt got a good cross on him, but he is solid defensively. He may get caught out at the back on occasion but he isnt covered.
Midfield-
Spearing offers protection. A calming influence in the centre which we needed. Not a great player, but a welcome addition. Not as good as Muamba was at breaking up the play, but a better passer.
Andrews is getting flack, but he and Spearing are a strong stable central midfield unit. Andrews make very intelligent runs forward, something Afobe and KD are uncapable of. He is the intelligent player our centre midfield needs. Likes to get stuck in. Great work ethic.
The Wings-
Doesn't work.
Mark Davies is an attacking midfielder, on the right hand side.
Chris Eagles is a right winger/attacking midfielder, on the left hand side.
There is no width, both players like to come inside.
Warnock hasnt got the pace to overlap, but id rather he stayed back anyway to protect the defence.
Mears has got the pace to overlap, but he is missing a final delivery...when he ventures forward, Mavies isnt sitting in to protect the gap he leaves...instead wandering into the centre. This leaves us exposed.
It doesnt work.
Frontline-
Coyle likes Kevin Davies...god knows why. We play poorly with him.
Club legend yes, past his best, 100%. Shadow of his former self. But a threat from set pieces still.
Afobe is as poor. No intelligence, poor first touch, headless chicken. Plus he is a bad finisher, just as bad as Kevin Davies.
All in all, the balance is so wrong.
What would work?
Bogdan
Mears
Ricketts/Ream
Mills
Warnock
Lee
Spearing
Andrews
Petrov
Sordell/Eagles
Ngog
Perfectly balanced.
Tic Tac Toe, Tactic Woe.
posted on 5/10/12
I am certain if Ngog had as much game time as Davies this season he would have scored more than Davies has.
............
SKD played 9 scored 4
Ngog played 4 scored 0
So not sure about that
posted on 5/10/12
Coyle has been persistently taking Ngog off after about 60 minutes no matter what the situtation...i cant even remember him playing a whole game last season, can anyone else?
posted on 5/10/12
Im not trying to whip up anything, there are plenty of other people who wish to see him dropped as he is limiting our teams potential...Ive purely done an article about it because no-one else has.
And you are right Benny.. i will delete my post now.
posted on 5/10/12
if he was playing badly and not contributing i could understand it but at the moment he is the only forward who is scoring whether its set pieces or not.
We just can't afford to drop him at the moment as there is no one better which I admit is far from ideal but we have no choice until January or if Coyle goes and his replacement sees things differently.
posted on 5/10/12
I absolutely agree that we can't afford to drop him. I must say though, whilst I was happy that we equalised, a small part of me was gutted that KD scored twice. It means that he'll be starting the next couple of games.
I don't think anyone believes that KD will be dropped, it's just one of this strange circumstances that he is our only player scoring goals, but he is also a major contributor to us not creating chances in open play. The perfect catch 22 situation.
posted on 5/10/12
Holden's Hairstylist (U1689)
posted 20 hours, 3 minutes ago
Unfortunately the stats that you have produced to rubbish SKD, are unimportant and mean absolutely nothing.
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Not really, you can see a difference aesthetically. From knowing that, the results purely help to back up that we perform worse when he starts.
Do you not think there is a big enough difference between them for you to think that maybe it is true?
Have you seen Moneyball?
It would help express my idea slightly.
__________________________________________
I still can't accept you view. How many other players, mid fielders or strikers played in the same games? You can't level the problem solely at KD.
Sorry I have never seen Moneyball.
posted on 5/10/12
You should, excellent film about a baseball team who totally remodelled the system to challenge despite being the equivalent of Wigan.
But they designed a team that was financially sound and that would win tactically, but you HAD to use that system to see results.
I think the same applies here. We are terrible from open play, but it's down to the system. We won't score any less from set pieces also.
posted on 5/10/12
While I generally hold alot of the same views as you Holden I dont think you can compare Moneyball with football. Baseball is much more stat and individual based than football. I can see it being possible in cricket with bowling/batting averages.
I guess what it would translate to football is predicting how many goals would be needed from our midfielders and forwards based on previous defensive records. Then signing players based solely on how many goals they contribute. I cant see a system like that working in football, however, nobody in baseball did either.
posted on 5/10/12
This is what we need then - baseball is the anser!
Somone to step up to the plate - a heavy hitter, who will pitch in and score home runs!
And make Stuart Holden feel warm and fuzzy inside
I doubt that it is Babe Ngog
posted on 6/10/12
Allardyce uses stats religiously.
It would be for example,
What passing % have they got.
How many interceptions.
How many tackles.
Key passes.
Dispossessed/turnover.
Allardyce uses stats to sign players, an stats on choosing his 11, always has, always will. It works...but the premise of the idea from moneyball still remains here.