Morning all
Now we have got international football out the way I am now thinking about all things spurs again and the race for the top 4.
I think it is a 3 way race between Spurs, Arsenal and Chelsea for the last 2 CL places and I have been looking at our fixtures and also the form of all 3 clubs.
Most seasons 70pts usually gets you a CL place, which means we need 16 pts from 8 games or 2pts a game, which means win at home, draw away.
Of course Arsenal need to better that as even though they have a game in hand and have 9 left to play, they are on 50 pts so they will need to turn at least one of their remaining 4 away games into a win to get more than 69 pts. That is assuming they beat Man U at home as well of course. But they have 5 home games left, which will be an advantage. They still have Man U and Everton to play, but overall their fixtures are kind and TBH you could see them getting 70 pts.
Chelsea also have 9 left to play, but 5 of those are away games and some of of those are quite tricky (Liverpool, Man U and Southampton and Villa who will be fighting for survival). The home game against Spurs will be key as they will have to beat us to get more than 69 pts assuming home wins and away draws.
And then there is the form guide. Despite Spurs having a bit of a blip in the last two games, we are still 3rd in the prem league from table, behind Man U and Arsenal. Both Spurs and Arsenal are hovering round the 2 pts a game mark, where Chelsea are back in 7th in the form table averaging about 1.6 pts per game.
I didn't want to do another predictor article as doing a predictor will always be biased, but looking at the form guide and remaining fixtures I was trying gauge just what chance we had of top four. And looking at it from a neutral standpoint, to my surprise it looks like we may have to pip Chelsea to get top 4, which of course makes the game against them HUGE
Anyway, that was a bit of a ramble, but it has cheered me up a bit as I must admit I was a bit down after our defeat to Fulham, because it looked like we were going to do our <standard> collapse. A point at least needed at Swansea to keep us in the race.
Thoughts?
Top 4 - 70 pts?
posted on 28/3/13
A lot may depend on whether United win the title with 4 games to go, if they do then that means they visit Arsenal having already been crowned champions. Potentially that could be a win for Arsenal or a bore draw (I see no reason why Utd should rest players though), if the game was competitive then I think Utd would come out on top.
It may only be one game but according to the PL predictor feature this one will go right down to the wire between Spurs and Arsenal, and the difference between a win, draw or loss in that fixture may prove to be important.
posted on 28/3/13
The next 4 games are key. We have Reading and Norwich at home, WBA and Everton away. 10 points from that and I will be happy.
In the same time Spurs have Swansea, Everton and Chelsea.
If we are not above Spurs after we play Everton then I don't think we have a chance.
posted on 28/3/13
You can never take anything for granted. We could achieve 70 points and it not be enough. It's happened before where it hasn't. One thing 70 points would ensure is a slight improvement on Harry last season by AVB. Hopefully less than 70 will be enough as I'm struggling to see us achieve the 16 points required in the games we have left:
Swansea (A)
Everton (H)
Man City (H)
Wigan (A)
Southampton (H)
Stoke (A)
Sunderland (H)
Like you say 4 wins and 3 draws, or alternatively 5 wins and 1 draw. Maybe too much to ask from those above fixtures.
posted on 28/3/13
Oops forgot Chelsea (A) - 4 wins and 4 draws
posted on 28/3/13
I think Chelsea will definitely finish 3rd. Spurs or Arsenal will finish 4th. At this stage, points on board is all that matters and until Arsenal can win their game in hand against Everton, Spurs are favourites for 4th.
posted on 28/3/13
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posted on 28/3/13
Yeah either way it's going to be tight...
Same as you Number Eight - woudl always take a trophy over top 4, we have done well without top 4 and we can do again. I was too young to remember the last time we won a European trophy and would love to see us win it
posted on 28/3/13
I stopped predicting points when we lost at home to Fulham. All things considered i think it will be a miracle if we finish 4th now. We have the toughest run in by a long stretch and we have the biggest cup distraction (Chelsea have a bigger squad, so rotation is less of a problem). Our lads are already looking tired. I sometimes wonder whether AVB's not having ever played professionally makes him a little naive in this department. He's not fully aware of the physical and mental strain of playing so many fixtures at once in such a high intensity league. Even the best managers know that rotation is important at some point. 5th for me. I wouldn't mind betting that we end up closer to Liverpool in points than we do Arsenal or Chelsea.
posted on 28/3/13
Winning the Europa would be great, it would also mean a Super Cup game V the winner of the CL. Now that would be great!
Interesting that the final is in Amsterdam. The last final we played in Holland was in Rotterdam in 1963, exactly 50 years ago.
posted on 28/3/13
The 5th placed side will have no more than 68pts. Bookmark it