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2/3 chance we need to win

If we rule out the possibility that Palace will lose both games and take a -4 hit to their goal diff (I cannot really see that happening) then this is what it comes down to:

Leicester and Forest draw, we only need a draw
Leicester win, we need to win
Forest win, we need to win (and hope they don't get a panful of goals but that's also unlikely I think)

So I would say we probably need to win against Blackpool. When did we last beat Blackpool? Now would be a good time to start.

posted on 28/4/13

And just for completeness, if we lose against Blackpool we definitely cannot make it because one of Forest/Leicester would get past us with any permutation.

posted on 28/4/13

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posted on 29/4/13

We're a point and have a 2 worse goal difference than Palace. If they lose both their matches by 1 goal and we draw, that puts us on level points and level goal difference. Does it then go to goals scored?

If so, they're 3 in front on goals scored.

But, however unlikely it is, if they lose 1-0 twice and we draw 3-3 with Blackpool, we'll be equal on points - goal difference - goals scored - goals conceded. What happens then? Head to head record or drawing lots like Ireland and Holland at Italia 90?

As you may be able to tell, I'm bored on my lunch at work and trying to work out every way we can secure a play off spot.

posted on 29/4/13

WATOAOW -

SkyBet has us as second favourites to be promoted via playoffs

Brighton 5/2
Bolton 3/1
Palace 7/2
Watford 4/1
Forest 8/1
Leicester 20/1

posted on 29/4/13

Leicester will look like a good price if they end up sixth.

Unfortunately for them, unless Palace do completely implode, they won't be finishing any higher than seventh.

posted on 29/4/13

Watford look value at 4/1, but I wonder why Hull aren't included. If Watford get automatic, I think Hull will prob be 5/1.

posted on 29/4/13

WATOAOW - after goals scored it's head to head

posted on 29/4/13

Watford are very good value. They are the only possible team I fear for us. The others we will have a great edge over in a home leg.

posted on 29/4/13

Exiled. That's not good news then.

Ah well, we'll just have to beat Tom Ince...sorry...I mean Blackpool.

posted on 29/4/13

CEF. It must've been an oversight. Hull are on now on Oddschecker at 6/1. Interesting that the bookies have the 3rd place finishers as the outsiders of the current top six. Their odds setter must think that just missing out on second place is really going to affect them in the play offs. Saying that, as neither are actually definite to end up in the play offs, I'm guessing whichever team does end up third will shorten a bit.

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