Read 'Em and Weep

It really needs the infographic they show but here's the first article...

Bolton's defense allows a staggering amount of shots

Bolton's defense has been bad this year, well worse than bad really, but suffice to say following Bolton so far this season has been a thankless task.

The club has been particular poor at the prevention of goals, something that I think springs from them giving up a rather large amount of shots. They have given up 70 shots so far this season in league play, an average of 14 shots per game. Of those 70 shots, the Bolton defense managed to block 12, meaning 58 shots have rocketed towards Adam Bogan's goal.

To get a better picture of what Bogdan has faced so far this season, consider the graphic below. It shows the location of shots fired passed the Bolton defense, the larger the circle the more shots in that area. The blue "X"s indicate goals scored during the run of play.

The first impression is that the vast majority of shots by Bolton's opponents that have been on frame have been low. In fact, 87.5% of opponent's shots on goal have been on target in the lower half of the goal. I'm not exactly sure why this is, to be honest, but it is an interesting pattern. Perhaps not surprisingly, 7 of the 8 run-of-play goals allowed by Bolton have also resulted from low shots. This however, does not mean that Bogdan is struggling to stop low shots as his save percentage on low shots (14/21 or 66.7%) is the same as it is on high shots (2/3 or 66.7%).

In fact, looking at these numbers, 66.7% save percentage is respectable for a starting keeper, it is clear that Bogdan should not be blamed as the main problem behind Bolton's goal allowed situation. The defense needs to surrender less shots overall or at least start blocking a higher percentage of the shots opponents are taking. Until this is remedied, or Bogdan starts putting up hockey goalie-esque save percentages, Bolton are going to continue to hemorrhage goals.

and the second...

Is Jay Spearing more effective without Medo at his side?

We are just five matches into the Championship season and to say that it has not gone well for Bolton Wanderers is a bit of an understatement. From those five outings, Bolton have returned with just two points, having scored a grand total of three goals while allowing ten at the other end. In four of those five matches, the midfield has been anchored by the partnership of Medo Kamara and Jay Spearing, a pairing that saw its beginnings under Dougie Freedman last season.

There is no question that the two players are individually very good as central midfielders, especially in the Championship. Yet despite their quality, the results are not coming. It has led us to wonder: is it possible to have too much of a good thing?

Following Medo's signing in the January transfer window last season, the pair of Kamara and Spearing have started a total of seven matches together. In those seven matches, Bolton Wanderers won on just two occasions, taking the three points at Blackburn Rovers and at home to Wolverhampton Wanderers. They lost four times, leaving the Charlton Athletic, Nottingham Forest, Queens Park Rangers, and Blackburn Rovers (the last three came this season) empty handed. The remaining match was a draw, coming earlier this season at home against Reading. In those seven matches, Bolton have scored seven goals while conceding 12, leading to an average of one point per game, one goal scored per game, and 1.7 conceded per game. Keep in mind that seven games is a small sample size and not one to build a definitive trend off of.

Prior to Medo's signing, Jay Spearing was the established central midfielder with a number of different partnerships that included Keith Andrews, Josh Vela, Darren Pratley, Mark Davies, and others. Jay Spearing started 33 matches last season without Medo Kamara next to him. In that span, Bolton wanderers won 13, lost ten, and drew ten for an average of 1.48 points per game. With Jay Spearing in the center on his own, Bolton Wanderers scored 50 goals and conceded 46 for averages of 1.51 goals scored per game and and 1.39 conceded per game.

Then, there's Medo himself. The midfielder has not had much of a chance to start matches without Jay Spearing at his side but he has played in a few matches on his own. In five matches with just Medo in the center of the park, Bolton Wanderers have won one, lost one, and drawn three. They have scored nine goals and conceded eight for averages of 1.8 goals scored and 1.6 goals against per game, respectively. In Medo's five games, Bolton Wanderers have taken six points for an average of 1.2 points per game.

Perhaps the biggest question to the disparity in the points per game that Bolton Wanderers earn with just Jay Spearing in the center (1.48), just Medo Kamara (1.2), and the pair (1) is that their play styles are far too similar to be effective together. Both players are destroyer-type midfielders. The enforcers, if you will. They operate in the middle third of the field, moving to the edge of each penalty area when necessary but rarely stepping inside. Their job is to win the ball in the center of the park and start the next attack by getting the ball to the wings or the attacking midfielder. Their passing rates are among the best on the team (Jay Spearing has completed 87.1% this season to lead the team compared to Medo's 79.7%) but this is because their passes are largely lateral or reverse, rather than going forward.

Against Blackburn, this is what got both Jay Spearing & Medo Kamara as well as Bolton Wanderers in trouble. Their passing on the day was largely superb with Spearing completing 90% of his attempts and Medo completing 89%. In fact, both figures were above their season averages. This is due to their sideways passing being very good on the day. The issues happened with attempts going forward. Medo and Spearing simply could not carve out passes to advance the play and lost the ball in the midfield with their opponents intercepting the attempts before they reached their targets.

The two players like going forward themselves with Kamara fancying a long-range effort in particular but rarely do their chances lead to an actual goal. More often than not, their shots come from 20-30 yards out and more often than not, they end up high, wide, or a combination of the two.

It seems that what Bolton are really missing is someone that can possess the ball. They're missing a Mark Davies or a Stu Holden that can carry the ball forward and make an intelligent pass on the edge of the area rather than trying the incisive ball from the halfway line.

The Medo Kamara & Jay Spearing midfield partnership is still young and has plenty of room to grow but at the moment, it is not helping Bolton Wanderers.

This is a link to the infographic alone. Try viewing this (for the first article)...

http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/3152127/goalsshots.jpg

Cheers Fin.

Have to agree about kamara. I have no idea what to do with our defence but would go with what worked last season when we were going well until freedman panicked and went just one up front in some later games. I would axe knight from the team completely, make spearing capt and go with.
Bogdan
Clinton,wheater,ream,Tierney.
Lee,pratley,spearing,eagles.
Ngog,cravies.
Get the game won, kamara can come on to close the game down.

I can't go on that site because every time I do, my laptop locks up and I have to re-boot it.
****
Dump the laptop and get a proper PC then, BB

Do you think I'm made of money, man....?

I've had this laptop since 1997 and there's a few good miles left in it yet.

Microsoft Word 97 hasn't let me down so far.

Anyway, don't laugh at me.

At least I don't use a Mac like Madnotlobian.

Luddite.......

Don't forget you posh buggers XP ends apr 2014 you need to upgrade your OS by then.
I'm upgrading to DOS and Semaphore.

By Semaphore do you mean an OS or actual, real flags?

Wot you wave.......

Just a white flag. I surrender in my attempt to find a glimmer of hope for my football team.
Such a bad start to a new campaign the troops are exhausted it is for the best.