*Posted on my own club board with little response so opened it up to other clubs starting with London area*
Welcome to the first in a series of monthly football related complex problems.
Are you a brainy enough wolf to solve the puzzle?
ROUND ONE
What is the probability of guessing all 8 groups correctly in the world cup draw?
Some pointers:
Order does not matter per group (combination not permutation)
8 seeded teams will definitely not be in the same group as each other.
Other rules apply ( outlined below)
Fifa WC 2014 draw rules
*32 teams divided into 4 pots of 8 teams
* All eight Pot 1 teams will be drawn into groups in order from A to H.
* One of the nine European teams in Pot 4 will be randomly drawn and moved to Pot 2.
* One of Brazil, Argentina, Colombia or Uruguay from Pot 1 will be drawn out to be grouped with this European team.
* FIFA will accomplish this by placing Brazil, Argentina, Colombia and Uruguay into a temporary "Pot X."
* The nation drawn from "Pot X" will be in the same group as the European team that was moved to Pot 2.
The last important rule is that if Ecuador or Chile are drawn in a group that already contains a South American team they will placed in the next group that does not contain a South American team (from A-H).
Once these rules have been applied the draw will assign selected teams to chosen groups with no further restrictions applied.
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Correct answer is worth 100 points and the first correct answer submitted is the winner.
If no one correctly calculates the probability, the points will roll over to Jan brainy wolf puzzle but 50 points will also be awarded for the best attempt.
Answer must show your calculations AND the answer.
The answer alone is not enough to win.
GOOD LUCK!!!!
Dec: Brainy wolf R1(extended)
posted on 6/12/13
posted on 6/12/13
Correct answer is worth 100 points. Should be worth a nobel prize.
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billiant
posted on 6/12/13
Ask me one on quantum physics, I'm better at that.
posted on 6/12/13
I will have a go at solving this very difficult equation.
Group A: Brazil, Croatia, Mexico, Cameroon.
Group B: Spain, Netherlands, Chile, Australia.
Group C: Colombia, Greece, Ivory Coast, Japan.
Group D: Uruguay, Costa Rica, England, Italy.
Group E: Switzerland, Ecuador, France, Honduras.
Group F: Argentina, Bosnia-Hercegovina, Iran, Nigeria.
Group G: Germany, Portugal, Ghana, USA.
Group H: Belgium, Algeria, Russia, South Korea.
Now the way that I come to this calculation is that I tuned my TV to the appropriate channel, poured myself a Pymmes, and noted each team as the presenter read them out on the screen, and then bingo, I finally came up with the correct answer.
posted on 6/12/13
It's taken me a while, had to recheck my calculations a few times to be sure I wouldn't embarrass myself!
But I'm fairly confident I've nailed it.
Is it a 1 in 32 chance?
posted on 7/12/13
@Ollie,
I'm doing a Maths and Stats degree too but it's above my abilities. What year are you?
posted on 7/12/13
Comment Deleted by Site Moderator
posted on 7/12/13
If I was asking a serious question and I didn't know the answer the Arsenal board aka "The Brain-trust" would be the last place I would go if I had serious aspirations of getting the right solution.
posted on 7/12/13
I. Gussing you would need to predict 4096 different combinations to be sure of getting the right answer
So my answer 1 in 4096 (but tbere is only a 1 in 5 chance of that being correct with only a 4% certainty of that)
posted on 13/12/13
I bet you wished you'd ignored him like we all do?