Well, the Premier League super computer has predicted that Villa will finish 18th this season (and therefore get relegated). The BBC predictor puts us at 17th and various experts have tipped us to struggle very badly this season. All of which is understandable, at first glance. But let me try to convince you why I think we will be OK this season.
Firstly, a lot of last season's dross has left the club already. HELENIUS, SYLLA, LUNA, TONEV, BOWERY and DELFENOUSO are all gone and will not feature this season!. Already an improvement? It has to be.
Secondly, the 'Bomb Squad' players. GIVEN, HUTTON, N'ZOGBIA and BENT are all back in the fold. So that's four very experienced full international footballers to add to our squad this season. If we can get Bent back to somewhere near his best, that would be like a great 'signing'. N'Zogbia is a creative, dangerous, talented £10m footballer too (another great 'signing' perhaps?). The other two add experience and depth to our squad. Something we have been crying out for under Lambert.
Thirdly, returning players. OKORE is also like a very good 'signing'. This guy looked great in his three games for us, before getting injured. He was wanted by Chelsea remember and was starring for Denmark before his injury. KOZAK is a £7m forward who scored some important goals for us before getting injured in November. When he settles, could he also effectively become another good 'signing'? Don't forget too that we were without BENTEKE for a third of last season. This guy was rated at £25m a year ago.
Fourthly, signings. CISSOKHO is a defender who has played for Porto, Inter, Liverpool and Valencia (off the top of my head). RICHARDSON is a proven, solid, versatile, experienced player. COLE and SENDEROS again provide depth and experience and IF we can land SANCHEZ, we have another highly experienced, international footballer, who featured strongly in a very good Colombia team in the World Cup.
Fifthly, that brings me to VLAAR. Providing we keep him, we possess one of the stars of this summer's World Cup.
Add to all of this, the appointment of ROY KEANE as number two. Keane may just be more suited as a number two than manager. We will see but it is at least an interesting appointment.
Finally, ask yourself this question. Outside of the top six teams, can there possibly be another squad containing TWENTY ONE (21) FULL INTERNATIONALS? OK, three of these are on loan out now, but is there any other club? This would become TWENTY TWO (22), if we land Sanchez!
So, to last season, let's add these EXPERIENCED, FULL INTERNATIONAL footballers: OKORE, BENTEKE, KOZAK, N'ZOGBIA, BENT, GIVEN, HUTTON, CISSOKHO, COLE, SENDEROS (and SANCHEZ?).
Let's add KEANE too. Are you really still saying that we are not better off than last season? I'm not saying we will definitely finish top half. I'd be happy with anything 14th upwards, to be honest. But just like the last two seasons, the league will contain 7 teams who are a class above everyone else, another 3 who will have a go and 10 who will scrap out the minor placings. I don't see why we cannot finish top of the bottom tier, which equates to mid-table.
THe case for why we will be OK this season
posted on 14/8/14
You're sitting nicely in 2nd at the moment and they expect you to drop to 18th? That's crazy.
posted on 14/8/14
I fancy Villa to stay up TBH.
They could easily go down (almost anyone from the bottom 13 could do) Newcastle and Stoke look a step above you, aside from that I can't say any team looks any better than you.... would fancy you to finish around 14th.
posted on 14/8/14
Some very good points made, but the one thing I feel is that Lambert despite some of his failings seems to have kept the good ship Villa on the straight & narrow.
It appears he hasn't let the sale become an excuse for creating problems. He just gets on with it. His experience as a manager will be vital.
Other teams who have relative novices as managers in the prem may struggle. Swansea, WBA, Soton & Burnley will all struggle in my opinion.
Villa will have it tough, but the squad is older & wiser and with the additions, including the bomb squad, it will only make us stronger.
posted on 14/8/14
tbh you'll be very lucky to make it through this round of the capital one cup so at least thats less games for your team
posted on 14/8/14
I agree with this post. Last summer bbc predicted us to finish 8th. We ended up 15th and very close to relegation. A lot of this was down to injuries to first team and key players - Benteke, Okore, Kozak and N'Zogbia were out for a lot of if not all of last season. Vlaar also missed significant parts of the season. Many thought we would do well due to the previous season's excellent end to the season, where we played really well like beating Sunderland 6-1. However, this season we are predicted to do badly due to a bad end to last season.
Our summer signings have actually been better than last summer. Cole is old and injury prone but still has more technical ability and creativity than most of our midfield and when fit gives us a good option. Cissokho has played in the Champions League and at a number of big clubs while Senderos has featured in two World Cups and is much better backup than the likes of Baker and Clark. Richardson is a solid utility player with a lot of experience who was one of Fulham's better players last season. If we can recruit Carlos Sanchez to play in midfield over Westwood who is not good enough at this level, then we could feasibly finish mid table. Add to that we have one of the most promising players to emerge from our Academy in decades in Jack Grealish (who has loads more talent than players like Agbonlahor ever had) and the likes of Bent coming back, we have a much more formidable squad than recent seasons. I wouldn't swap our squad for anyone else's except the top 7 and Newcastle. Certainly our squad is on a par if not better than the likes of Stoke and Sunderland.
That is not to say I like our current situation - we need a buyer, much more investment in the squad, and a better manager in my view - but talk of relegation is surprising given we had multiple injuries and a thinner squad last season and still survived despite losing most of our last 10 games. Once again the press are judging on the end of last season which could ultimately prove to be well off the mark given this is a totally new campaign. If we stay clear of injuries, fingers crossed, I think we could credibly finish between 9th and 12th.
posted on 14/8/14
Until our collapse after beating Chelsea we were fine last season; we could have made 9th. I put the uninspiring performances and collapse down to the backroom troubles, which must have affected the team badly. OK the injuries didn't help but I think it was the backroom troubles which were the main cause.
Backroom troubles are behind us and overall we're stronger. Without Benteke we need goals from Bent, Weimann and others to have a good season, but even if we're a bit short on goals I think we'll steer clear of trouble.
Reckon the Stoke match will be tight. If we're sharp up front we can win it. If our new-look defence stutters a bit we can lose it.
posted on 14/8/14
Very good post LionBrad.
Along with others I think subject to transfer Window not being a disaster with certain outs that we are much stronger all round.
Will be another rollercoaster I expect but on paper there are weaker teams and at present we would hope to survive without last year's dramas.
Could do with Vlaar staying but Benteke in that squad is the key.
posted on 15/8/14
villa are certainties for the drop.
about time too
posted on 15/8/14
Stoke aren't miles above you on paper but in reality a more stable club that has had some better recent managers than you....
Wonder if the home crowd helps as well, not that yours is bad just that theirs is particularly good.