Thought I'd write an article to point out a few things in view of the increasing speculation regarding the PL losing its 4th CL spot:
Losing 4th is far from a given, and almost definitely won't happen this season
The final standings are still very much in the balance, but by the end of this season, England should still retain one of the top 3 spots in the European country rankings.
As things stand, England are in second place.
Germany (3rd) overtaking England would probably require Bayern to win the CL. Italy (4th) would probably need to win both European trophies and place their third team in the final to challenge England's position.
As it's impossible for both Bayern AND Juve to win the CL, it's extremely unlikely for England to drop to 4th at the end of the season, and could even retain second place.
See current standings here:
http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/crank2015.html
(This site updates standings about an hour after the games are played, giving a near-real-time picture of how things are panning out.)
The real battle will be fought out next season...
For ranking purposes, the results of the 10/11 season drop off at the start of next season. England will drop 18.3 points, to Germany's 15.6 and Italy's 11.6.
Regardless of how things finish this year, all 3 leagues will be within striking distance of each other, and unless the representatives of one of those countries implode early on, the final outcome will be uncertain until the sharp end of proceedings.
The PL would probably need to be the worst of the 3 again in order to drop out of the top 3.
This is how next season would start as things stand.
http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/crank2016.html
...and probably for a year or two thereafter
Moving ahead, the current differences are so slim that it would require one of these leagues to totally collapse (as Italy did a few seasons back) for the other 2 to have their positions ensured for a few years.
Having far fewer points to defend (i.e. dropping off the rankings at the start of each season), Italy appear to be at an advantage. England and Germany will have a similar amount of points to defend in order to stay ahead.
Italy could be experiencing a false dawn
In reality though, having a lot fewer points to defend also implies that you have been a lot worse in the recent past. In fact, this season is the first in the entire 5-year series where Italy has outscored either one of the BL or PL, let alone both. It's far too early to say whether this is the start of a trend, or a mere flash in the pan.
CL slots aren't lost immediately
4 slots are guaranteed for next season. Losing 4th place in the country rankings this year would mean not having a 4th team in 2016-17. Losing it next season would mean not having one in 2017-18. And so forth. It could be some time before we see just 3 PL sides in the CL...if at all.
Losing 4th CL slot could be just a 1-year blip...
Even if the PL did fall below the BL and Serie A, it would likely be by a very small margin that could be clawed back the following season. As country rankings are worked out on the average score for each club, having the top 6 clubs in Europe ought to return better average scores than having 7.
...but the Europa League needs to be taken more seriously
Perhaps the promise of CL footy for the EL winners will signal a change in attitude towards the latter. Despite Chelsea's win a couple of years ago, what's clear is that one of the reasons England's ranking is suffering is from a lack of results in the EL. The PL's 5th-7th placed clubs need to start pulling their weight in Europe if they don't want to be having to aim even higher domestically in order to achieve CL footy.
On the PL losing its 4th CL berth
posted on 25/4/15
There will be about a 14 point swing in Italy's favour, and we are starting next season behind Germany.
The gap will be about 2 points between us and Italy, and the season after we lose another 4 points more than Italy.
Simply put we will have to out score Italy next season or we will lose a place.
posted on 25/4/15
I think Wenger will want to win the CL ne season to complete his trophy set before he retires.
posted on 25/4/15
comment by I am gooner now (U16927)
posted 4 hours, 13 minutes ago
I think Wenger will want to win the CL ne season to complete his trophy set before he retires.
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Did you work that out all by yourself?
posted on 26/4/15
"Arsenal had Barcelona at their peak twice in a row, as well as Bayern at their peak two years in a row."
At what stage of the competition? Bear in mind this is talking about coefficients and points accumulation for that rather than your chances of winning it.
posted on 26/4/15
comment by D'Jeezus Mackaroni (U1137)
posted 15 hours, 38 minutes ago
Simply put we will have to out score Italy next season or we will lose a place.
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Erm, that's the long and short of my mile-long article, yes.
Doesn't seem to me like such a big ask, especially as this year is the only one Serie A have outscored the PL in the 5-year series.
BL has also been alternating of late good and bad seasons in Europe, so even though they have an advantage I'm not so sure they're out of danger.
posted on 26/4/15
comment by TCW (U6489)
posted 20 hours, 21 minutes ago
The prem money for middling teams is still very high ioag. They probably look at EL and think that the money to effort payoff is way too low. I do think it's a shame. It can be a very very long road to the final though.
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This is one of the essential problems, imo: for club owners and shareholders, PL football really has become a business more than an entertainment or pastime.
Yeah, the clubs and league on the whole are really well run financially, but business considerations have become more important than sporting ones.
If you think about, from a sporting perspective it's totally ridiculous not to have a really serious crack at winning a European competition you might have a fair chance of winning in order to try, and more often than not fail, to qualify for a competition in which you have little to no hope.
In years gone by, clubs would dream of winning a trophy and grab the opportunity with both hands when it arose. Nowadays the majority of clubs in the PL do not harbour any such ambition.
Sad really.
posted on 26/4/15
comment by itsonlyagame - let's go bowling! (U6426)
posted 2 hours, 28 minutes ago
comment by D'Jeezus Mackaroni (U1137)
posted 15 hours, 38 minutes ago
Simply put we will have to out score Italy next season or we will lose a place.
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Erm, that's the long and short of my mile-long article, yes.
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Not really. You downplay the likelihood of us losing a place quite a lot when in fact it is a very realistic possibility.
Also you say Bayern would have to win the CL for Germany to overtake us, when in fact it is already guaranteed Germany will be ahead of us for next season.
posted on 26/4/15
comment by D'Jeezus Mackaroni (U1137)
posted 8 minutes ago
Not really. You downplay the likelihood of us losing a place quite a lot when in fact it is a very realistic possibility.
Also you say Bayern would have to win the CL for Germany to overtake us, when in fact it is already guaranteed Germany will be ahead of us for next season.
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I downplay the likelihood of losing it this season, because it looks like a very remote possibility - if indeed it's possible at all (haven't crunched all the numbers).
Re Bayern, bear in mind that what decides the allocation of European places is how the 5-year ranking stands at the end of each season, not how it starts. I am not sure it is even mathematically possible for Germany to overtake you at the end of this season - I think it is, but it would almost certainly require Bayern playing the final, if not winning the thing outright.
At the start of next season you'll be looking solely at 4 seasons-worth of results, not five.
Looking ahead, as mentioned, the initial difference in favour of the BL next year will be very slim, so they are very much in the battle.
As a result, it means that the PL would have to outscore one of the other two, not both, providing it's not my a minimal margin. The fact that Serie A's return to the top table is very much unconfirmed at this stage, and that the BL has been see-sawing a bit, makes me think it is by no means a given that the PL will lose that 4th slot at the end of next season.
Two years on, Italy continue to have fewer points to defend, so I expect the tussle to continue if none of the leagues put in an outstanding European next season to pull clear.
The resources available to the PL teams will continue to dwarf those of the other sides, and the teams in transition ought to be more settled, so even if the PL did lose that slot for a season or two, they should still be in with a very good chance of regaining after not too long.
posted on 26/4/15
And btw, if Bayern were to lose both games to Barça, Germany would start next year just 1.4 points ahead of the PL, and will drop exactly the same number of points as the PL at the end of the season, so dspite the advantage, they are anything but high and dry. They're very much in the mix for losing the 4th CL slot.
posted on 26/4/15
FORZA ITALIA.