It occurs to me that we have many debates on here about how good individual players are, how good the manager is, how good the backroom staff are and whether the owners are good or bad for the club. We usually set the bar of expectation for the season to follow a little higher than our finishing position in the current season and say what or who we want/need to take the club forward. My question is: are our expectations entirely realistic or, in fact, completely unrealistic?
Take a few comments I’ve read on these pages over the last few days:
“.. Pearson needs to do much better next season .."
“ …. how about attracting a Cambiasso in his prime …"
“ … if we are going to be a mid-table Premier League club …"
“…. not good enough for the level we are trying to get to …"
etc. etc.
We could finish as high as fourteenth this year. It’s true that we’ve approached this via a tortuous route, but this season's targets have surely been met and, arguably, exceeded. There are, however, some who doubt the players, maybe even the owners and many, many more still suggesting that the manager should be replaced as he: “can’t take us any further". If we go down next season a fresh approach might well be required, but even if we don’t I suspect that many will still be dissatisfied – their discontent possibly fueled by an expectation that is quite unrealistic.
Look at the Premier League. The top five will almost certainly be the top five again next season. Then there are teams like Tottenham and Everton, big clubs who perennially sit just outside the elite. Then there are the established Premier League overachievers: Swansea, Southampton, Stoke and, maybe now, Crystal Palace. If we finish behind those clubs then we are already 12th. Then, for lower positions in the table, we might be competing against teams like Newcastle, Aston Villa, Sunderland, West Ham and West Brom who are all relatively big, established PL clubs, who all have fans with very high expectations.
I guess the pinnacle aim for Leicester fans who approach this with a bit of realism would say they want a club who finish in the top half of the Premier League and go on a cup run now and again. O’Neill built a side that consistently did this and won two trophies so is it really beyond us now? The problem, of course, is that is exactly the same aim of all of those clubs mentioned that are outside the top 5, plus those ambitious clubs that have just been promoted, plus all those other clubs in the bottom half of the table and plus about another 10 clubs currently in the Championship and maybe another 5 that we don’t know about yet, but will shortly attract serious investment.
If we finish 14th-17th next term then it’s likely that we’ll be around the relegation scrap again until late into the season. It’s also not a great deal of progress from where we’re likely to finish this season. Will our more critical fans accept this next season? Will there be calls for Pearson to be sacked? If we finish between 12th and 17th then I predict that those calling for the manager’s head will be significant in number. A finish between 7th and 12th would probably be lauded almost universally next season, although a few will still moan.
“We must push on to reach our full potential". “Nigel isn’t the man to take us further". “We need some serious investment in quality". I reckon that a lot of these sentiments will be expressed if we fall below that narrow band of 7th to 12th next season. It’s a narrow, extremely competitive and precarious ledge on which to balance and it’s the aspiration of maybe 20-30 teams to occupy those five or six places.
When academics compile those charts about who is the biggest club or most successful club; fed by a number of facts around games won, crowds attracted, merchandising, trophies won etc. etc. Leicester are invariably placed somewhere between 19th-22nd place. That’s around the bottom of the Premier League or top of the Championship.
My contention is this. As fans we should aspire to more, to dream of success and to crave progression as it is these dreams that make following a football team such fun. It’s a sobering thought, however, that when we consider it with an unhealthy dose of realism we may actually already be close to the pinnacle of what we can realistically achieve.
Leicester City: Unhealthy dose of realism
posted on 21/5/15
Sorry Mersey - feeble humour attempt which didn't come out in print!!
posted on 21/5/15
Don't worry JG - I've had plenty of those in my time!
posted on 21/5/15
Excellent thread, which I've enjoyed very much.
Personally, I'm encouraged that there is some real ambition amongst us, for City to be something more than an extra in the background, tempered by a sensible but not neutering realism.
PS I knew JG was jesting.
posted on 22/5/15
I think we are being a bit pessimistic about our progression though. Look at what happened the season we lost to Watford in the semis, we were brilliant for the first half and awful for the second, this showed we had the ability, we just needed to be more consistent. The extra years experience gave us that and we went on to dominate the league.
This season we've proven that we're actually a very decent side but we've been too inconsistent but now that appears to have changed too. Again I expect us to continue to get better next season. It seems inevitable to me.
Pearson will no doubt make some more quality signings and it will be easier to fill the gaps this time around now that we've proven we're a good side and deserve to be in this league.
Kramaric will also be like having a new player, I expect him to shine next season.
I think we'll finish above 13th but I reckon we can make top 10.
As for club progression, surely thats just going to happen naturally isn't it? We stayed up this season and now we have bit more coin and it but more buying power so our chances of improving should increase. Stay up next season and there is talk of the stadium being extended. More fans, more revenue, more to spend on players, finish higher in the league, get more money and continue the cycle.
Is Pearson the man to do it? Yes absolutely. If he can sign Cambiasso then he can sign other big players. If Cambiasso rates him as a manager then that's pretty impressive given who he's played for in the past.
Have more faith 👍
posted on 22/5/15
'Progression' is a word that is open to much interpretation. There are some that see progression for us as a change in manager, an influx of new players and certainly the spending of large amounts of money to chase a top 8 dream.
My own view is that progression for us would be building on what we have.
The owners have shown patience this season and it's been rewarded; in spite of our middle part to the season it's clear we've progressed from last season.
We have the infrastructure, the management team and the scouting network to make progress again next season.
I recall Vichai making a statement this time last year about spending £180m over three years to make us a top 5 club. Well, if that's the aspiration, then I'd say we've made steps in the right direction this season.
I don't think we should be spending huge sums to get there next season. The likes of Leeds' Champions League pursuit are still too fresh in the memory for me, and look at where they are now.
The West Brom model is for me a good example of how to operate in this league. They invested modest sums each year to make incremental (and financially sustainable) improvements to their squad. OK, it didn't always work out, but I see them now as an established Premier League side, in spite of some recent hiccups in terms of who they've hired to manage them.
I don't see that we're ever going to achieve top 5, as others have pointed out here I think that would be punching way above our weight.
Top 8 would be an incredible achievement, but I don't think we should be aiming for that next season either.
Any improvement on 14/15th should be lauded. As an objective I think we should be looking to achieve 10th to 12th next season, while not running a business deficit. Remember that our owners are not cash cows to be bled dry, they are trying to run a sustainable business.
posted on 22/5/15
Pearson has already shown that he doesn't need to spend a lot of money to bring in quality players. I see no reason why we won't be able to fill the gaps to make us better next season.
Our current performances have proven that we're good enough to be a top 10 side, we just need a few more additions and the same method of play next season and I have no doubt we'll do well.
I only see good things ahead for this club and I can't wait for next season.
posted on 22/5/15
Hallgreen,
I think that is a really astute post and hits the nail on the head for me. We should look for progression, of course we should, but this should be steady accumulation rather than boom or bust. The primary objective should now be to establish ourselves in the Premier League. West Brom, who you mention, had to bounce between the top two leagues for a while and it would be great if we didn’t have to do this.
Two or three seasons of consolidation or steady improvement would give us a solid base from which to build. Revenue streams will increase, infrastructure will be better and we may well have better quality players on the pitch. That’s the point at which, if we are ambitious enough, we should look at what it would take us to chip away at the monopoly of the elite.
We only have to look at the Peter Taylor years, however, to remind ourselves how quickly that solid foundation can be destroyed and how long it takes to get back once it has been. Changing the manager is one option that could propel us forward much quicker but, get it wrong, and everything could come crashing down around our ears. I’m grateful that PL survival means that is a gamble that we don’t have to take.
posted on 22/5/15
To be honest we aren't that far off now being a top half team, IF we had won some and drawn others that we should have earlier in the season where we didn't for various reasons including mistakes, missed chances and incredibly bad referee decisions we could have been up there.
I am working on the assumption we agree that we have deserved to win the games in our recent run.
Why do I like Pearson, well I see him as one of our own, like I did Little and MO, he's a major part of that overall feeling that the Clubs going places.
Not on results ( of course not yet ) but i would say he's our Mourinho or Ferguson, the Club does better with him and I fear what will happen ( as it did before with both him and MO ) if the Club let him go!
posted on 22/5/15
Ps we all hope and want our Club to do better and be bigger etc but that's a complete difference to the arrogance of expecting it!
posted on 22/5/15
I agree TB. This club is his now in my opinion. What he's done in terms of reshaping it from the first team to the academy and the way he's got everyone throughout the club to pull towards his way of thinking without any internal disagreements, is quite a testament to the guys ability and like ability.
He's the best manager we've ever had and he'll achieve more than MON if we keep hold of him and he does become our Mourinho, Ferguson or Wenger. Stability is key here, allow him to build a competitive team and he will.