The state of Villa

A new manager's in, the summer's gone, and so has the transfer window. Maybe a good time to reflect on the state of our club, and where it's going. Here's my thoughts.

Finances
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Strangely, this is one area I'm not worried about. The owner's rich, but not mega-rich. Lerner probably took a hit when the global financial crisis arose, but if the family trust is set up decently then maybe not too much of one. However it may have affected how much he's been willing or able to invest in the club. But we're still in a lot better position than an awful lot of PL teams who have enthusiastic owners, but with nothing like the resources.

The policy for the moment seems to be to put the club's finances on a sustainable basis. This seems sensible. There is still global financial uncertainty which may in time impact on the PL, how much is anybody's guess. But think what would happen if Sky pulled the plug, even if only partially. And a wages bill which consumes the overwhelming part of a club's income is extremely dodgy. So maybe a period of adjustment or retrenchment or whatever you like to call it is a good thing. Thinking longer into the future, what happens when Lerner decides it's time to call it a day? A soundly based club may still offer a good investment to others; I shudder think what would happen to Chelsea or City if their current owners moved out, considering the debt they're holding.

Considering recent events, there's the question of what happened to the income from selling Milner, Young and Downing. Even taking into account the signings of Bent and others, and things like managerial compensation packages, there's a huge "profit" sitting around. Even here I'm not too worried, although with more qualification. The major question is, was this summer a good time to spend it? With the gap left by the above three, you might think so. But who could we have bought? Well, we did buy N'Zogbia, although that only partly fills the gap. But with managerial and other changes, is it a good time to make further major decisions on who to buy? Or is it better to wait until a clear need is established, remembering that the money can only be spent once? To me the major, and unanswered, question is really whether or not there is money there to invest in players in due course, because the current squad lacks quality in some key areas, even allowing for players coming through.

So, overall, I'm not worried about the basics of the clubs finances, but wonder about what flexibility there is in investing over the medium term. Outside MU, MC, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool I think we're one of the strongest, possibly the strongest, financially of the PL clubs, and reckon there is scope for further player investment affecting that position, but does the owner see it that way?

The Team
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This is where I think there's much more to question. Last season threw into stark relief two contrasting approaches to the way the team can go. On the one hand there was the legacy of the MON era, a counter-attacking team that relied on a solid defence of a traditional style to make it difficult for opposing teams, coupled with a fast attack to catch opponents on the hop. The other was the approach which Houllier brought, good movement of players further up the pitch, a determination to keep the ball and therefore control, and the ability to pressurise the opposition, from the defence (e.g. Walker) forwards.

It was pretty evident that the approaches don't mix, at least not very well. Trouble is, with our current squad we have players identified with each approach. There's no doubt that the younger players relished what they were getting from Houllier and McAllister. And some of the older players hated it. My own feeling is quite clear; if we go the traditional route we'll be stuck with a system which had already reached its limitations under MON, which more and more PL teams are finding ways of dealing with, and where a reasonable season will see us mid table, and a poor one not far off the bottom.

At the moment the traditional route seems to have the upper hand. Is that just McLeish being cautious? He's finding Dunne and Collins useful at the moment; does he see them as the future? I'm not unhappy with this summer's signings, Given and N'Zogbia are both good players for us, Jenas is capable of being an adventurous mid-fielder, and Hutton is at least as good as Young. But I'll be very worried if the current policy of limiting the use of Albrighton, Clark, Bannan and Herd, and others, continues.

In short, I think the team is at the crossroads. McLeish isn't the obvious choice to take us away from the MON approach; perhaps he will surprise us. But I think sorting out which way we go, over the coming months, will define what sort of future Villa has, for years ahead.