10 points from 6 games.
If you take that form over a 46 game period we'll end with 77 points. This has been enough to get a team in the play offs 5 out of the last 6 seasons.
Interestingly enough, we had 10 points at this time last year. Coming from three wins a draw and 2 defeats.
Last year, everyone seemed to think we were destined for automatic promotion.
This year, there's a general sense of negativity.
The point I'm making is that it's too early to tell. So far we've had a solid start.
I for one am going to look at this positively and say that I think we'll improve. Megson has an idea of what kind of team he wants to create and I think it'll come together more in the next few weeks as we start getting players back.
Extrapolation
posted on 8/9/11
I'd rather look mediocre and get a point at team in second who have an unbeaten record than get tonked 5-1 at also rans like we did last season at Exeter.
posted on 8/9/11
It doesn't look great. Using ppg (home, away, strength of opposition, giving more significance to more recent fixtures) the following periods give the following 46 game totals, eeek:
1st 20 games last season - 84 points
1st 26 games last season (Irvine's games) - 62 points
Games 28 - 46 last season (Megson's games) - 49 points
Game 28 - present day - 51
Last 6 of last season, first 6 of this - 54
Obviously not saying this is an exact science but slightly worrying how much lower Meggy Moo's overall points are than Irvine's in league 1 last season. Obviously Meggy Moo has strengthened and added his own players but might go some way to explaining the more downbeat mood....
posted on 8/9/11
Incidentally those 6 games that effectively cost Irvine his job (games 21-26) were:
4 away games against top 8 sides, no points
2 home games against mid table sides, 2 points
The previous 5 games had brought 12 points
I'm not a particular fan of Irvine or Meggy Moo and I'm not trying to reopen that debate, its boring and pointless. But if you ignore the tactics, substitutions, effort on the pitch, body language etc etc (some people would quite rightly say why would you ignore all that?) the cold hard facts paint a slightly different picture from the inept and out of his depth Irvine I remember from the end of his tenure.
posted on 8/9/11
Fair point Mike!
posted on 8/9/11
Irvine was very good at first but he completely lost the plot and showed no sign of getting it back.
A lot like Laws actually.
The problem, and it persists to this day, is that we really struggle with consistency and we really really struggle to get any sort of momentum.
I'm coming to the conclusion that the problem is with the club and its culture. It's been easy for players to turn up, sign a 3 year contract and then just coast along.
Megson seems aware but so was Irvine.
We are stuck in a rut!
posted on 8/9/11
Lets see where we are after 15 games.
posted on 8/9/11
Agreed Chupa
What we could do with is a group of young (local would be great) lads coming through who will fight tooth and nail for the shirt. They may not get a lot of starts and win us games themselves, but they could well be a boot up the bnmhole for some of the players who are coasting and change the attitude which has been baked in at the club for too long
posted on 8/9/11
I'm not really into analysing runs and comparing scraps of a season against other ones. There are too many variables for it to be much use.
Megson was never going to be able to turn the club around instantly, there's just too much baggage.
Think chupa's spot on, and culture will take time to change. I doubt it's just the playing staff that have had that attitude as well - look at the effort we've put into our youth development over the years.
posted on 8/9/11
Prof, as I said, nowhere near an exact science and though I agree that it is unfair on Megson to consider his first 20 odd games against Irvine's in League 1, I wouldn't be at all surprised if we fell just short of the playoffs this year on around or just below 70 points
'Scraps' is also a bit extreme for 20 odd games. Definitely more of a 'chunk' - you may not be into it but there'll be a few bookies living in big houses who put a bit more store in analysing runs than you.
We are basically in agreement though, I think we'd both love to see a really successful youth system driving the club forward
posted on 8/9/11
Under Irvine we were consistent.
Either consistently good or bad.