Battle for the Top 4 - Comparison

OK people. This is an update of the analysis undertaken after Game week 7, http://www.ja606.co.uk/articles/viewArticle/354407 looking at how each of the teams competing for top 4 compared to last season, both in terms of league position at game week 20, and the respective fixtures. It has been reduced down to the current top 6 clubs who are clearly pulling away from the rest....sorry Leicester & Everton, you just aint good enough!

I know not everyone appreciates this as any sort of valid comparison, and if so, don't bother commenting. Otherwise, enjoy!

Here goes:

Game Week 20
The table below shows points after 20 games last season in bold, compared to this season in brackets, and then difference:

Chelsea.... 23(49)... +26
Liverpool... 30 (44)... +14
Spurs....... 36 (42)... +6
United...... 33 (39)... +6
City......... 39 (42)... +3
Arsenal..... 41 (42)... +1

Clearly Chelsea have been in amazing form compared to last seasons woeful efforts and have more than double the amount of points they has this time last year. Last seasons 8th placed team Liverpool have also improved considerably. Spurs, starting from a higher base, have made modest improvements, as have City, while Arsenal have barely improved at all.

All 6 clubs have improved over last season and if these were maintained until the end of the season (ie. Chelsea have 26 more points than last season, LFC 14 etc), the then end of season table would look like this

Spurs 76 pts
Chelsea 76
LFC 74
United 72
Arsenal 72
City 72

So the title decided on GD between Spurs and Chelsea and the 4th place decided between City, Arsenal & United, also on GD. What fun that would be

But of course, how the fixtures fall have an impact. Everyone has played everyone else once now but the difference of home and away is reflected in the following analysis, which looks at the result gained in the same fixtures last season.

Equivalent Fixtures to last season
As before results achieved against Boro, Burnley and Hull and swapped for those vs Villa, Norwich & Newcastle, respectively.

Again, last seasons points in bold, then this seasons then the difference

Chelsea 23 (49)...+26
United 30 (39)...+9
Liverpool 35 (44)...+9
Man City 36 (42)...+6
Spurs 39 (42)...+3
Arsenal 39 (41)...+2


So clearly again Chelsea have improved dramatically over last season, United and LFC achieving good improvement, but all of these clubs starting from quite a low base.

Spurs City and Arsenal made up the top 4 last season, so there is less room to improve, but improve they have, relatively modest amounts for Spurs & Arsenal.

If each club matched last seasons results for the remaining games, the league would end up looking like this:

Chelsea 76 pts
United 75
Spurs 73
Arsenal 72
City 72
Liverpool 69

Every team will have fixtures coming where results from last season might be hard to match and ones they'd hope to better. Spurs have WBA up next, a disappointing draw last season, then Man City, a glorious away victory. So swings and roundabouts as to whether we can do better than last seasons 4 pts from these games.

From a Spurs perspective we certainly have some of our worst results from last season still yet to play. From away at Newcastle (Burnley), WHU, Swansea, and home to Saints, Stoke, WBA & Everton we picked up 4 points from 21 last season, so a real opportunity to go better this season.

Most teams can probably identify results they would hope and expect to improve on.

This is only a reference which some might find interesting & hopefully you will enjoy it, as I update it during the season. If not and don’t bother commenting