Manchester City v Arsenal - LIVE!!!!

Never said perfectly matched. Just said that we have twice the penalties given against us than any top 6 team. The biggest predictor for football quality any season if expected goals ratio. Suggesting that we make a lot of bad decisions per season would lead us to very bad expected goals against stats. That's not the point. ANY stat that we produce is within the limits of a normal top 6 side. Except the penalties against.

I think we are looking at it the wrong way.

The question that should be asked is why are we making so many challenges in the box?

The play has to be stopped before you get into the penalty area!

I think you alsoneed to look at the defenders you have and their tendency to concede penalties. Kos for example, quality defender but gives away some daft penalties with really stupid tackles

I see you also raise the pens conceded vs goals conceded but that's not helping your point at all. That's the worst ratio in the whole league. This suggest we're given far far more penalties against than goals scored against us.

I see you also raise the pens conceded vs goals conceded but that's not helping your point at all. That's the worst ratio in the whole league. This suggest we're given far far more penalties against than goals scored against us.
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I'm not making any point at all, other than to say your analysis isn't detailed enough to reach any sweeping conclusions.

I actually started doing a little investigation into the pens awarded figures a couple weeks back. What I found was that Arsenal received less pens as a % of total goals than any other PL team over the last 10 years. Proof of ref bias right? But next worst was Swansea. And the teams with the highest % were Leicester and Crystal Palace, followed by Stoke and Blackburn. Utd also have had a really low % post-Fergie era.

The overall trend I found was that the greater a team tended towards close quarters, possession football, the less pens they won. Which makes sense as winning penalties is mostly about isolating defenders and having the space to run/dribble at them at pace. Just like Sterling's pen today.

So yeah, ref bias could play a part. But it's also provable that a team's style of play plays a heavy role. I'm willing to bet it's a similar trend for pens conceded. Teams like Arsenal who play a high line and don't press particularly well in midfield are vulnerable to the counter, and hence conceding pens. I'll get round to doing an analysis of that too at some point and hopefully prove that Arsenal's system is to blame more than any external factors outside their control.

comment by renoog (U4449)
posted 15 seconds ago
I see you also raise the pens conceded vs goals conceded but that's not helping your point at all. That's the worst ratio in the whole league. This suggest we're given far far more penalties against than goals scored against us.
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I'm not making any point at all, other than to say your analysis isn't detailed enough to reach any sweeping conclusions.

I actually started doing a little investigation into the pens awarded figures a couple weeks back. What I found was that Arsenal received less pens as a % of total goals than any other PL team over the last 10 years. Proof of ref bias right? But next worst was Swansea. And the teams with the highest % were Leicester and Crystal Palace, followed by Stoke and Blackburn. Utd also have had a really low % post-Fergie era.

The overall trend I found was that the greater a team tended towards close quarters, possession football, the less pens they won. Which makes sense as winning penalties is mostly about isolating defenders and having the space to run/dribble at them at pace. Just like Sterling's pen today.

So yeah, ref bias could play a part. But it's also provable that a team's style of play plays a heavy role. I'm willing to bet it's a similar trend for pens conceded. Teams like Arsenal who play a high line and don't press particularly well in midfield are vulnerable to the counter, and hence conceding pens. I'll get round to doing an analysis of that too at some point and hopefully prove that Arsenal's system is to blame more than any external factors outside their control.
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comment by renoog (U4449)
posted 1 minute ago
I see you also raise the pens conceded vs goals conceded but that's not helping your point at all. That's the worst ratio in the whole league. This suggest we're given far far more penalties against than goals scored against us.
-------------------
I'm not making any point at all, other than to say your analysis isn't detailed enough to reach any sweeping conclusions.

I actually started doing a little investigation into the pens awarded figures a couple weeks back. What I found was that Arsenal received less pens as a % of total goals than any other PL team over the last 10 years. Proof of ref bias right? But next worst was Swansea. And the teams with the highest % were Leicester and Crystal Palace, followed by Stoke and Blackburn. Utd also have had a really low % post-Fergie era.

The overall trend I found was that the greater a team tended towards close quarters, possession football, the less pens they won. Which makes sense as winning penalties is mostly about isolating defenders and having the space to run/dribble at them at pace. Just like Sterling's pen today.

So yeah, ref bias could play a part. But it's also provable that a team's style of play plays a heavy role. I'm willing to bet it's a similar trend for pens conceded. Teams like Arsenal who play a high line and don't press particularly well in midfield are vulnerable to the counter, and hence conceding pens. I'll get round to doing an analysis of that too at some point and hopefully prove that Arsenal's system is to blame more than any external factors outside their control.
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Assuming those stats on % of pens to goals is true, this is a brilliant post

It's normal for a team that was in top 4 for 10 years to have a very good penalties against stat. It's not normal the same team to suddenly have the second to worst penalties against stats for two seasons without it's other stats also dropping. You are actually adding to my point. Thank you

Did you apply the same reasoning to every other PL club? Or are you just looking at Arsenal data in isolation?

I'm looking at the data for all PL teams for the last two seasons. All teams in have better penalties conceded to goal conceded ratio or goal difference to penalties difference ratio or points to penalties conceded or any other meaningful stat that you can think of. In fact I might check all other top leagues as well. Not sure if I would find a top team with such a horrendous penalties conceded stats but I'll try. If you don't believe me just check yourself. I challenge you to show any meaningful stats explanation as e.g. that we conceded most touches in the penalty area or we have the worst fouls committed stats in the league. Anything will do.