Regardless of what your position on Trump is on this forum (the majority hate him), I keep seeing people say ‘Trump will lose the election easily’ and ‘Joe Biden is the luckiest candidate ever’. I’m interested in where this is coming from? All the evidence points towards a Trump win, and a look at the electoral map demonstrates why.
In the US they have ‘safe States’, just like we have safe seats here. I.e. Texas will vote Republican and California will vote Democrat. That is replicated across the board apart from a handful of states being: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. These are known as ‘swing States’ and will decide who becomes the next president, so let’s take a look at the states.
Colorado – I suspect will stay with Democrats. Worth 9 points.
Florida – Dubbed ‘Trump country’, Biden will push Trump closer here than Sanders would have. But unlikely that a Republican popular with his own party will lose this state. Worth 29 points.
Iowa – Easy Republican win. Worth 6 points.
Michigan – This is going to be a close one, and the Republicans had not won since 1988 before the 2016 election. However Trump’s popularity within his own party and Biden unable to garner the same within his will probably see Trump through. Worth 16 points.
Minnesota – Trump came surprisingly close to winning this state last cycle, but I suspect it will stay with the Democrats. Worth 10 points.
Nevada – Close Democrat win. Worth 6 points.
New Hampshire – Clinton barely won this in 2016, going to be a real toss-up. Biden just to edge it. Worth 4 points.
North Carolina – Easy Republican win. Worth 15 points.
Ohio – Popular Republican rarely lose this state. Won’t this time. Worth 18 points.
Pennsylvania – Probably the biggest achievement for Trump in 2016 was getting this state back, like Michigan it had not gone Republican since 1988, but like Michigan I think it will stay red this time. Shall be close though. Worth 20 points.
Virginia – Safe Democrat win. Worth 13 points.
Wisconsin – Voted Republican for the first time since 1984 in the last election. It will be close, but Trump should see this one through. Worth 10 points.
So you’ve got Trump with 114 electoral points and Biden with 38 (along with the points the safe states bring). Biden has a huge job really to flip at least three states with a large number of points into his camp. The key factor as mentioned a few times when looking at the states, is popularity of the candidate. Love him or hate, Trump is popular with Republican voters, they will turn out and vote for him. Biden whilst not as unpopular as Hillary, is not going to get Democrats voting en masse and if a credible third party candidate emerges, then it really is game over for Biden.
What you’re essentially looking at, is a repeat of 2016. Biden probably will win the popular vote (California helps a lot in that respect), but will probably lose the map and Trump will have another term.
As for the opinion polls, most do have Biden winning, but they are pretty close. Just like in 2016, people will not say they vote for Trump and those skew it a lot. Trump occasionally leads in opinion polls for the above swing states, which is very bad news for Biden. He should not be leading at all considering the ‘shy Trumpster’ factor.
2020 US Presidential election
posted on 30/5/20
Females are brave to go near Biden.
posted on 30/5/20
Trump about to send the army on his own citizens...
Mess of a country.
posted on 30/5/20
comment by Poolmyfinger - Truth Teller - F#ck China (U12438)
posted 48 minutes ago
Don’t get your hopes up folks. Trump is going to win.
Why?
Because the silent majority is going to come out in those swing states.
Also, Trump’s opponent isn’t really Biden. It’ll be the female VP he will choose. Just watch.
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Why will they vote for Trump?
posted on 30/5/20
comment by BraveheartTyke (U6173)
posted 1 hour, 9 minutes ago
Females are brave to go near Biden.
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Or trump tbf.
posted on 30/5/20
comment by kneerash-23 Cara Gold (U6876)
posted 3 hours, 30 minutes ago
comment by Cinciwolf----JA606 NFL Fantasy Champion 2019--... (U11551)
posted 44 minutes ago
comment by Ole-Dirty-Baztard (U19119)
posted 34 seconds ago
comment by kneerash-23 Cara Gold (U6876)
posted 26 seconds ago
comment by Cinciwolf----JA606 NFL Fantasy Champion 2019--... (U11551)
posted 2 hours, 36 minutes ago
comment by JustYourAverageFan (U21016)
posted 40 minutes ago
Trump will win again because unfortunately too many American's are thick enough to vote him back in.
For all of his criticisms and rightly so, in his defence, at least he would by the type of person to get something done if it needed doing. But America is such a backwards society and culture in 70% of the country that he'd end up being the perfect person for them. He's branded as a racist, but so is 3/4's of America tbh.
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Fack me, it is amazing how little knowledge some folks have so they just make ridiculous sweeping generalizations.
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They voted for Trump. You get what you deserve, a president that reflects those who voted for him.
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Generalisation..but I’d agree. Vote for a caaant, get one.
For the life of my I still can’t see how many, and there will be some normal sensible people (not just inbredd idiots and Christian whackos) still voted for that clown and couldn’t see through it as a bunch of lies and utter nonsense.
I honestly have no answer for that.
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So like I said, folks that don't understand making sweeping generalizations. More people voted against Trump than for him so we dont get what we deserve at all.
Many who voted 'trump' can't stand him but support his parties policies, no different to the UK which is in equal dire straights but in actual fact has more basis on racism in recent times with brexit etc.
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A huge % of Americans voted fir him, this is a fact. The difference between the number of individual votes for Clinton over Trump is what a few million?
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If we want to get technical then 20% voted for him
posted on 30/5/20
Comment Deleted by Site Moderator
posted on 30/5/20
comment by Cinciwolf----JA606 NFL Fantasy Champion 2019--... (U11551)
posted 3 hours, 17 minutes ago
comment by kneerash-23 Cara Gold (U6876)
posted 3 hours, 30 minutes ago
comment by Cinciwolf----JA606 NFL Fantasy Champion 2019--... (U11551)
posted 44 minutes ago
comment by Ole-Dirty-Baztard (U19119)
posted 34 seconds ago
comment by kneerash-23 Cara Gold (U6876)
posted 26 seconds ago
comment by Cinciwolf----JA606 NFL Fantasy Champion 2019--... (U11551)
posted 2 hours, 36 minutes ago
comment by JustYourAverageFan (U21016)
posted 40 minutes ago
Trump will win again because unfortunately too many American's are thick enough to vote him back in.
For all of his criticisms and rightly so, in his defence, at least he would by the type of person to get something done if it needed doing. But America is such a backwards society and culture in 70% of the country that he'd end up being the perfect person for them. He's branded as a racist, but so is 3/4's of America tbh.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Fack me, it is amazing how little knowledge some folks have so they just make ridiculous sweeping generalizations.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
They voted for Trump. You get what you deserve, a president that reflects those who voted for him.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Generalisation..but I’d agree. Vote for a caaant, get one.
For the life of my I still can’t see how many, and there will be some normal sensible people (not just inbredd idiots and Christian whackos) still voted for that clown and couldn’t see through it as a bunch of lies and utter nonsense.
I honestly have no answer for that.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
So like I said, folks that don't understand making sweeping generalizations. More people voted against Trump than for him so we dont get what we deserve at all.
Many who voted 'trump' can't stand him but support his parties policies, no different to the UK which is in equal dire straights but in actual fact has more basis on racism in recent times with brexit etc.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
A huge % of Americans voted fir him, this is a fact. The difference between the number of individual votes for Clinton over Trump is what a few million?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
If we want to get technical then 20% voted for him
----------------------------------------------------------------------
What % of the eligibilile voters?
posted on 31/5/20
comment by kneerash-23 Cara Gold (U6876)
posted 13 minutes ago
comment by Cinciwolf----JA606 NFL Fantasy Champion 2019--... (U11551)
posted 3 hours, 17 minutes ago
comment by kneerash-23 Cara Gold (U6876)
posted 3 hours, 30 minutes ago
comment by Cinciwolf----JA606 NFL Fantasy Champion 2019--... (U11551)
posted 44 minutes ago
comment by Ole-Dirty-Baztard (U19119)
posted 34 seconds ago
comment by kneerash-23 Cara Gold (U6876)
posted 26 seconds ago
comment by Cinciwolf----JA606 NFL Fantasy Champion 2019--... (U11551)
posted 2 hours, 36 minutes ago
comment by JustYourAverageFan (U21016)
posted 40 minutes ago
Trump will win again because unfortunately too many American's are thick enough to vote him back in.
For all of his criticisms and rightly so, in his defence, at least he would by the type of person to get something done if it needed doing. But America is such a backwards society and culture in 70% of the country that he'd end up being the perfect person for them. He's branded as a racist, but so is 3/4's of America tbh.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Fack me, it is amazing how little knowledge some folks have so they just make ridiculous sweeping generalizations.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
They voted for Trump. You get what you deserve, a president that reflects those who voted for him.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Generalisation..but I’d agree. Vote for a caaant, get one.
For the life of my I still can’t see how many, and there will be some normal sensible people (not just inbredd idiots and Christian whackos) still voted for that clown and couldn’t see through it as a bunch of lies and utter nonsense.
I honestly have no answer for that.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
So like I said, folks that don't understand making sweeping generalizations. More people voted against Trump than for him so we dont get what we deserve at all.
Many who voted 'trump' can't stand him but support his parties policies, no different to the UK which is in equal dire straights but in actual fact has more basis on racism in recent times with brexit etc.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
A huge % of Americans voted fir him, this is a fact. The difference between the number of individual votes for Clinton over Trump is what a few million?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
If we want to get technical then 20% voted for him
----------------------------------------------------------------------
What % of the eligibilile voters?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
235 million. so he had 62 million so around 27% or so of the eligible vote. Point being it is pretty daft to suggest a country gets what it deserves when that clearly isn't the case at all.
posted on 31/5/20
The issue is that half the people protesting the streets have not registered to vote and will stay indifferent or lazy as we get closer to the election. Young people people these days just want to be loud in the streets and on social media but fail to mobilise themselves at the polls. Same happened here with Brexit. Laziness and more concerned about their followers than about getting out and voting.
posted on 31/5/20
Bernie may have caused a 'youthquake', but would've lost everybody else's vote in the meantime.
Democrats knew they had to stop Bernie, so pooled their votes into Biden and it worked.