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Football Cycles

Afternoon all.

Just wanted to gauge opinions on something that struck me when I was listening to a podcast the other day (View From the Lane) on the different approaches that can be taken by teams such as us and Arsenal who always seem to be having to try to punch above our weight to try to challenge the clubs with huge spending powers, the likes of City and Chelsea.

They made some good comparisons - for example, when we hired Poch, we went with the long term, unproven manager approach, buy young with potential and see where it takes you, and it did take us far. Ultimately though, you always felt like that it would come to a point where we had reached the end of that journey, and an inevitable 'painful rebuild' would have to happen. We then change tactic and go for the likes of Mourinho and Conte, 'proven' winners, to try and take that next step, as of now without much success.

Arsenal now look to be on a similar path to what we were on. A young manager and young team with lots of potential, and are rightly getting a lot of praise. But I ask, what is to stop the same thing happening to them that happened to us? In 2025, I would wager that they are likely to be having the same conversations between each other that we are having now, because, as good as they have been, can anyone see them finishing above City, or winning the CL? They might win domestic cups, of course, and this is a sticking point where we failed, but as Saka, Smith Rowe etc get better and better, they will want to be winning things just as much as Kane will.

So, is there any real benefit to taking the 'long term' approach to trying to compete with clubs who can trump you in the market?

The outlier in all this is of course Liverpool. Yes, of course historically they are a huge club, but when Klopp came, they were in the sort of mess that we find ourselves in now. A mish-mash of players bought to play different styles, no real direction, and no CL. So - how did they become what they have been in the last 2-3 years, CL winners, PL winners and the only real team to match City? Is it really all down to Klopp? And if so, do we have the right to hope that someone like Conte could propel us in a similar manner?

I've seen comments suggesting if Conte does go any time soon, we should look to replicate the Poch/Arteta model and rebuild for another 3-4 years at least. But, for the reasons above, is that really worth doing?

comment by Spurtle (U1608)

posted on 16/3/22

We were a bit unlucky not to win anything in the Poch era. For instance our 86 points in 16/17 would have been enough to win us the league last season. If we had pushed the boat out a bit more in terms of spending, we could have lifted some trophies around then. That's what Arsenal will need to do with their new team on the up.

Liverpool and City are not always going to hit those really high numbers every season by the way, as last season proved. There should still be the odd opportunity for a team to come along at the right time and take advantage. I mean how long are Klopp and Pep going to stick around for anyway?

comment by Spurtle (U1608)

posted on 16/3/22

comment by Sheriff JW Pepper (U1007)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by Brother (U20548)
posted 56 minutes ago
It's worth doing because you can at least have a few years of success like we did under Poch, in terms of high league finishes and regular Champions League football. The proven winners / quick fix approach didn't work with Jose and to be honest it doesn't appear to be working with Conte either. If anything this approach is only suited to clubs like Chelsea who not only have a huge budget but already have a core of players good enough to win trophies with.
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You had success under Poch....what did you win...?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Success is relative. You wouldn't say a club like West Ham finishing in the top 4 wasn't a success just because no trophy came of it.

comment by Cloggy (U1250)

posted on 16/3/22

comment by Spurtle (U1608)
posted 7 minutes ago
comment by Sheriff JW Pepper (U1007)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by Brother (U20548)
posted 56 minutes ago
It's worth doing because you can at least have a few years of success like we did under Poch, in terms of high league finishes and regular Champions League football. The proven winners / quick fix approach didn't work with Jose and to be honest it doesn't appear to be working with Conte either. If anything this approach is only suited to clubs like Chelsea who not only have a huge budget but already have a core of players good enough to win trophies with.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You had success under Poch....what did you win...?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Success is relative. You wouldn't say a club like West Ham finishing in the top 4 wasn't a success just because no trophy came of it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
They bottled it the season they came 2nd in a one horse race.

posted on 16/3/22

comment by Spurtle (U1608)
posted 22 minutes ago
comment by Sheriff JW Pepper (U1007)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by Brother (U20548)
posted 56 minutes ago
It's worth doing because you can at least have a few years of success like we did under Poch, in terms of high league finishes and regular Champions League football. The proven winners / quick fix approach didn't work with Jose and to be honest it doesn't appear to be working with Conte either. If anything this approach is only suited to clubs like Chelsea who not only have a huge budget but already have a core of players good enough to win trophies with.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You had success under Poch....what did you win...?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Success is relative. You wouldn't say a club like West Ham finishing in the top 4 wasn't a success just because no trophy came of it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
whoa...way to swerve...

posted on 16/3/22

comment by Sheriff JW Pepper (U1007)
posted 16 minutes ago
comment by Spurtle (U1608)
posted 22 minutes ago
comment by Sheriff JW Pepper (U1007)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by Brother (U20548)
posted 56 minutes ago
It's worth doing because you can at least have a few years of success like we did under Poch, in terms of high league finishes and regular Champions League football. The proven winners / quick fix approach didn't work with Jose and to be honest it doesn't appear to be working with Conte either. If anything this approach is only suited to clubs like Chelsea who not only have a huge budget but already have a core of players good enough to win trophies with.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You had success under Poch....what did you win...?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Success is relative. You wouldn't say a club like West Ham finishing in the top 4 wasn't a success just because no trophy came of it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
whoa...way to swerve...
----------------------------------------------------------------------
For Chelsea, success is stealing from a country and buying trophies. fake club without anyone in charge because the owner has done a runner with bundles of wad under his arms!

posted on 16/3/22

comment by One Montage - Admin 3 (U1250)
posted 11 minutes ago
comment by Spurtle (U1608)
posted 7 minutes ago
comment by Sheriff JW Pepper (U1007)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by Brother (U20548)
posted 56 minutes ago
It's worth doing because you can at least have a few years of success like we did under Poch, in terms of high league finishes and regular Champions League football. The proven winners / quick fix approach didn't work with Jose and to be honest it doesn't appear to be working with Conte either. If anything this approach is only suited to clubs like Chelsea who not only have a huge budget but already have a core of players good enough to win trophies with.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You had success under Poch....what did you win...?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Success is relative. You wouldn't say a club like West Ham finishing in the top 4 wasn't a success just because no trophy came of it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
They bottled it the season they came 2nd in a one horse race.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You’re wrong again

We finished 3rd behind Leicester and Arsenal.

comment by T-BAD (U11806)

posted on 16/3/22

Yeah the joke was third in a two horse race

posted on 16/3/22

Klopp had won two Bundesliga titles, done a German double and reached a CL final before Liverpool picked him up. I wouldn't call that unproven.

posted on 16/3/22

comment by Sheriff JW Pepper (U1007)
posted 2 hours, 2 minutes ago
comment by Spurtle (U1608)
posted 22 minutes ago
comment by Sheriff JW Pepper (U1007)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by Brother (U20548)
posted 56 minutes ago
It's worth doing because you can at least have a few years of success like we did under Poch, in terms of high league finishes and regular Champions League football. The proven winners / quick fix approach didn't work with Jose and to be honest it doesn't appear to be working with Conte either. If anything this approach is only suited to clubs like Chelsea who not only have a huge budget but already have a core of players good enough to win trophies with.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You had success under Poch....what did you win...?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Success is relative. You wouldn't say a club like West Ham finishing in the top 4 wasn't a success just because no trophy came of it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
whoa...way to swerve...
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Unfortunately our owner wasn’t besties with a man who bombs maternity hospitals so we didn’t have blood money to carry us over the title line

posted on 16/3/22

comment by Vladimikel Artutin - committing war crimes against football since 2019 (U18355)
posted 2 hours, 54 minutes ago
“Arsenal now look to be on a similar path to what we were on. A young manager and young team with lots of potential, and are rightly getting a lot of praise. But I ask, what is to stop the same thing happening to them that happened to us?”

Arsenal can offer higher wages and pay bigger transfer fees than Spurs. If you do that right, then you are gonna end up with players that can take you to the next level. You also have to factor in that Arsenal are a bigger club and name than Spurs which has been enough to attract world class players in the past (ie Ozil, Sanchez, Cech).

It’s still incredibly hard to do correctly as Liverpool are the only team in the last 10 years to challenge City and Chelsea without the backing of a sugar daddy. I don’t see how we can realistically challenge for the league any time soon. Could shiiiithouse our way to a European trophy though as one is long overdue.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

The problem with the above is that it is mostly bollox. Arsenal are marginally bigger than Spurs but it’s very small, it’s like Neighbours being slightly better than Home and Away. Arsenal still have less European trophies than Spurs and have been to as many CL finals as us. Arsenals Euro profile is not much higher than ours.

As for transfer fees and wages, Arsenal spend more than us - but let’s be absolutely straight on this, that’s not because they can, financially we have a similar profile, the issue is we have a chairman with short arms and long pockets.

Other than that the rest of what you said vaguely resembled reality

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