(No real footy so something topical)
They say history tells you a lot about the future, it's a sentiment I completely agree with and there are plenty of past events that can be used to show what the future may look like.
One of the most significant aspects of the past, is to look at the previous wars and see if we can learn anything. The "war" in Ukraine Mr Putin, yes war not "special operation" as you are misinforming the Russian people, in truth, is going pretty much as bad as it can be for the Russian regime.
The resistance from Ukraine and poor strategy and planning from Russian generals has resulted in an embarrassment on the battle field for Putin. The latest counter offensive from Ukraine has seen a huge area of Ukraine retaken and Russia soldiers fleeing leaving behind armour and supplies.
It can be see and has been seen that even the pro Russian stations have been releasing less positive news and indeed even criticism.All is very much not well; from the west supplying key offensive weapons to the almost surgical assassinations of Russian top generals in the battlefield.
What maybe key and I suspect it will be is the fast approaching winter in Ukraine; there is nothing more demoralising than not only losing a war but to be absolutely miserable and freezing while you are losing. Napoleon and Hitler both found this to their cost and both faced humiliating defeats in the cold winter months.
Ukraine will be ok with winter, it's their country and supplies and logistics are already set up, for Russia it's a lot different. Every step forward a Russian soldier takes he is a step further from the supply lines in Russia. Russian can't set up supplies easily in Ukraine as they will be bombed as has happened already. Russians are used to the freezing cold of course, but not while they try to invade a extremely well organised and intelligent force.
So to me it looks like check at the very least, and maybe checkmate is approaching; and it looks increasingly like the wars of the past in that region and it wears a cold white freezing horrible welcome for the Russians.
Winter and Russia AGAIN???
posted on 16/9/22
Winter won't be easy on either side, Russia now targeting critical infrastructure to make it more difficult for Ukraine and their population.
I suspect we will see a relative stalemate over the winter months unless Ukraine get some game changing weapons like ATACMS. The U.S seems strangely unwilling to give them those.
The Germans are still taking the pash with their support but if they stop making pathetic gestures and start supporting Ukraine that is another thing that could make a massive difference.
posted on 16/9/22
comment by HB Fash - The Madrid Minutes Folklore. 50mins of not getting pumped. DVD's out now. (U21935)
posted 57 minutes ago
…. unless Ukraine get some game changing weapons like ATACMS. The U.S seems strangely unwilling to give them those.
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I’m guessing that the US/NATO sees the progress of advance that Ukraine are making is sufficient to see the conflict come to some sort of an end using current tech. What will happen to all these weapons after Ukraine succeeds? You won’t want your latest and greatest weapons in the black market in goodness knows where… I’m already thinking about the amount of NLAWs circulating in the conflict zone and what it can do in the wrong hands.
Just my tuppence.
posted on 16/9/22
people need a bit of a reality check with this whole war.
Its fought in a completely different climate to here, or different climate to the northern parts of russia.
Its a vast country, as such people need to understand conditions will vary widely and it'll be about 20 degrees there currently and decent campaigning weather. however once it get rainy and boggy the amount of roads is no compensation for the vastness of territory and the armoured side and mobility of artillery will be far less.
Its inevitable that a stalemate of sorts will develop over the bad weather, whereever those lines are. but down near kherson they might have some longer cmapaigning.
The key issue here and now is giving russians time over months to restock and rebuild and "mobilise" troops.
The ukrainian forces can be trained and given more weapons but they have to be given enough stuff to make it possible to hold again.
peopel are right to question what exactly the russians will be resupplied with this winter but you can bet anything they will strip every occupied village and leave civilians to starve and freeze.
winter will give russia the chance to consolidate and regroup.
We are already seeing the hardening of some lines round the front lines in the east and the reports form kherson has hard to decipher as anything but rumour.
posted on 16/9/22
comment by mancWoohoo - 🧘 (U10676)
posted 2 hours, 25 minutes ago
What’s clear to see is that the decades of corruption has left the russian military hopeless in terms of supplies and the quality thereof. There are videos of Ukrainian soldiers head butting flimsy russian helmets, and putting holes straight through metal plate “armour” with small arms fire. What are the chances of russian soldiers having any quality sub zero cold weather protection this winter?
The russians are using cheapo Chinese made tyres rather than the recommended spec. Some people at the top were pocketing the difference for their yachts and mansions. For a “superpower” that is supposed to be the 2nd best in the world, their losses of tanks and ground vehicles would normally be deemed as nominal in the grand scheme of things. However, they are currently dragging out museum pieces that are no match for NATO spec anti-tank solutions.
The russian military is being made to look like a mug on an international stage. Would they really hold back their super-weapons and super soldiers as some have suggested? Underneath the grand structure; when you peel back the dry wall, are termites that have been eating at the foundation for years. It looks like that it will all collapse soon and I agree with the OP that winter will may soon be check-mate.
The nuclear solution? I’m not certain. I think that those who are able to cream off military budgets for their own personal gain never would have thought to leave the funds for maintaining and servicing their nuclear arsenal. Do those nukes still work? I don’t know but, from my limited understanding and knowledge, if they do use it on Ukraine, apparently the prevailing wind is north to north-easterly.
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Pretty much spot on.
I was reading about the Russian investment in the military and a huge percentage has been siphoned off and spent on superyachts and grand properties by corrupt officials.
What's left is what you are seeing on the battlefield; a Russian army with poor and inadequate equipment. Add in one other aspect that strike me was when I look at the Ukrainian soldiers they all look around late 20s onwards whereas the Russians look around teenage age....and the Ukrainians are used to fighting since they have been fighting the separatists in the donbas region since around 2014.
Ukrainians are fighting for their land and have sense of purpose, the Russians? Completely different, the Russians are now going to prisons and offering Pardons if they join the fight....its a shambles imo.
posted on 16/9/22
Russia have already lost the war, it’s just a matter of how quickly it takes for them to fully withdraw. Does anyone really think the winter is gonna help the Russians? The supply line for the Russian troops is already in tatters so add in a mental snow season and that’s only gonna get worse. Russia don’t have the manpower to sustain this without conscription and you know exactly how awful the conscripted soldiers mentality will be.
As for nukes, there’s absolutely no way the Russian powers that be will let Putin do it.
posted on 16/9/22
comment by mancWoohoo - 🧘 (U10676)
posted 1 hour, 27 minutes ago
comment by HB Fash - The Madrid Minutes Folklore. 50mins of not getting pumped. DVD's out now. (U21935)
posted 57 minutes ago
…. unless Ukraine get some game changing weapons like ATACMS. The U.S seems strangely unwilling to give them those.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I’m guessing that the US/NATO sees the progress of advance that Ukraine are making is sufficient to see the conflict come to some sort of an end using current tech. What will happen to all these weapons after Ukraine succeeds? You won’t want your latest and greatest weapons in the black market in goodness knows where… I’m already thinking about the amount of NLAWs circulating in the conflict zone and what it can do in the wrong hands.
Just my tuppence.
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Having said all of that, I do believe that there are some longer range weaponry already close to the conflict zone or in nearby NATO member states ready to go in. 5d chess move and that.
posted on 16/9/22
Russia can no longer win the war.
In the early 2000s they found massiive stock piles of natural gas in the crimea and donbas region of ukraine.
Putin wanted to make sure ukraine didnt dictate the gas price to europe by flooding the market so invaded after his puppet pm was thrown out in 2014.
But now europe is moving away from russian gas, so even if he conqured all of ukraine, his objectives can no longer be met and he has ruined the russian economy.
This war can never be won and the west wont deal with him till hes gone. He will be overthrown in a few years
posted on 16/9/22
His excuse about nato is exactly that.
Noticed he doesnt threaten finland and sweden and they are joining nato.
It was always about energy and he has calculated wrong
posted on 16/9/22
comment by Timmy (U14278)
posted 16 minutes ago
Russia can no longer win the war.
In the early 2000s they found massiive stock piles of natural gas in the crimea and donbas region of ukraine.
Putin wanted to make sure ukraine didnt dictate the gas price to europe by flooding the market so invaded after his puppet pm was thrown out in 2014.
But now europe is moving away from russian gas, so even if he conqured all of ukraine, his objectives can no longer be met and he has ruined the russian economy.
This war can never be won and the west wont deal with him till hes gone. He will be overthrown in a few years
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This is a very valid point and often missed. Ukraine is a mineral rich country and I believe one of the best in the world. You can bet this had a massive reason as to why Putin wants it under Russia control.
posted on 19/9/22
I have no clue on the accuracy of this opinion piece on how the flagship of the RF Navy sank. But it’s consistent to the heavy corruption that festers in that State.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=aNEtlMSCiCI