A quick review:
It all started so well...and then we proceeded to give up...until we were 3-1 down.
We are still scoring goals...but unfortunately the likes of Aina, Mangala and Wood are not as prolific as the likes of Awoniyi (MIA), Johnson (KIA), and Elanga...our current shining light when it comes to doing the business.
Defensively shocking, we need to shore up our defence to get something against Dyche's Everton.
The Good: MGW with perhaps his best performance this season, Elanga with the goal, the return of CHO, Murillo's pingers and Toffolo's crosses.
The Bad: Danilo, Dominguez and our defending stood out. As did our inept strike force.
The Ugly: their manager. He looks like a right gimp.
Special Mention: The crowd...nearly drowning out the droning Birtles.
The Last Game (Everton (H) - a 2-2 draw):
Navas
Aurier Worrall Felipe Lodi
Shelvey Freuler Colback
MGW Johnson
Wood
Unbelievable that the midfield above didn't see us losing 10-0. If only we had Johnson to score two goals again!
Proposed Lineup:
Vlachodimos
Aina Boly Murillo Toffolo
Sangare Mangala Dominguez
MGW CHO
Elanga
Subs:
Turner, Niakhate, Aurier, Montiel, Tavares, Williams, Danilo, Yates, Wood
4 wingbacks on the subs bench? I'm thinking we can go 3-5-2 if we're winning and Williams and Tavares (six goals from LM last season) can play as WBs.
Injuries:
Felipe and Awoniyi.
Laughing @ Derby:
Hennessy, McKenna, Omobamidele, Worrall, Kouyate, Aguilera, Santos and Origi.
Form:
Forest (H) - W2 D1 L1 GF10 GA8 - 14th (9th in the Home Form table)
Everton (A) - W3 D1 L2 GF9 GA11 - 19th (8th in the Away Form table)
* Everton have beaten Palace, West Ham and Brentford away from home this season. Oh dear...
Prediction:
Everton are set up to win away, they are also (obviously) better than their position suggests.
If we can somehow regain the defensive ruggedness of the games v Chelsea and Aston Villa then a clean sheet is a vague possibility.
If Elanga continues his form, and Wood gets one over on his old manager...then I am going for....
A 2-1 Forest win!!!
Still Reading(?!):
From a stats perspective, we have over-performed by 50% when playing three at the back. Losses were Arsenal, City, Liverpool and Man U...with an unexpected win at Chelsea providing this stat.
This is vs a 30% reduction in points when we play 2 CBs. In our 7 games (with two CBs) we have seven points, but draws against Luton and Burnley were expected wins, Villa was an unexpected win (as opposed to a draw), and Brighton was an unexpected loss (instead of a draw based on our home form). Palace (D) and West Ham (L) results were as expected as was (if we are being honest) the home draw against Brentford, compounded by Niakhate's sending off.
We achieve a +37.5% with Awoniyi in the side (expected points 8 v a return of 11 using the same logic as above).
We see a 60% drop-off with Awoniyi out of the side (the draw against Palace and Luton and the loss to Brighton...expected points 5 v a return of just two).
Do we go three at the back to overperform by 50%, that would make sense, but Awoniyi played in all those games anyway...so these stats...ultimately prove nothing.
Final Words:
COYRs!!!!
Forest v Everton - Match Thread
posted on 2/12/23
Without the points deduction Everton would be 11th. Which is about right for that performance. They a tough team to play against, not as nice to watch as Villa and Brighton but full of know how and well organised, they will definitely stay up regardless of the outcome of the appeal
It was always a tough test without Awoniyi! Also assume Aina and Dominguez are unfit
We no where near as good as some thought early season, new players like Sangare, Origi, and CHO are not an improvement. We miss Johnson more than many thought we would.
posted on 2/12/23
We’ve won one home game against the bottom four teams and picked up 5 points, we now have to away to all of them, plus we’ve played a lot of the ‘big’ teams away, which means they have to come to the WFCG, no guarantee of points there, i seriously think we are right in the relegation battle already, Fulham and Wolves away, an out of form Spurs at home and Bournemouth at home, we desperately need points from those fixtures, though it’s difficult to have confidence when the performances are consistently so poor.
posted on 2/12/23
The core issue for me is that Cooper never seems to want to go for it. It's like they play with the handbrake on and only when we are losing and with 10 mins to go do we see them have a go. Why are we not going for it at home from the start.
I also have to say that the decision for the penalty was shocking and if we been given the decision, as it was absolutely clear, then its a different last 20 where Everton may well have felt it was not going to be there night.
posted on 2/12/23
Sky pointing out that the Yates incident was both a shirt pull and a clear kick. At minimum the ref should have been sent to the monitor. Its not an excuse for the performance but it really was another massive mistake from VAR and again it's go against us.
posted on 2/12/23
Whilst agree with the sentiments on the penalty, which SKY have just shown about a dozen times, and can’t figure out how its not a pen, or at least a VAR referral, its still papering over the chasm size cracks we have in our lacklustre performances.
As stated, we never have any urgency until we go behind, its not a scenario that works well in the Prem, which we are finding out, to our cost.
posted on 2/12/23
Moving on would Graham Potter get us playing ?
posted on 2/12/23
I am sure he would, but doubt very much whether he would be interested, he’s turned down a log ‘bigger’ than Forest, just hope we don’t go down the Lepetigu (sp ??) route. Got nothing but respect and thanks for Coops, and as SKY have just said, he won’t be out of a job for long, assuming of course the worse does happen.
As people often say, be careful what you wish for, again not saying sacking Coops is anybodies wish.
posted on 2/12/23
Can anyone tell me what our game plan was today. Everton weren’t great, but they had a plan, stuck to it pretty much, and it got them over the line.
posted on 2/12/23
VAR decided it was not a penalty because there wasnt enough contact. WOW. I am speechless. You can grab a player, almost remove his shirt, kick him afterwards, all while the ball is in the air, in the penalty area, but it’s not a penalty. I am totally baffled by VAR, what is the point of it, if it can’t get even the obvious right, the people who run football are absolutely killing it.
Sack VAR off altogether, and let the officials make the decisions, worts and all.
posted on 3/12/23
Agree with the above. I could take the on pitch refs missing things or making mistakes, but VAR have all the angles, slo-mo, and plenty of time and still they get it wrong every week. Bin it.
What’s more it has a whiff of corruption.