So it seems clear to me that Spurs will be in the conversation for a CL place this season - I.e. we will probably head into the final 6 games with there be a very realistic chance of qualifying. So who else will we most likely compete with for a spot:
Liverpool and City - I’m calling these 2 guaranteed. One of them will win the title, my money is on City, the other at worst will finish 3rd.
Arsenal - poor form, but is suspect the rest from the league in Jan will give them the time they need to regroup and finish strongly. If they buy a goalscorer then they will have zero issues, but just getting some energy back into Rice will help. I suspect they will finish either 2nd or 3rd - my money being 3rd.
Villa - brilliant start, some great football and they are the real deal, this is no fluke. They are though starting to falter. Dropping points at home to Sheff U and then more embarrassingly away to Man U has hurt them and they looked fragile at times against 10 man Burnley. Their away form is poor. They are the side I think in most danger of falling out and I think they need a good window to solidify a CL spot.
West Ham - I don’t know what to make of them to be honest, some great wins recently, they’ve turned over us, Arsenal and United this season whilst also losing 5-0 at Fulham and drawing 1-1 at home to Palace. I think they will be too inconsistent for a CL spot, but suspect they will push Euro spots to the end. I reckon 7th
United - as pizz poor as they are and they really are, I do believe they will make Europe and will push the CL spots the whole way, I do think they will go on a little run at some point and will improve in the 2nd half of the season. I reckon 6th
Newcastle/Brighton - nope, both have too many injuries. Brighton have Europe, Newcastle look jaded and they are too many points back. Both have been weak away from home as well. 8/9th
So I reckon it will be Spurs and Villa fighting for 4/5th at the end - which might be enough for both to qualify for CL:
https://www.espn.co.uk/football/story/_/id/39054486/the-race-five-places-next-seasons-champions-league
What are your thoughts?
Champions League
posted on 1/1/24
Ah yes, the man, the myth, the legend Thomas Partey. He's injured and has been for about 3 months. He's not going AFCON to focus on rehabilitation, but he's reportedly not going to be match fit until end of Jan/start of Feb. Who knows whether this will happen, as he suffered a set back in his recovery earlier in the season.
This is a guy who has missed 51% of Arsenal games since joining the club. He's a top player when he's fit, but players like this are just not reliable. Hamstrings made of cheese.
I would have preferred to have kept Xhaka and sold Partey because I'd rather have a player give me 7/10 every week than a player who gives me a 9/10 for half a season.
posted on 1/1/24
comment by Samir (U2630)
posted 1 hour, 11 minutes ago
comment by Devonshirespur (U6316)
posted 1 hour, 4 minutes ago
comment by Samir (U2630)
posted 48 minutes ago
Arsenal's primary issue for me isn't our attackers. We scored 88 goals last season with these same players bar one or two. The main issue is we barely create chances from open play, so every miss by our forwards feels worse than it is because we conjure up so few attacking opportunities. The team is very unbalanced and some players are being ran into the ground with minimal rotation.
Until we find a way of unlocking low blocks/settled defences, and stop passing the ball around in a horseshoe shape, I wouldn't even assume top-4 is a given for us. There's a lot of work we need to do to secure CL football for next season, let alone compete for the league.
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Odd assessment.
You struggle with low blocks as your are quite one dimensional up front. And that is because you lack a proper striker would allow you to play a different way. You still have loads of quality in attack but are fairly predictable. The option to hit a no.9 and play off them, more directly, or to put a ball into the box, is totally lacking. I don't know what the stats are but I would suspect you haven't scored many headed goals this season, at least not with a striker and I think even Pep sees this as an essential option in a PL team
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A different striker would not have won us the game against Fulham yesterday. A striker can only do so much when they have limited service and when there are a lack of bodies getting into the box/getting in behind. Nketiah was getting a tonne of flack yesterday, but what's he supposed to do when he's not getting the ball?
We do need another striker, a different profile of striker, but that's not the immediate concern for me.
When Fulham were defending their box, Rice was the one who was being tasked with playing with more verticality and penetrative passes. He isn't used to doing this. Fulham players were intercepting all his passes and were comfortable because he was taking too many touches.
We've lost Xhaka/Partey and have made our midfield structure worse. There's no balance, no pace, no chance creation, no players who can circulate the ball effectively, the counterpress is worse, and there are no players who can play in between the lines or get at defences from central areas.
For me, midfield has to be more of a priority than a striker right now - especially as we are highly. highly unlikely to get any of our striking targets in January.
We are 13th in the league for chance creation. That is abysmal.
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how are you so bad at creating chances when you have a specialist in Odegaard, and sort of in Trossard?
Makes no sense sorry. I think it maybe because Arsenal are easily predisctable in how they will play. Also, there is no recognised target person who can be a solid outlay who can hold on to the ball and allow others to join in in the attack.
posted on 1/1/24
Because the manager decided to reinvent the wheel this season, moved away from what made us good last season and as a result, every single attacking player we have looks worse in this new style he's tried to implement. A lot of the underlying metrics for our attack support this.
When every single attacking player's numbers are down, you can't keep looking at individual players. It's a team problem that has to be solved primarily by the coach's tactics.
posted on 1/1/24
Good article with sensible discussions! Wish there was more of this on JA!!
posted on 1/1/24
comment by Brother (U20548)
posted 5 hours ago
comment by Mack (U6574)
posted 13 minutes ago
Honestly don’t care about champions league unless we get into by actually winning something. So bored of football being about coming fourth. It’s not like the champions league means we go large in the transfer market.
Would rather be in the conversation for the fa cup
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Providing Ange didn't get sacked, I would happily see Spurs finish 10th if we won the FA Cup.
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Well said. I believe that the CL and the money attached has damaged football. Club owners would rather finish 4th than win the FA or League Cup, regardless of what the fans think. Sad really.
posted on 1/1/24
Chelsea dark horses to nab 5th if Villa implode.
posted on 1/1/24
comment by it'sonlyagame (U6426)
posted 16 minutes ago
Chelsea dark horses to nab 5th if Villa implode.
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I’m not getting the Chelsea tips - they were clinging on against Luton the other day having scored in the last minute at home to Palace a few days earlier, they’ve lost to Wolves, Forest, Everton, Brentford and Man United so far - I would take a bet both Spurs and Villa finish above them
posted on 1/1/24
So would any sane person, given they're about a dozen points behind and have been sheet most of the front half. Hence the c9ndition "if Villa implode".
But something tells me Poch is going to get a tune out of the kids and that the manner of their recent results is actually going to give them a bit of belief.
Don't forget that they're also weathering an injury crisis but that their comparatively deeper squad could put them in good stead for the back half of the season.
posted on 1/1/24
I’ve got this feeling that we’ll be fighting for the title, not CL. Some will laugh, but once Maddison, VDV and Bentancur, I think we push on big time and steam roll most teams.
posted on 2/1/24
What are your thoughts?
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None! take it one game at a time.
Our injuries are ridiculous...Veliz comes on for 5 minutes and limps off...and we're down to 10 men, one of which is Gil who runs around like a headless chicken.
Cannot depend upon anything.