The Last 16

The business end of the tournament starts today, and this is where the tournament catches fire!

Last time we saw 29 goals in the 8 last 16 games, including a 3-3 draw between France and Switzerland - with the Swiss causing the shock of the round by winning on penalties. Spain and Croatia also ended 3-3 after 90, with the Spanish scoring twice in extra time. The last 16 is also the stage when Iceland shocked Europe by beating England 2-1 in 2016.

Champions Italy kick off the knockouts with a tie against Switzerland. Both teams finished 2nd in their groups without looking great. Italy needed a 98th minute goal in the last game to ensure their progress, while Switzerland had an uninspiring draw with Scotland to go with a win over Hungary and a draw with Germany.
Difficult to see many goals in this, so I will predict a 1-0 Italy win.

Hosts Germany started the tournament with a 5-1 stroll over Scotland and a 2-0 over Hungary before the draw with the Swiss. For Denmark it is a case of 3 draws from 3. They should make it hard for Germany today, and it wouldn't be a great surprise if this went to extra time. However, I will go for 2-0 Germany - with both goals late on.

Tomorrow sees England face Slovakia. The Slovaks got through the group of equality thanks largely to a 1-0 win over Belgium. England have been disjointed and hard to watch. This has all the hallmarks of being the dull game of the last 16, but England should have enough to get through. I'm going to go for a 3-0 England win, with the scoreline flattering the English.

Spain are probably the team that stood out in the group stage, winning all 3 including a 1-0 over Italy. Georgia are the underdogs but have played some decent stuff. Their 2-0 over Portugal was impressive under the circumstances - albeit a much changed Portuguese XI. Spain will have too much class though, I'll go for a 2-0 Spain win.

On paper France vs Belgium should be the tie of the round, but neither team has hit form. France only have an own goal and a penalty to their credit while Belgiums only goals came in their only win so far. France will be desperate to avoid another last 16 defeat, and should have too much for Belgium. However it is always dangerous to write off a team with KdB in it, and Lukaku is due some luck in front of goal. I'm going for a France 2-1 win.

Slovenia are the second team who got through without a win, drawing all games in the Group of Death (by boredom). Portugal, on the other hand, got business done early by winning their first two games by hook or by crook - a 92nd minute winner in the opener before a couple of Turkish gifts. Portugal should win this, although Slovenia will try and make it hard. I will go for a 3-0 Portugal win.

Romania topped group E and their reward is the Netherlands. The Dutch were unlucky not to beat France and defeat to Austria was in the knowledge they had qualified so it is hard to judge their 3rd place truly. Romania started on fire, with an impressive 3-0 win over Ukraine, before struggling in their next 2. The Dutch will fancy their chances of going all the way, and if they find cohesion in attack this should be a win for them. I am going for a 2-0 Dutch win.

Austria and Turkey were both in the "dark horse" category, and both will see a decent route to the final if they can win this. Austria topped the group of death by finishing above France and Netherlands, playing some good football. Only Germany have scored more than them. Turkey played out an entertaining 3-1 over Georgia before a defence disasterclass against Portugal and a last gasp win over Czechia. All evidence points to this being an entertaining match (although the pressure of instant elimination can get the better of teams). I am going for a 3-2 Austria win - possibly after extra time.

Draw
Italy - Switzerland
Germany - Denmark
England - Slovakia
Spain - Georgia
France - Belgium
Portugal - Slovenia
Romania - Netherlands
Austria - Turkey


Should be 4 days of exciting football.