A mate of mine on VisageTome just pointed these out to me.
This season, played 18, lost 14
This seasons average - 0.6 points per game...
Last seasons average at this stage - 1.5 points per game
Last seasons average overall - 1.2 points per game
Points this season so far - 12
Matches left - 20
Available points left (if we win every match) - 60
Matches left against top teams (Man U, Man C, Liverpool, Chelsea, Spurs, Arsenal) - 6
Number of games won against top teams in last 2 seasons - 1
Number of games against other teams - 14
Number of points available from other teams - 42
Total number of points if we win all remaining games (excluding top 6) - 54
Approx finish position if we win all remaining games - 8th (based on average from last 3 seasons)
Total number of points if we win all remaining home games (and lose all away) - 39
Finishing position if we win all remaining home games - 17th (based on last 3 seasons)
Finishing points if we replicate our best season avearge from the last 3 seasons for the rest of this season - (ie 1.5 points per game) 42 points
Finishing points if we make a 50% improvement for remaining matches - 30 points
Finishing points if we continue current form - 24 points
Finishing position if current form continues - 20th Bye Bye Bolton
As a result of reading this, I believe only a shift in fortunes of such humongous and ridiculously unlikely proportions as to be nigh on impossible will keep us up. Changing manager won't help as it will be the same players and as everyone knows, Eddie's pockets are sewn shut now. 110 mill he's $punked on us. Poor guy.
I know certain individuals on here will want to turn this into a Coyle out vs. Coyle in argument and bully for them, but they'll be missing the point. We're going down. The party's over. We've been too long trying to keep up with the big boys and it's become unsustainable. And look at the debt level. Owed to one man but still, higher than Portsmouth had when they dropped. Higher than Leeds too when they fell. I fear we're knackered whatever happens.
Still, one upside, I'll get more games for the cost of my season ticket next season.
Lies, damned lies and statistics.
posted on 28/12/11
They are all nice stats but I feel you've missed the most important one out. We only need to get 3 more points than Wigan, 5 more than Wolves, and 8 more than QPR from here on in, and that would see us more than safe. I believe that's achievable with a different manager.
posted on 28/12/11
Comment Deleted by Site Moderator
posted on 28/12/11
Thing that worries me most about the debt is that it is only nominally owed to one man (or more accurately to his companies) - if the club defaults on the debt it will wipe him out as well. This is not like Chelsea where the wealthy owner can afford to convert the debt to stock.
posted on 28/12/11
I don't think we even need a manager as some on here admonish coyle of any responsibility for on the field performances. Sad thing is no one quoted the doom from the boardroom 12 months ago they just hailed coyle a genius and the next big thing. Since then the boardroom had not changed but the on the pitch stuff has. Now coyle is paid to sort out the on the pitch stuff and has not.
Rather than take the easy option blaming finance analyse it properly.
Dec 2009 coyle takes over a team that just dropped into the bottom three. The team lacked confidence and motivation. Megson goes and coyle comes in. The whole place is lifted and we amble to 14th.
A new season begins with three players brought in. Alonso petrov rodrigo. None of them make an impact throughout the season. The impact is made by a jan signing in Holden. Coyle sets out his way forward and for half a season his plan works and we catch many teams off guard (much like a newly promoted team). January comes and this is were the major problem arises. Coyle has a plan A and when it works it is good. Problem is when it does not he is lost. Good prem managers work him out and set out their team to beat us and coyle just can't turn it round. Look at Wembley for the best example of that. Anyway we sign wheater who made no impact. Sturridge comes in on loan and saves our season as apart from a couple of cup games the season falls apart. Without sturridges goals we would have been lucky to finish 14th again. We lose Holden at utd to make things worse. We slide drastically at the end of the season with no signs of coyle being able to stop it.
So last summer comes along. Serious warning signs were there for coyle to address. We lose elmander after repeatedly saying he would sign again. Whether it would a loss was to be seen. So off goes al habsi Taylor and a few others such as Cohen etc. In comes eagles mears NRC ngog and tuncay Boyata kakuta. Most fans thought this was a good window but it seemed like earlier targets were missed.
Injuries to Lee and a few others shrink numbers. The difficult start masked the issues of last season that had not gone away. The problem was none of coyles signings have performed.
Now we find ourselves one of the worst teams in the league with a manager who buys badly and has no idea how to adapt his plan to beat teams.
posted on 28/12/11
"Changing manager won't help as it will be the same players"
Time and time again this theory has been smashed up...
Given that we have time/transfer window/new manager, we can change things around..
What we can't have, is more of the same..