Now we have a Manager in place its time to look at the sqaud he has to work with and who can he keep.
Here is a list minus kids, but i do think Redmond and Mutch should see some game time this season as for the others it will depend on who we sign/lose and injuries.
GK Foster*/Doyle
RB Carr*
CB Dann*/Johnson*/Ridgewell*/Davies*
LB Murphy*
RM Burke
CM Ferguson*/Gardner*/Michel*/Fahey
LM Beausejour/Valles
CAM/CF McFadden*/Gomis
ST Jerome*/Zigic*/King
19 players * potentiall players who could not be here.
FOSTER: Chances Staying 66%
Seemed the only player who gave some hint he would stay at the club due to close to his family and the break we gave him. Could be different now McLeish has gone. But not many clubs are really taking a look at him especailly not for the £10M ish we would want.
CARR: Chances Staying 90%
Carr would like a crack at the Prem but he may know he would only get one year deal, and chances are clubs who would play him often could end up relegated. He is our captain, and i think he would know staying here would be one last great challenge for him and a chance to cement his name as a legend at Blues.
JOHNSON: Chances Staying 25%
Johnson got a late break in his career at 28 he only has 4-5 years in him and you cant blame him for wanting to spend as much of that at the highest level, and also secure financial future for his family (untill Blues move he never earnt a lot from his career). Cant see him wanting to stay in the Championship.
Dann: Chances Staying 33%
Dann is a potentially very good player, he is young and has many years left in him another year in Championship wont hurt his career. I think we would want to keep him and so far none of the big clubs have made a move and other clubs linked only offering £8M, untill we get £12M+ offers i think he will be forced to stay.
DAVIES: Chances Staying 80%
Davies has only just started at Blues and getting games, we gave him a break and i think he would want to make a point with us and the Championship will give him games and chances for him to start to play regular. I dont see many clubs after him, especially ones who would give him regular football or garuntee to stay in the Prem.
RIDGEWELL: Chances Staying 50%
Ridgewell has been a good servent, his family is settled in area, but with McLeish gone i do think he would like to play in the Prem if given a chance, i dont think he would want out, but if a chance comes he would relish a new chapter in his career especially if its a midlands club.
MURPHY: Chances Staying 75%
Murphy has had a career set back by injuries and then lossing his place to Ridgewell, maybe Murphy would want a new start. But depends on Hughton if Manager can install beleave that Murpy will be given chances i think he will stay.
FERGUSON: Chances Staying 50%
Ferguson has been a good servent, maybe loyal to McLeish than the club he did do us proud, but would he stay here and see out his last year or if given the chance at the Prem or to go back home in Scotland i do think if he comes out and says he is not sure he wants to stay, we could release him by mutral consent to get his high wages off the books.
GARDNER: Chances Staying 66%
Gardner seemed unsure of the future, he had a taste of regular Prem Football, McLeish going may also had unsettled him. But i dont see clubs offering us more than £6M and we would be better keeping him here, its up to Hughton to convince Gardner he should stay here for at least 6 months as Gardner would be the centre point to build a side around and if promoted could even become a future captain and true Blues legend.
MICHEL: Chances Staying 40%
Michel was never really given many chances, Hughton has a big job convincing him to stay, chances are Michel would wish he never signed for us and if a chance to go back to Spain comes along, i dont think we would stand in his way if we can make at least £2M back.
The KiD
SQUAD
posted on 23/6/11
Agreed. I have been thinking that myself.
posted on 23/6/11
Well its a test of players characters and commitment
Test of the boards Strength do they hold out for Top Dollar.
And Hughton has a lot to do in order to steady the ship and rebuild.
I dont think we would be pushed into selling Gardner, Foster and Dann unless clubs up their bids. I dont see nonone offering £8M for Gardner, £10M for Foster and £10M+ for Dann, so its a case of do these player accept they may stay and give 100% or do the board sell them off cheaper.
I would if it was down to me, off load Jerome £4-5M, Johnson £7-8M, release Ferguson (if he has offers) unless he wants to stay.
I would then not get rid of Dann, Foster or Gardner unless we make at least double what we paid for them, we paid £13.5M deals (actually would be £11M so far) So we have to aim for £25M or else no point in selling them.
Zigic and Michel i would sell for £6M the pair, unless they both came back and said they are 100% commited to getting us promoted then i would keep.
Sadly i think we may have to raise at least £30M to ballance the books and allow for other signings. So i do expect a lot to go.
The KiD
posted on 23/6/11
I think kind of a WORST CASE would be having to build around a sqaud of.
-------------------Doyle
Carr------Davies------?????-----Murphy
Burke-----Fahey------Mutch-----Valles* or Redmond
------------------Gomis
-------------------King
????? Maybe one of the kids i.e Preston.
This would mean we would need 2 CB's 1-2 Fullbacks, 2 CM, 1-2 Wingers and 2-3 Strikers.
Make a 18-21 man sqaud.
BEST CASE
Would be only lossing 3-4 from Foster, Dann, Johnson, Gardner, Ridgewell, Michel, Ferguson, Zigic, Jerome and Ridgewell. As apposed to all 10 in Worst Case.
So out of those 10 players i do expect about 5-6 to leave realistically.
The question/worry is who
The KiD
posted on 23/6/11
A really good thread and analysis.
I disagree somewhat but what intrigues me is the feeling amongst fans regarding those players that may go and those that may stay.
I can mostly agree with the percentages presented here but I would state that I think that Foster, Fergie, Ridgewell & Gardner are more likely to go than they are to stay.
My reasons being:
They have all proved to be good or very good Premier League players,
Not one of them is excessively over paid and therefore ANY Premier League club could easily meet their demands,
There are THREE local Premier League clubs and all are interested in at least one of them,
Three of the four are 'Eck's men,
Three of the four are worth decent cash and we are broke,
All earn more than £1million per year which is easily affordable if you are pocketing £50million per year from Sky but crippling when it's 5bob from the Beeb.
Not many fans seem to share this analysis and it has caused me some pause for thought but despite this I still cannot see that we will be retaining more than 1 or maybe 2 from last years first 18.
KRO
posted on 23/6/11
..............................Foster
Carr............Dann........Davies......Murphy
Burke........Ferguson......Mutch.......Fahey
....................Jerome.......King
Without some of his own signings I think that's not too far off the 11 that will start against derby, but I cant see jerome or dann been in the team for the first game of september
posted on 23/6/11
Banjo Good read.
I find myself agreeing and disagreeing with some of the comments.
My thoughts are - It's in Hughtons hands.
This bloke made a dossier on every player. He knows who he wants and who will do a job for him.
He knows who can go and who wont perform in the way he wants.
He has already indicated he will talk to certain players regarding his retained list when they report back.
No doubt he will talk to all of them anyway. Common curtesy. But I'm pretty sure he will be very persuasive to at least half of your list Banjo.
The other half he will allow to go.
A) balance the books
B) generate cash for 'one season' signings. These being either loanees or a type of player to do a certain job for us.
Obviously wages will play a large part in his final list but if media reports are true, McJudas would have taken a 50% pay cut due to relegation.
Surely, logically, the players would have had the same or similar deal written into their contract.
That is usually common practice.
Just my thoughts and in no way meant to undermine other opinions.
KRO
posted on 23/6/11
Well under Sully and Gold this was common place, but some of the bigger targets we signed we never had pay cut clauses, simply because thats how we go them over the line.
McFadden never had a relegation clause, i doubt Zigic has one in his contract. Sometimes when you try to make marque signings as soon as you try and put relegation clauses they turn you down, such a thing happened with Mido we agreed £40K a week but as soon as we wanted to put a 50% relegation clause the player never wanted to know.
As i said in my % chances i highlighed why some could be staying.
For example, how many Prem clubs could be interested in Zigic? We could have a club offer us £5M which i think we would accept but then if they will only offer Zigic £30K a week we cant force the player to go to a club and lose £20K a week it would be the players choice and this is why i think it would be hard to get Zigic off the books. Unless a spanish club comes in, i think he would take a wage cut to go back to spain where he was happy.
With regards to Foster seems our valuation has scared off teams, but that can change from now till August 31st. But unless we are willing to accept £7-8M i do not see teams linning up to sign him.
Potentialy what clubs are after him, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man Utd/City, Sunderland are all clubs i dont think would want Foster to replace their keepers.
Other clubs simply wont pay the price, as Green, Given and Robinson would all be cheaper alternatives who would cost less than half what we would be looking for with Foster.
Players i do think the board would sell if offers came in that was reasonable are Johnson £8M, Ridgewell £2-3M and Jerome £5M i think as time goes on and push comes to shove any offers for those would be accepted.
We simply wont sell Foster for under £10M or Dann for that matter and unless someone offers £7-8M for Gardner i cant see us selling him for the £5M touted that Newcastle valued him at.
Every player is for sale, the same is said for nearly every club, inc Fulham, Sunderland and Villa.
WBA's Odemwingie would be for sale if the price is right should a club offer over £12M then really WBA may have to start to lissen, WBA do not want to sell and being in the Prem means they are not forced to sell.
But every player has their price, those 10 players i mentioned above would all be sold if we could raise say £50M+ from them.
Leaving us with a squad simular to the worse case scenerio one a few posts back.
The KiD
posted on 23/6/11
I agree JK that if big clubs come in then indeed you cant blame players for going.
I hope we dont have to push players out the door to make cash though, if a Foster, Ferguson and say Zigic say they are willing to give this season a crack and stay i hope we dont try and push them out to make cash.
But it is inevitable cuts must be made, and while wages saved from players who have left goes some way, i still think the wage bill needs cutting down more and if we are to add to the sqaud even to replace those already gone, the wage bill will rise and not fall and thus this is where players worth money will have to go.
Right now it seems that Johnson, Dann, Gardner are all looking to play in the Prem, Ridgewell and Foster have not come out and said they want out, but given a chance to play in the Prem i am sure they would take it. But i dont see Ridgewell or Foster handing in transfers they will see if a club comes in, if not i feel they will commit.
I also think if we hold out and do not crack in and end up with Johnson and Gardner still here because clubs wont pay say more than £7M/£5M for them then i expect them to knuckle down and play much like Ridgewell and Larsson did when we was relegated last.
Jerome and Michel i think would jump at any chance to go, Michel has not enjoyed it in England because he never got chances and i think it would take a lot to convince him to stay.
Jerome would maybe also want a fresh start, who can blame the lad as if he stays he would know unless he starts to score fans will get on his back.
The KiD
posted on 24/6/11
I saw something in the papers last week that Burke isn't happy as he had offers from two prem clubs but turned them down due to McLeish and wants to terminate his contract, so that could be another player off.
As I see it Hughton has a tough job but he needs to call a meeting with all the players assk them who wants to stay and who wants to go. Say to the players that want to go, no hard feeling but don't turn up for traning and we will put you on the transfer list.
Then we can work with the players that want to be here and see what we need to bring in.
My thoughts are that the players that wil go are Foster, Johnson, Dann, Ridgwell, Gardner, Ferguson, Jerome and Zigic.
Which means we need two defenders, a new left back, a new central midfiled (we already brought one in), a new left winger adn two new stikers which is a lot of players to bring in and could mean two seasons in this division.
posted on 24/6/11
It could be indeed that Burke joined because of McLeish it would be say if McFadden said he wanted to stay and we took the option on him only for McLeish to walk a few weeks after.
Sure Faddy would be upset.
If Burke does not like the deal well tough, any club would have to pay compensation or the player would.
If he does not want to stay then some club can give us £250K-500K and take him, but we do not know 100% if he wants to stay or not.
As i said its ok saying players will go, but look at Arsenal Fabreges may had wanted out to join Barca for 2 seasons but untill a club offers Arsenal what they want he is not going anywhere.
Thus i think unless we get these values or more these players will not be going.
Foster £8M+, Dann £10M+, Jerome £4M+, Ridgewell £3M+, Gardner £6M+ and Johnson £7M+
I cant see us selling the above for less than that, and that would be if we need money and the window is near clossing. At the moment the board would hold out for at least 25% more on the above prices.
The KiD