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US Open Thread

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comment by kinsang (U3346)

posted on 15/6/13

Just had a look on Ladbrokes - Kim is 66/1, paying first 4 places, and Woods is the same price - totally based on reputations and proven record of course, but Woods doesn't win when the scoring is this tough (he'll shoot 65 tomorrow now......) Of course Kim could fall apart, but amateur with no pressure, young enough that nerves won't be that much of a factor, and hey, Rose did it at the Open many moons ago, so why not Kim?

Gonzo at 200/1 also seems massive.

posted on 15/6/13

Of course the odds relate to reputation. The odds reflect the money being placed on a golfer so still there are many folks putting cash on big names, not the player who is more likely to win.

Been a great tournament so far. Nice and tight. Gonna be a great Sunday

comment by kinsang (U3346)

posted on 16/6/13

To be honest with golf, it's not the amount of money being put on that will change the price, but more what is happening on the course. I doubt that enough will be bet to change the odds that much (unlike in a horse race), and you will find in certain sports that there is poor value on certain players, based on reputations that don't often deliver.

posted on 16/6/13

And I am fine with that. I got Adam Scott at 40-1 I think it was for the Masters. Ridiculous price.

comment by kinsang (U3346)

posted on 16/6/13

That was a good price - I got a free bet on him at 25s fo the Masters. I just feel that one of the lesser names will pop up tomorrow and either win or be placed. Of course the trick is to find which one, but there are a number at 66s or bigger, so a few can be backed for small stakes.

posted on 16/6/13

Might have been 33s. All I know is I either put $2 or $2.50 and got 80 back. Was kinda disappointed though, my brother out 10 quid on Cabrera at 110-1. Really wanted him to win. I bet on Scott coz he's been great lately. My brother looked at previous Mastrs championships and Cabrerra was there it thereabouts every time.

Wouldn't mind seeing Rose and Donald playing together tmw. Would be a great way to finish the tourney. But I agree, all it needs is one really good round tmw and someone can come from 3 or 4 back. So glad the missus is into her golf. Me her beer and snack on the sofa tmw

posted on 16/6/13

Good ole Donald will finally win a major or fall apart tomorrow?

posted on 16/6/13

Fell apart tonite.

The field is 1779 over par for the championship. Remarkable

posted on 16/6/13

Well i have just stuck a fiver on Hunter Mahan @ 7/1

posted on 16/6/13

Jason Day at 12-1 is tempting

posted on 16/6/13

There are at least half a dozen there with a chance of winning their first major.

comment by kinsang (U3346)

posted on 16/6/13

Out of the top 4 or 6, a couple will probably have mediocre rounds, leaving the rest to contend. One player will emerge from the pack, and when I say emerge, around here that is probably shooting 67 or 68 to set a decent clubhouse total that will earn a top 3 finish, and depending how the pressure mounts up, maybe a win.

With all that in mind, and looking at the prices, there appears to be some great value out there.

I have gone for Stricker at 7s, and a few fun bets on Stenson, Kim and Gonzo in the hope that one of them sets that clubhouse total. Of course Stricker could be the one that shoots that poor round, but as Monty backed Mahon I coudn't have him, and I just wonder if both Day and Fowler will find it tough to play well again today after yesterday's great rounds.

Of course Schwartzel has been consistent for the past few tournaments, and as it's not a birdie-fest, his not so hot putter of recent weeks may not be a great disadvantage.

Rose and Donald may inspire each other, but I just feel that Stricker may fit the steady but solid player that has been the mantle of many recent US Open winners. And of course if Phil wins it, wouldn't begrudge him that at all.

posted on 16/6/13

Just impossible to call really. Supposedly there's a little rain in the area too. Won't be the least bit surprised to see a playoff at the end of it all.

Regarding Mikelson, I don't have any real feelings toward him one way or the other, but if he does lose it today I hope it's because someone else lights the place up rather than Phil falling apart

posted on 16/6/13

Had Fowler at 40s at the start so I'm hoping he can do something similar to yesterday but I can't see it. Just as likely to shoot another 76 as he is to an under-par round.

Day indeed does look very tempting at 12s but got to agree that Stricker looks a decent wager. Really steady round from him around par could win this but then again this is so tough to call.

Out of the realistic contenders there's only two previous Major winners but I'm not too sure that will play much of a part on this course.

Merion has delivered a wonderful Major here. The back 9 has the potential for utter carnage later this evening. Coupled with the nerves as well, should be good.

Strong possibility we'll be watching tomorrow as well you'd suspect.

posted on 16/6/13

Although I back Mahon and Rose at the start my money is going on Stricker for his fir

posted on 16/6/13

*st major.

comment by kinsang (U3346)

posted on 16/6/13

Anyone who played the last 2 holes in par will have felt that they have gained a shot or two. It's almost one of those days that if your fancy makes a good start, in the back of your mind you think, something's going to go wrong here, whereas someone who is just plodding a long and not doing much may just go onto to take the title whilst others are falling away.

I don't think previous experience will count for much either, the course is so tough it's a case of trying to survive a little bit better than the others. Done a few 2 ball bets also, but with the way the course is playing, being a few shots down on the final couple of holes can so easily be overturned, nothing can be taken for granted.

posted on 16/6/13

It's gonna be a facinating day. Everyone will be jockeying for position, picking up shots here and there, and come the last 5 holes its all gonna come down to holding your nerve and not dropping too many shots. This is where Rose and Donald have had trouble this week, so even if one or either is in the mix they've got potential problems there.

comment by AHB (U13431)

posted on 16/6/13

Woods triple-bogeyed the 2nd today. He'd birdied the first too. So if he had a charge in mind that's that done and dusted.

comment by kinsang (U3346)

posted on 16/6/13

No-one has shot better than 67 - don't see that changing now. Anyone from about +5 might have a chance, because the leaders could drop a hatful of shots over the closing holes, so someone with no pressure and a bit of luck could get into the clubhouse early and just watch the rest start dropping away.

comment by kinsang (U3346)

posted on 16/6/13

Huh has started birdie-birdie. Going to shoot that magical 59, win by 3 and I'll clean up on my pre-tournament bet......................

posted on 16/6/13

Can't see anyone doing a Graham today and serenely coasting through a 67 to win this but it's certainly there to be lost.

You'd expect a couple of mini meltdowns at some point, it's an unforgiving course. Should be a treat this.

posted on 16/6/13

Surely not, Ernie, surely not?

Wonderful start. Can he keep it going and maybe set a score around +2? Big, big if you'd think but wouldn't it be something.

posted on 16/6/13

Alright, back home for the day. Sitting on my lazy äss with a beer and the golf. Big guns coming out shortly. Jason Day's gone to 14/1. In having some of that.

Only a wee bit mind u

posted on 16/6/13

Should ask admin to go live with the thread Kinsang.

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