Some interesting bits in there.
Read another piece which said teams with a 90+ points haul or something have never finished below 10th in the first season back.

I think we have little to fear, it won't be easy but well within our capabilities to be challenging a play off spot, getting off to a good start will be key, momentum will be the difference between us having a good year or an average year.

never never or never in the Prem era

Incidentally, last time we made the transition after 88/89 promotion, we finished 10th with 67pts, 7pts off the play offs. (Baggies were 20th with 51 that year and oxford utd were 17th...good times!)

The stats there clearly show there is a significant difference in quality between the leagues with the vast majority of promoted teams managing mid table at best.

I would like to think we can do better than that. The players will go into next season full of confidence and the challenge for Jackett will be to bring in a few players that make us stronger, and to blend those players into his team.

It will be important how some of the players who we signed from that level get on. Championship teams were prepared to let Jacobs, Henry, Golbourne, Ricketts and Dicko go cheaply, and they are going to need to prove their old employers wrong to do so, if we are to do well.

I don't know what the source even was Lizard, but i assume since the prem era, football seems to have rebooted all due to a name change.

Personally i don't think the championship is high on quality, its just a straight out slug fest, it appears that this seasons sixth placed side is going to have a little more than 70 points, i see no reason why that cannot be a realistic target next season.

I worry about our formation more than anything.

History shows that teams who generally play with a 4-4-2 do better. (Leicester, Burnley, QPR).

We can adapt back to this, using Sako and Jacobs as wingers. It requires Price to step up to play alongside McDonald. Clarke needs to work better with Dicko.

So that's where I'm at. I believe Clarke and Price are key to us next season and I'd bring in two better players for them in the summer from the off to give them competition.

I think the formation will be fine and hope it isn't binned early if things are slow to get going.
No idea what Kenny used at Millwall to be honest, not real easy to find out now i guess.

Heard rumours of Hogan being a likely arrival the last few days and some throwing Trotters name about, was with Kenny at Millwall and out of contract this summer after a loan to Bolton expires, believe he would be one to push Prices position wouldn't he?

Interesting point pundit. And of course McCarthy got us up with a 4-4-2 too.

I would be amazed if Clarke played many games for us next season but I do rate Price highly and he can only get better.

I'm sure we will bring in another striker to give us the option of playing 4-4-2 but I have to say I do like the 4-2-3-1 set up we used for much of this season and I see no reason why it shouldn't work for us in the Championship.

Regarding formations, this is how the championship clubs lined up last time out if we follow transfermarkts.coms opinion.

4-4-2...Leicester, Burnley, Bournemouth, Doncaster, Yeovil
4-2-3-1...QPR, Bolton, Notts Forest, Reading, Birmingham, Sheff Weds
3-5-2....Watford, Leeds, Huddersfield
4-3-3...Derby, Brighton, Ipswich
4-4-1-1....Blackburn, Millwall
4-1-4-1....Blackpool, Charlton
3-4-3...Wigan(cup final)
3-2-4-1....Mids'boro
4-5-1....Barnsley

Not sure how much weight can be put into some of those, but the site does come across as pretty thorough in general.

Man City, Man Utd, Chelsea and Everton play/played 4-2-3-1 last time out, Arsenal, Liverpool a 4-3-3 and spurs 4-4-2.

So, in short, it doesn't tell us much

Looking at those stats, more teams (9) have been relegated back to the third division within 3 years of promotion than have gone on to get promotion to the Prem (6). Most have finished mid -table (11th to 14th).

Taking our rose-tinted-specs off, as Wolves' fans, why should we do any better or worse than the stats tell us. We might! but the likelihood is that we will do as the stats suggest.
As I read it (you gamblers tell me I'm wrong), the odds are 15:1 that we go straight through the Champo to the Prem, 5:1 that we get promoted within 3 years.
10:1 that we go straight back down again and 10:3 that we go back down within three seasons.
So, more likely to be relegated than promoted in year 1

Thanks to Lizard for posting these interesting stats.

The important thing about formations is to play the set up that gets the best out of your best players. I don't think Jackett had any pre-meditated idea to play 4-2-3-1 after Xmas he just wanted to put Sako, Jacobs and Henry all in his team and that was the best way of fitting them in.

I think you are right Cyp that the stats show clearly there is a big difference between league one and the championship and most promoted teams don't bridge that gap. Hopefully the fact that we were only at that level because of the incompetent managers we had last season will give us a head start

comment by Cyp (U16330)
posted 2 hours, 20 minutes ago

As I read it (you gamblers tell me I'm wrong), the odds are 15:1 that we go straight through the Champo to the Prem.

I'm no gambler Cyp but if the bookies are only giving 15:1 that we go straight back up to the Prem I would be amazed.

No Premiership team has ever had 2 successive relegations followed by 2 successive promotions.

Now that would be a record worth having.
Do I think we can do it? I think it's possible even though the stats are against us.
If I could get 50:1 from a bookmaker I would stick 50 quid on it, but 15:1? I wouldn't waste the shoe leather walking down there .

comment by DJ (U17289)
posted 16 minutes ago

I think you are right Cyp that the stats show clearly there is a big difference between league one and the championship and most promoted teams don't bridge that gap.
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Ha ha, think this is why people are sceptical about stats, as people usually have a pre-existing view and seek it out in the data.

I would say that almost the opposite is true. Obviously the standard is - on average - higher in the Championship than in League 1. But I don't think these data justify talk of a "big difference" or a "gap", just as there might not be a major gap between the Premier league and the Championship.

Look again at those numbers. Of 20 automatically promoted teams, 5 end up in Prem within 3 years versus 6 returning to League 1, i.e. similar number of departures in both directions. For me, talk of a gap would indicate a serious discrepancy between these numbers with significantly more clubs returning to whence they came. Many of the clubs who manage 2 pts per game in league 1 have made a mockery of talk of a gap, quickly going on to gain their second promotion or compete at the top of the Championship.

Think there are some gaps opening up in the football hierarchy which are really difficult to bridge. There's about half a dozen clubs at the top of the Prem who are adrift of the rest. Southampton and Newcastle then look to be in a little bracket of their own as teams not fighting relegation, with almost everyone else in a group of strugglers thereafter. But the divide between bottom of the Prem and top of the Champ might not be major, with there probably not being a lot of difference to shout about between Stoke, Norwich and Reading. There is then probably another divide in the Championship, separating those who can compete for promotion from those who cannot (consistently at least). This is a Premier league created divide again with recent members of that division often at a financial advantage and then there's always a few clubs being bankrolled by rich foreigners who are desperate to get a club in the Prem.

So, our points tally this season really does seem to indicate we've got a team of real Championship potential, whilst our recent Prem years and large fan base should give us the financial clout to carry on building and bridge any gap that may exist within the Champ. Whether we do or not will be down to the quality of management from Morgan through Moxey, Thelwell and Jackett.

UTW!

An interesting read that shows how a typical promoted L1 team may fair in the Championship but it obviously prompts a very important question that impacts massively on its relevance to us:

How close are we to a typical promoted L1 team?

I would suggest that a team that has only had one season at this level and is still receiving parachute payments is pretty atypical and that it’s therefore almost impossible to use these figures to quantify our chances.

Hey Tatter. Yep, you're right. Looking at it in this way removes all the other variables that contribute but i think the major thing to come out is that if you do really well in league 1 (for whatever reason), there's a decent chance you'll do well in the Champ in the reasonably short term.

I agree with Tatter in that we aren't similar to other teams having been in championship not so long ago.. if you did a similar survey on teams getting relegated from prem, i would assume we would be unique in managing to then get relegated immediately to league 1.

Therefore stats really do go out of the window.. it's all down to how a team is setup on and off the pitch.. if we do well in the summer and strenghten in the right places whilst maintaining this team spirit Kenny has created, then i dont see why we cant go into the championship looking to do real damage to teams.

It could all go horribly wrong very quickly.

Villa sign Batth
Arsenal sign Ikeme
Albion sign Jacobs and Price

Wolves were offered such good prices that they could not resist - the aggressive agents of Ikeme and Batth, the lure of the Premiership, 100% wage increases (200% in Jacobs' and Price's cases) and the need for Morgan to finance further rebuilding of his palatial home in the Maldives all proved that there is no loyalty in football whatsoever.

Crowds dropped to below 15,000 as Wolves spent the whole season anchored to the foot of the table. The final straw was when Kenny Jackett walked out of the job mid-September, citing broken promises from the Wolves hierarchy.

He would go on to manage West Bromwich Albion and lead them to a top seven finish.

Rumours have it that a North Korean chewing gum magnate has made a bid of £20m for the ailing club and that Steve Morgan is preparing to cut his loses now that he is free from the time-linked selling restrictions imposed by the previous owner.

We are now in 2017 and Wolverhampton Wrigglys are out of business, like so many other once-famous clubs.

Thats quite a positive outlook for you uncle.

comment by UH (U16263)
posted 35 minutes ago
It could all go horribly wrong very quickly.

Villa sign Batth
Arsenal sign Ikeme
Albion sign Jacobs and Price

Wolves were offered such good prices that they could not resist - the aggressive agents of Ikeme and Batth, the lure of the Premiership, 100% wage increases (200% in Jacobs' and Price's cases) and the need for Morgan to finance further rebuilding of his palatial home in the Maldives all proved that there is no loyalty in football whatsoever.

Crowds dropped to below 15,000 as Wolves spent the whole season anchored to the foot of the table. The final straw was when Kenny Jackett walked out of the job mid-September, citing broken promises from the Wolves hierarchy.

He would go on to manage West Bromwich Albion and lead them to a top seven finish.

Rumours have it that a North Korean chewing gum magnate has made a bid of £20m for the ailing club and that Steve Morgan is preparing to cut his loses now that he is free from the time-linked selling restrictions imposed by the previous owner.

We are now in 2017 and Wolverhampton Wrigglys are out of business, like so many other once-famous clubs.
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This is why we have to stop the kids of today choosing
Crystal Meth as the way forward


Just say NO kids

Agree with you lizard, doesn't show me a large gap either.
The size of club pays a part as well, if for example a Leyton orient wins promotion, it has very little likelyhood of promotion to the prem and probably has a short shelf life in the champo in general.
But the clubs with some stature seem to manage to stick around and generally only ended up in league one in the first place due to mis-management or financial strife.

Put some stats up a while back regarding first seasons back in the champo.

Going back to 2000-01 season, of 39 promoted teams, 7 hit top six in season 1, 17 hit top half and 4 got relegated.

Kenny has done a great job considering he's built a brand new side and this squad has got better as the season has progressed.

It seems he prefers a 4-2-3-1 system and I see no reason why it cannot do well next season. Many sides in the Premiership use it and I believe it has helped us keeping a record 24 clean sheets thus far. 4-4-2 was used by a previous manager and it worked well at Championship level, but was seen to fail once we got up. I'm sure KJ will play it occasionally should he feel it appropriate, but keeping clean sheets will help us no end next season and we do that better with only a lone striker.

This squad will come back fresh and full of confidence and if we can get off to a decent start I see no reason why we can't finish in the top half. A play off spot may be too much in our first season, but with a few additions, maybe we can get back up to the top flight within 2-3 years.

1/1 = 100%

Bookies have us at 8/13 for a top half finish.

4-1 for promotion and 16-1 to win the title.

Lump on 4-1 for promotion. Didn't we get that last week!

Alas this is next season, though I think the price is slightly distorted because Wolves are likely getting a lot of action due to just being promoted, I am sure it will settle down before the season starts to around 6/1 or 7/1.