Royal Ascot

You better believe it KTN

My tips (for what they're worth)

2:30 2 tips in this race...

TEPIN and BELARDO

Stick with me, you'll wear diamonds :-0

Tepin
Carravagio

Sorry about the formatting, but here is some analysis of 5000+ races, I did to show you how the bookmakers odds differ from the actual true odds of a horse winning.

Eg. a 14/1 shot has a true chance of 18.5/1 and will cost you 28.5p for every £1 you were to bet.

Thoughts?....


Odds Decimal, Actual Odds, Return per £1 staked
1.2 1.22 0.9886
1.22 1.25 0.9794
1.25 1.36 0.9184
1.29 1.3 0.9878
1.3 1.32 0.9857
1.33 1.4 0.9504
1.36 1.49 0.9166
1.4 1.43 0.9872
1.44 1.46 0.992
1.5 1.63 0.9178
1.53 1.65 0.9351
1.57 1.75 0.8931
1.62 1.74 0.9248
1.67 1.81 0.9195
1.73 1.86 0.9255
1.8 1.92 0.9279
1.83 1.98 0.9164
1.9 2.01 0.9391
1.91 2.01 0.955
2 2.22 0.9018
2.1 2.26 0.9235
2.2 2.39 0.9287
2.25 2.33 0.9761
2.38 2.5 0.951
2.5 2.76 0.9047
2.63 2.81 0.9379
2.75 2.97 0.9342
2.88 3.02 0.9471
3 3.35 0.9042
3.13 3.51 0.8912
3.25 3.63 0.8881
3.5 3.75 0.9193
3.75 3.96 0.9348
4 4.39 0.912
4.33 4.7 0.9248
4.5 5.01 0.9068
5 5.71 0.876
5.5 6.04 0.92
6 6.82 0.8629
6.5 7.52 0.8867
7 8.29 0.8621
7.5 8.77 0.8769
8 9.54 0.8062
8.5 9.68 0.8608
9 11.29 0.8055
9.5 11.82 0.7691
10 12.44 0.804
11 14.04 0.7911
12 14.99 0.8337
13 17.48 0.715
15 20.92 0.6829
17 25.45 0.655
19 24.94 0.802
21 33.11 0.604
23 30.12 0.83
26 45.87 0.545
29 44.44 0.75
34 71.43 0.4667
41 85.47 0.585
51 147.06 0.34
67 208.33 0.48
81 250 0.4
101 400 0.25
126 238.1 0.42
151 666.67 0.15

5000 races ffs Admin

So essentially the difference between the 'real odds' and the actual odds to customers are where the bookies are making their money are you trying to say?

I'm sure the criteria you used to put that together is highly complex but my thoughts are:

Pick the winning horse, bet on it, you can't lose

comment by Koo Tee Neo (U9135)
posted 1 minute ago
5000 races ffs Admin

So essentially the difference between the 'real odds' and the actual odds to customers are where the bookies are making their money are you trying to say?

I'm sure the criteria you used to put that together is highly complex but my thoughts are:

Pick the winning horse, bet on it, you can't lose

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yes so if you bet a 20/1 horse..... if the bookies were giving a fair price and not making a profit you would be offered 32/1. Which is why longer odds absolutely kill the punter.

But if the odds are skewed for every horse, it doesn't really make a difference, does it?

comment by terminator1 (U1863)
posted 46 minutes ago
But if the odds are skewed for every horse, it doesn't really make a difference, does it?
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What do you mean, term?

Admins table says we are losing out on potential winnings on all the horses, albeit smaller losses on shorter priced odds.

Obviously would need to know more about how the real odds were calculated to have a full opinion but I'll take Admins word for it in this case.

Not quite sure what the logic behind there being such big differences for long prices to be honest. Obviously the bookies are going to be shafting you regardless of sport betting choice but out of them Racing is a pretty unpredictable one.

In general I'd say it's much more likely to see a 25/1 shot seeing in racing than in football or tennis for example. At the end of the day you are betting on free- willed animals, which on any day the favourite could decide he just doesn't fancy putting in the effort.

I think there are probably more aspects at play relating to the above which may make a 28-1 shot in racing a much more dangerous one to bookmakers than in other sports which is why the bookies try to protect themselves more.

Depends on how much you follow the sport I guess, if you do you may understand more what I'm getting at. I assume you'll be sticking to footy betting now though

What it says is if you bet on 200 horses at odds of 2.25 the true odds are 2.33 which result in you getting 97p back for every £1 wagered. So over 200 horses you would only be 3% down.

But if you were to bet 200 horses at 21.0 the true odds are 33.11 which results in you ending up 40% down over the 200 bets, you only get 60p for every £1 wagered.

What the data tells you is that the longer the bookmakers odds, the larger the bookies profit as the variance from the true odds is much larger. A punter looking at from might think 20/1 offers value, when it almost certainly does not.

Obviously would need to know more about how the real odds were calculated to have a full opinion but I'll take Admins word for it in this case.
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The real odds are calculated by looking at the total number of races featuring a price X and the total number of races where price X won. Then you divide total2 over total1. Giving you the true odds.

comment by Koo Tee Neo (U9135)
posted about 16 hours ago
5000 races ffs Admin

So essentially the difference between the 'real odds' and the actual odds to customers are where the bookies are making their money are you trying to say?

I'm sure the criteria you used to put that together is highly complex but my thoughts are:

Pick the winning horse, bet on it, you can't lose

----------------------------------------------------------------------
The last line says it all. Punters just want profit. The bookies will always shave the percentages in their favour. My tipping service is all about finding the value. My system specifically looks for horses where the bookies have got the price wrong

Coral eclipse about to be under way

Very much fancy the Gurkha here, O Brien seems pretty confident.

Hawksbill just wins from the Gurkha, good race

comment by CEF (U3090)
posted 10 days ago
comment by Koo Tee Neo (U9135)
posted about 16 hours ago
5000 races ffs Admin

So essentially the difference between the 'real odds' and the actual odds to customers are where the bookies are making their money are you trying to say?

I'm sure the criteria you used to put that together is highly complex but my thoughts are:

Pick the winning horse, bet on it, you can't lose

----------------------------------------------------------------------
The last line says it all. Punters just want profit. The bookies will always shave the percentages in their favour. My tipping service is all about finding the value. My system specifically looks for horses where the bookies have got the price wrong
----------------------------------------------------------------------
What's happening to your tipping page???

Sprinter Sacre retires today, a true great.

So the Cheltenham festival is a week away

Notable absentees include:
Barry Geraghty

Sprinter Sacre
Thistlecrack
Vautour
Faugheen
Annie Power
Min

Notable runners hopefully include:
Altoir
Yorkhill
Yanworth
Vroum Vroum Mag
Limini
Douvan
Unowhatimeanharry
Native River
Cue Card
Djakadam
On the Fringe

Any I've missed?

Week to go till Cheltenham. Disappointing to see so many of the big guns out but should be a good festival regardless.

Will post any tips I think but not followed the jumps season very closely this year, nothing stands out apart from Douvan.

Admin thanks