You are right that defensive stats are a lot harder to interpret but still there's some good progress done during the years. Using possession adjusted stats for example, expected goals after defensive errors or misplaced passes leading to fast breaks all could be some markers for player quality. But yes - this is one of the big challenges in modern football analytics.
Mustafi picked up an injury and came back when the team was going through their annual shtteshow. My biggest issue is not with personnel although we have poor players. We do however seem to play at less the sum of our parts more often than we should, so the problem lies with the coaching. We have no discernible cohesion or plan other than to keep passing and hope we catch a break and score.
You are right that defensive stats are a lot harder to interpret but still there's some good progress done during the years. Using possession adjusted stats for example, expected goals after defensive errors or misplaced passes leading to fast breaks all could be some markers for player quality. But yes - this is one of the big challenges in modern football analytics.
---------------
I agree these sound like big leaps in our interpretation of data. Not come across anything like this in mainstream football analysis aside from a few niche blogs. But still all related to on-the-ball actions and their consequences. A defender rushing out of position or letting his man get goalside of him won't get picked up by any kind of metrics. Until such advanced tools get introduced, the best we can hope for is some sort of impact analysis i.e. how does X club's defence fare with/without Y player?
comment by MaineGunner (U10130)
posted 3 hours, 33 minutes ago
Mustafi picked up an injury and came back when the team was going through their annual shtteshow. My biggest issue is not with personnel although we have poor players. We do however seem to play at less the sum of our parts more often than we should, so the problem lies with the coaching. We have no discernible cohesion or plan other than to keep passing and hope we catch a break and score.
----------------
I agree but I do think regardless of gameplan and coaching that having 2 CBs who like to play on the front-foot is a bad combination. Never worked with Koscielny and Vermaelen either. 3 at the back obviously provides a little extra cover for someone of Mustafi's nature and in fact, probably requires a CB who's comfortable closing down into midfield and stepping up to build attacks. Still a place for Mustafi in our squad.
comment by renoog (U4449)
posted 1 hour, 8 minutes ago
I agree these sound like big leaps in our interpretation of data. Not come across anything like this in mainstream football analysis aside from a few niche blogs. But still all related to on-the-ball actions and their consequences. A defender rushing out of position or letting his man get goalside of him won't get picked up by any kind of metrics. Until such advanced tools get introduced, the best we can hope for is some sort of impact analysis i.e. how does X club's defence fare with/without Y player?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
The reason for this is that most analytics rely on Opta stats and it does not include positional off the ball data. There are proxy models for defensive pressure like speed of the attack but they don't really work for personal defensive stats. And the problem with how X club's defence fare with/without Y player is that the sample is usually so small that it's hard to be of any real significance.
I'm pretty sure that there are better stats acquired and used by at least some of the clubs for private use as I've heard Wenger mentioning those in interviews but the data is not publicly available. Not sure what data they have available for scouting as some of the leagues we buy from don't have such detailed data available at all.
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Article on Mustafi's impetuousness
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posted on 9/9/17
You are right that defensive stats are a lot harder to interpret but still there's some good progress done during the years. Using possession adjusted stats for example, expected goals after defensive errors or misplaced passes leading to fast breaks all could be some markers for player quality. But yes - this is one of the big challenges in modern football analytics.
posted on 9/9/17
Mustafi picked up an injury and came back when the team was going through their annual shtteshow. My biggest issue is not with personnel although we have poor players. We do however seem to play at less the sum of our parts more often than we should, so the problem lies with the coaching. We have no discernible cohesion or plan other than to keep passing and hope we catch a break and score.
posted on 9/9/17
You are right that defensive stats are a lot harder to interpret but still there's some good progress done during the years. Using possession adjusted stats for example, expected goals after defensive errors or misplaced passes leading to fast breaks all could be some markers for player quality. But yes - this is one of the big challenges in modern football analytics.
---------------
I agree these sound like big leaps in our interpretation of data. Not come across anything like this in mainstream football analysis aside from a few niche blogs. But still all related to on-the-ball actions and their consequences. A defender rushing out of position or letting his man get goalside of him won't get picked up by any kind of metrics. Until such advanced tools get introduced, the best we can hope for is some sort of impact analysis i.e. how does X club's defence fare with/without Y player?
posted on 9/9/17
comment by MaineGunner (U10130)
posted 3 hours, 33 minutes ago
Mustafi picked up an injury and came back when the team was going through their annual shtteshow. My biggest issue is not with personnel although we have poor players. We do however seem to play at less the sum of our parts more often than we should, so the problem lies with the coaching. We have no discernible cohesion or plan other than to keep passing and hope we catch a break and score.
----------------
I agree but I do think regardless of gameplan and coaching that having 2 CBs who like to play on the front-foot is a bad combination. Never worked with Koscielny and Vermaelen either. 3 at the back obviously provides a little extra cover for someone of Mustafi's nature and in fact, probably requires a CB who's comfortable closing down into midfield and stepping up to build attacks. Still a place for Mustafi in our squad.
posted on 9/9/17
comment by renoog (U4449)
posted 1 hour, 8 minutes ago
I agree these sound like big leaps in our interpretation of data. Not come across anything like this in mainstream football analysis aside from a few niche blogs. But still all related to on-the-ball actions and their consequences. A defender rushing out of position or letting his man get goalside of him won't get picked up by any kind of metrics. Until such advanced tools get introduced, the best we can hope for is some sort of impact analysis i.e. how does X club's defence fare with/without Y player?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
The reason for this is that most analytics rely on Opta stats and it does not include positional off the ball data. There are proxy models for defensive pressure like speed of the attack but they don't really work for personal defensive stats. And the problem with how X club's defence fare with/without Y player is that the sample is usually so small that it's hard to be of any real significance.
I'm pretty sure that there are better stats acquired and used by at least some of the clubs for private use as I've heard Wenger mentioning those in interviews but the data is not publicly available. Not sure what data they have available for scouting as some of the leagues we buy from don't have such detailed data available at all.
Page 1 of 1