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Consequences of negligence

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posted on 20/4/21

comment by Don Draper's dandruff (U20155)
posted 1 minute ago
80% is probably about right, last PL tv deal was £4.5bn, last EFL deal was £600m, if you boot out the big six at the end of the season, and keep relegation as it usually is, then next year's PL is literally half a championship one (or 45%, 9 out of 20).

so the next tv deal, being negotiated this year, falls towards EFL levels.
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wow, I thought someone just plucked that 20% value out of thin air

Your explanation makes so much sense mathematically. In fact, if I was a business it will be my arguement too

one thing that it does not take into consideration because no one knows yet is the level of demand. Will demand suddenly evaporate to 20% because more than logical maths the biggest factor is going to be demand

posted on 20/4/21

comment by Chester Chesterton III (U1308)
posted 2 minutes ago

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So a bit of a guess then?

Nothi my to back this figure up as yet.
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well of course it's a guess, the deal is being renegotiated this year, the parties hadn't even come to the table, and then this sh!tstorm broke, so i doubt even the parties involved have had time to crunch the numbers.

but take out the big 6 and you're left with very little, everton i will admit i feel a bit sorry for, leicester have won the title recently, but wolves were a championship club 5 or so years ago, leeds are back in the top flight for the first time in decades, and teams like burnley and palace don't get too many juices flowing.

so i'd think any new deal would basically be an EFL on steroids-type deal, though if the clubs left behind did end up as the new CL/EL teams, that would promote the PL brand a bit.

but feel free to make your own guess, unless you happen to be the PL executive leading the negotiations, in which case feel free to give us a heads up.

posted on 20/4/21

comment by Mason, Marcus, Martial - Mountains are there to be climbed (U3867)
posted 8 minutes ago
comment by welshpoolfan (U7693)
posted 38 minutes ago
comment by Garner be a star (U13920)
posted 6 minutes ago
comment by welshpoolfan (U7693)
posted 5 seconds ago
comment by Garner be a star (U13920)
posted 16 minutes ago
comment by Chester Chesterton III (U1308)
posted 6 minutes ago
Stop a Euro Super League? Easy, block entry to the PL.

Sure that’s possible
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If the ESL takes off the EPL status will be greatly reduced (at least in the short term). Revenue will also dwindle as sponsors will most likely prioritise the ESL over the EPL.

All expulsion will do is relieve the ESL clubs from their EPL commitments
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Why do those sponsors not prioritise the CL over the EPL now?
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The biggest sponsors want to reach the biggest audience to market their goods/services. The UCL is currently the best platform for this in club football for the biggest business wanting to reach an europe/worldwide audience. The ESL will be in direct competition with the UCL (for everything including sponsors) hence UEFA's fury among other reasons.

Unlike the UCL, the ESL financial package is such that participating clubs will inevitably prioritise the ESL over any EPL commitment, if they are allowed tos stay. Potentially devaluing the EPL and its appeal to its traditional sponsors. If you are a business owner will you continue to pay the same rate advertise on a website with less traffic because its main attraction (top 6 clubs) is no longer there?
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Everything you say is reasonable, but I just am not sure the assumptions work. The big 6 are not trying to leave the EPL, so sponsors won't be paying for the main attraction to not be there.

I suppose you could make the argument that without needing to qualify the big 6 clubs might not try as hard and so will perform worse and this will cause sponsorship to go down, but again is this likely to happen? The teams and players are still going to be the best in the league and are still going to be trying to win every game, even if just to cement their place in the team. Also, half of the teams will be out of the ESL after round 1 so at that point the only thing those clubs would have left to do is play in the EPL.
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So if we go by this seasons form say if Spurs and Arsenal are out of the ESL first round, and are sitting outside contention for the league title (which is completely conceivable)...what's motivating them to do well? They are already in the following seasons ESL and as long as they are in no danger of relgation they are fine. At least a t moment they have the carrot of European football dangled in front of them to keep them honest
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Money. Based on the situation at the moment, the difference between finishing 5th in the league and 10th is a little over £10 million.

If we agree that the super league is financially driven, then clubs aren't going to want the team to not perform in the matches that they have to play anyway if it will gain them an extra £10 million to do well.

Outside of this is the players themselves. You gave just gone out of the Super League in round 1 so the club are going to be desperate to do better next season. You are going to have to prove you are up to the task or you might be shipped out so you will be trying your hardest in training and in the PL games you have left.

posted on 20/4/21

comment by Mason, Marcus, Martial - Mountains are there to be climbed (U3867)
posted 4 minutes ago
comment by welshpoolfan (U7693)
posted 38 minutes ago
comment by Garner be a star (U13920)
posted 6 minutes ago
comment by welshpoolfan (U7693)
posted 5 seconds ago
comment by Garner be a star (U13920)
posted 16 minutes ago
comment by Chester Chesterton III (U1308)
posted 6 minutes ago
Stop a Euro Super League? Easy, block entry to the PL.

Sure that’s possible
----------------------------------------------------------------------
If the ESL takes off the EPL status will be greatly reduced (at least in the short term). Revenue will also dwindle as sponsors will most likely prioritise the ESL over the EPL.

All expulsion will do is relieve the ESL clubs from their EPL commitments
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Why do those sponsors not prioritise the CL over the EPL now?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
The biggest sponsors want to reach the biggest audience to market their goods/services. The UCL is currently the best platform for this in club football for the biggest business wanting to reach an europe/worldwide audience. The ESL will be in direct competition with the UCL (for everything including sponsors) hence UEFA's fury among other reasons.

Unlike the UCL, the ESL financial package is such that participating clubs will inevitably prioritise the ESL over any EPL commitment, if they are allowed tos stay. Potentially devaluing the EPL and its appeal to its traditional sponsors. If you are a business owner will you continue to pay the same rate advertise on a website with less traffic because its main attraction (top 6 clubs) is no longer there?
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Everything you say is reasonable, but I just am not sure the assumptions work. The big 6 are not trying to leave the EPL, so sponsors won't be paying for the main attraction to not be there.

I suppose you could make the argument that without needing to qualify the big 6 clubs might not try as hard and so will perform worse and this will cause sponsorship to go down, but again is this likely to happen? The teams and players are still going to be the best in the league and are still going to be trying to win every game, even if just to cement their place in the team. Also, half of the teams will be out of the ESL after round 1 so at that point the only thing those clubs would have left to do is play in the EPL.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
So if we go by this seasons form say if Spurs and Arsenal are out of the ESL first round, and are sitting outside contention for the league title (which is completely conceivable)...what's motivating them to do well? They are already in the following seasons ESL and as long as they are in no danger of relgation they are fine. At least a t moment they have the carrot of European football dangled in front of them to keep them honest
----------------------------------------------------------------------
you are correct but you are looking at things from a players/managers/fans point of view. To understand the situation you need to look at it from a club owners pov.

you play 18 to 23 glamorous fixtures, earn more from the ESL than you can EPL and UCL combined. The club chances of winning the ESL is no lower than chances they had of winning UCL.

In the event of an early exit after 18 games. Do you think the owners will be disappointed they can not continue to participate in what they deem an inferior league or will relish the chance to have some glamorous friendly and make even more money?

posted on 20/4/21

I'd take a different view to the OP.

Yes, we should acknowledge the grubby motives of other organisations, and the way that the PL and the CL have contributed to the growing inequality in the game, which in turn has fostered the sense of entitlement of the wealthiest clubs and attracted the kinds of owners who look at the heritage and community surrounding football with absolute contempt.

But that doesn't mean the Super League isn't a rupture that does more than any previous moral compromise to destroy the sport. Reducing the risks for big clubs is one thing. Eliminating the possibility of relegation and cutting off the possibility for those left on the outside to compete is a qualitative shift in unfairness and arrogance. It's a coup. A power grab by a bunch of teams that have no right to take custody of the elite sport at club level. They don't even represent the biggest clubs by support or the most successful historically or best clubs currently. It's a disgrace on a far greater level than the incremental chipping away that happened over the last decades (and incidentally that chipping away happened in part because UEFA was under pressure from the richest clubs to guarantee their revenues, with the threat of a breakaway always implicit).

The other thing is that if we take the somewhat cynical view that 'they're all as bad as each other' and 'things were already corrupted' and 'this was always inevitable', then it's logical to lie down and accept it. I don't agree that it's inevitable and I won't accept it. Sufficient outrage will fuel toxicity that creates caution among potential sponsors, which in turn informs their precious business plans. Sufficient outrage will encourage opportunistic politicians (like our current government) to win plaudits by fighting the plans. They probably can't prevent the league from forming, but they can create conditions that reduce its financial viability.

We cannot accept this.

posted on 20/4/21

comment by Don Draper's dandruff (U20155)
posted 11 minutes ago
comment by Chester Chesterton III (U1308)
posted 2 minutes ago

----------------------------------------------------------------------

So a bit of a guess then?

Nothi my to back this figure up as yet.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
well of course it's a guess, the deal is being renegotiated this year, the parties hadn't even come to the table, and then this sh!tstorm broke, so i doubt even the parties involved have had time to crunch the numbers.

but take out the big 6 and you're left with very little, everton i will admit i feel a bit sorry for, leicester have won the title recently, but wolves were a championship club 5 or so years ago, leeds are back in the top flight for the first time in decades, and teams like burnley and palace don't get too many juices flowing.

so i'd think any new deal would basically be an EFL on steroids-type deal, though if the clubs left behind did end up as the new CL/EL teams, that would promote the PL brand a bit.

but feel free to make your own guess, unless you happen to be the PL executive leading the negotiations, in which case feel free to give us a heads up.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Not going to make a guess based on a value given to the Champioship.

Why would anyone do that, however I know the value won’t be as high as before, we have just had the worst financial hit in years due to Covid.


But throw in Amazon/a Facebook to the bidding for bigger blocks of games and you have competition. The PL has a massive TV audience.

But yeah, I don’t agree with the 20% banded about.

posted on 20/4/21

comment by Chester Chesterton III (U1308)
posted 3 minutes ago
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Not going to make a guess based on a value given to the Champioship.

Why would anyone do that, however I know the value won’t be as high as before, we have just had the worst financial hit in years due to Covid.


But throw in Amazon/a Facebook to the bidding for bigger blocks of games and you have competition. The PL has a massive TV audience.

But yeah, I don’t agree with the 20% banded about.
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80% is probably worse-case, i'd, erm, guess that 50% is best-case, though god knows what sky for instance would do, they've already lost a lot of sports, the PL has always been the jewel in their crown, so maybe they overbid in a desperate attempt to retain customers.

because for sure sky sports can't market itself as eg "the home of women's football" and expect to thrive.

posted on 20/4/21

The other thing is that if we take the somewhat cynical view that 'they're all as bad as each other' and 'things were already corrupted' and 'this was always inevitable', then it's logical to lie down and accept it. I don't agree that it's inevitable and I won't accept it. Sufficient outrage will fuel toxicity that creates caution among potential sponsors, which in turn informs their precious business plans. Sufficient outrage will encourage opportunistic politicians (like our current government) to win plaudits by fighting the plans. They probably can't prevent the league from forming, but they can create conditions that reduce its financial viability.

We cannot accept this.

-----------------

Gary Neville described this lot as bottle merchants and you have to say he's spot on when you consider the timing of this.

Can you imagine the level outrage and venom that would have been at a packed Elland Road last night.

Can you imagine Ed Woodward or the glazers sitting smugly in the stands as 70 thousand fans direct abuse at them and similar reaction I'm sure at Anfield for liverpool owners and directors.

Fans will not accept this





posted on 20/4/21

comment by Red Russian (U4715)
posted 10 minutes ago
I'd take a different view to the OP.
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When I saw your first line, I was intrigued because you are one of the posters I actually tend to take note of

reading your post, I feel we agree and you haven't said anything I disagree with nor have I anything you disagreed with.

The difference is our focus. My focus for this article is why we are here. I felt there is already enough articles, comments and opinion on why the ESL is a terrible idea. Focusing on how bad it is the right thing to do but we also must not lose track of why we are here least we find ourselves in an even worse situation as football fans.

posted on 20/4/21

comment by Don Draper's dandruff (U20155)
posted 8 minutes ago
comment by Chester Chesterton III (U1308)
posted 3 minutes ago
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Not going to make a guess based on a value given to the Champioship.

Why would anyone do that, however I know the value won’t be as high as before, we have just had the worst financial hit in years due to Covid.


But throw in Amazon/a Facebook to the bidding for bigger blocks of games and you have competition. The PL has a massive TV audience.

But yeah, I don’t agree with the 20% banded about.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
80% is probably worse-case, i'd, erm, guess that 50% is best-case, though god knows what sky for instance would do, they've already lost a lot of sports, the PL has always been the jewel in their crown, so maybe they overbid in a desperate attempt to retain customers.

because for sure sky sports can't market itself as eg "the home of women's football" and expect to thrive.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Even if it is a loss of 50% it will be hugely damaging. Using 2018 accounts (ones I could easily find on the guardian), Brighton's turnover was £139 million. £110 million of this was tv revenue. Assuming all else stays the same then a halving of the TV income means their revenue drops to £84 million. This migh still seem huge butnit turns the £12 million profit they made into a £43 million loss and that their wages to turn over ratio becomes 93%.

For Crystal Palace, the numbers go from 150 Mill turnover to 90 million. This means their income is lower than their 117 million wage bill, and their 36 million loss becomes a 96 million loss.

If the PL TV revenue did drop significantly then a lot of clubs could be in trouble if their wage obligations remain.

comment by Busby (U19985)

posted on 20/4/21

Love him or loathe him, Jeremy Corbyn called this 2 years ago.

posted on 20/4/21

comment by welshpoolfan (U7693)
posted 1 minute ago

If the PL TV revenue did drop significantly then a lot of clubs could be in trouble if their wage obligations remain.
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yup, and unlike most companies a football club's costs are largely fixed for years at a time - because of long-term contracts for the players - so the usual remedy for a fall in revenues, ie fire a load of people and save on their wages, just isn't available.

so it becomes really, really difficult for the other PL clubs to adopt the stance of their fans on here, and just say "f()ck the big 6, we can live without them". because over the medium/long term that may be true, but over a 1-3 year period they'd be right in the sh!t, stuck with a load of PL players on old school £80k+ a week salaries.

posted on 20/4/21

I hear VAR won't be used in ESL

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