comment by Rosso out here drippin’ in finesse (U17054)
posted 8 minutes ago
comment by Two Balls, One Saka (U19684)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Rosso out here drippin’ in finesse (U17054)
posted 16 minutes ago
comment by Boy From The South (U3979)
posted 2 minutes ago
I'm all for low taxes but boy have they fvcked it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Nigh on 80 years since the end of WWII, and I’d say there’s more than ample evidence to add low taxation to the list of stupid politico-economic ideas.
Nationalistic unilateralism - stupid
Erecting trade barriers - stupid
Emaciating healthcare provision and social safety nets - stupid
Low infrastructure investment - stupid
Privatisation of critical utilities - stupid
Unprogressive personal taxation - stupid
Enabling growth of wealth divide - stupid
Year after year of real terms pay cuts for bottom half - stupid
Deregulation of financial services sector - stupid
All facking stupid as demonstrated by nearly a century of empirical evidence. Shiiiit for the economy, shiiiit for the social fabric of the country, all supported by the Tories
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Trade barriers aren't bad necessarily
With enough clout a country or block could in theory raise standards on wages, environment, tax etc and refuse to deal with or negatively tariff countries with low standards.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I could have qualified that one, granted.
Although it certainly applies as written to Brexit (and arguably the majority of cases in which it is applied).
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yeah of course. Knew what you meant and agree with the list
To me at least smart trade barriers are probably one of the few ways more developed nations can encourage ones with poor standards into positive action, just felt like getting that in there
(Not that there's a developed nation not harming the environment)
This goes to show what a gamble the Cons are taking with this economic policy. It's all very well challenging the orthodoxy, in theory it could well work out, but markets work on orthodoxy, do something different against common wisdom, take risks and investors get the jitters. The selling of the pound we are seeing makes it harder for this economic plan to work out BUT at the same time things have to be given time to work through. None of the measures have actually come into force, nothing spent yet, no extra money in peoples pockets. Markets almost always overact in the short term, it's just a case of whether any confidence returns and things stabilise in the short term and we have the time to see how this plan pans out, or worst case there is a run on the currency and things will spiral downwards.
What logic is there for it 'work out'. All the serious analysts I have spoken to incl one at IFS says it is doomed from the very start. Which is why Truss has not done any growth forecasts with the OBR.
comment by Jenius99 (U4918)
posted 10 minutes ago
What logic is there for it 'work out'. All the serious analysts I have spoken to incl one at IFS says it is doomed from the very start. Which is why Truss has not done any growth forecasts with the OBR.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
What serious analysts do you know ffs
comment by Rosso out here drippin’ in finesse (U17054)
posted 2 hours ago
The Dollar has also strengthened significantly (and unsurprisingly given the state of the global economy), which accounts for a large part of the swing.
But whereas the Euro has lost 16% of its value against the Dollar over the last 12 months, the Pound has lost 22%, and is now heading south *far* more quickly.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Oops, pound now down 25%, not 22%
comment by Boy From The South (U3979)
posted 10 minutes ago
comment by Jenius99 (U4918)
posted 10 minutes ago
What logic is there for it 'work out'. All the serious analysts I have spoken to incl one at IFS says it is doomed from the very start. Which is why Truss has not done any growth forecasts with the OBR.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
What serious analysts do you know ffs
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Anne Brockmeyer
And there are people that actually defend this economic policy.
Mostly journos who did A level economics.
The pound will likely bounce back at some point (although may well sink lower before that).
No doubt some 5% improvement in a few months time will be spun as a success despite still being way down overall
Pound will recover after a couple of rate rises. Prediction was 3% by the end of the year. I suspect it will be nearer 4% now. I will wait to hear from Nomura. Monetary hawks all saying I told you so this morning.
comment by Jenius99 (U4918)
posted 3 minutes ago
Pound will recover after a couple of rate rises. Prediction was 3% by the end of the year. I suspect it will be nearer 4% now. I will wait to hear from Nomura. Monetary hawks all saying I told you so this morning.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Back to our convo the other day:
How can the BoE hope to get close to its targets when the govt is seemingly doing all it can to drive inflation up.
There’s an argument that says that if BoE had acted earlier with stronger rate rises, the govt might have seen an opportunity for even greater stupidity with fiscal policy
comment by Jenius99 (U4918)
posted 21 minutes ago
What logic is there for it 'work out'. All the serious analysts I have spoken to incl one at IFS says it is doomed from the very start. Which is why Truss has not done any growth forecasts with the OBR.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
If you challenge the orthodoxy, you cannot expect to be in agreement with the majority of analysts. Thats the point.
While the orthodoxy may represent the generally accepted theory, that does not make it the only means of being successful. Other means are simply untested and more risky.
comment by Jenius99 (U4918)
posted 10 minutes ago
Pound will recover after a couple of rate rises. Prediction was 3% by the end of the year. I suspect it will be nearer 4% now. I will wait to hear from Nomura. Monetary hawks all saying I told you so this morning.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Swedes raised their rates more than Uncle Sam but still the value dropped. It is more complicated than rates.
comment by Devonshirespur (U6316)
posted 7 minutes ago
comment by Jenius99 (U4918)
posted 21 minutes ago
What logic is there for it 'work out'. All the serious analysts I have spoken to incl one at IFS says it is doomed from the very start. Which is why Truss has not done any growth forecasts with the OBR.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
If you challenge the orthodoxy, you cannot expect to be in agreement with the majority of analysts. Thats the point.
While the orthodoxy may represent the generally accepted theory, that does not make it the only means of being successful. Other means are simply untested and more risky.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I mean a struggling football manager could decide to send his players out with blindfolds on because it's untested.
Doesn't mean every person with an ounce of sense can't call it incredibly stupid and predict a messy, embarrassing failure.
Unfortunately the pieces shiiite that are the Tory party are creating a mess that will harm and in fact kill many people through their awful policy
comment by Rosso out here drippin’ in finesse (U17054)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by Jenius99 (U4918)
posted 3 minutes ago
Pound will recover after a couple of rate rises. Prediction was 3% by the end of the year. I suspect it will be nearer 4% now. I will wait to hear from Nomura. Monetary hawks all saying I told you so this morning.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Back to our convo the other day:
How can the BoE hope to get close to its targets when the govt is seemingly doing all it can to drive inflation up.
There’s an argument that says that if BoE had acted earlier with stronger rate rises, the govt might have seen an opportunity for even greater stupidity with fiscal policy
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I think the problem is that as many of the main causes of high inflation are out of our control, % rates can only have a limited affect and if you do nothing while the BoE try and get it under control then peoples finances and the economy will suffer greatly
I mean a struggling football manager could decide to send his players out with blindfolds on because it's untested.
Doesn't mean every person with an ounce of sense can't call it incredibly stupid and predict a messy, embarrassing failure.
———
comment by Devonshirespur (U6316)
posted 8 minutes ago
comment by Jenius99 (U4918)
posted 21 minutes ago
What logic is there for it 'work out'. All the serious analysts I have spoken to incl one at IFS says it is doomed from the very start. Which is why Truss has not done any growth forecasts with the OBR.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
If you challenge the orthodoxy, you cannot expect to be in agreement with the majority of analysts. Thats the point.
While the orthodoxy may represent the generally accepted theory, that does not make it the only means of being successful. Other means are simply untested and more risky.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I can call any batshite idea a challenge to the orthodoxy. There has to be some logic to their thinking and I have yet to hear one qualified person defend the budget. Most giving rational reasons for why their policy is sheer stupidity is not because its orthodox thinking. Its because its common sense.
comment by Silver (U6112)
posted 11 minutes ago
comment by Jenius99 (U4918)
posted 10 minutes ago
Pound will recover after a couple of rate rises. Prediction was 3% by the end of the year. I suspect it will be nearer 4% now. I will wait to hear from Nomura. Monetary hawks all saying I told you so this morning.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Swedes raised their rates more than Uncle Sam but still the value dropped. It is more complicated than rates.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Obviously not enough. Maggie raised rates to 17% to calm the markets. You have to overshoot to send a message and unfortunately BofE doveish behaviour has been a cause of this. I doubt Truss would have even won if the BofE had raised early and hard. Sunak was spot on from the very start.
comment by Devonshirespur (U6316)
posted 44 minutes ago
comment by Rosso out here drippin’ in finesse (U17054)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by Jenius99 (U4918)
posted 3 minutes ago
Pound will recover after a couple of rate rises. Prediction was 3% by the end of the year. I suspect it will be nearer 4% now. I will wait to hear from Nomura. Monetary hawks all saying I told you so this morning.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Back to our convo the other day:
How can the BoE hope to get close to its targets when the govt is seemingly doing all it can to drive inflation up.
There’s an argument that says that if BoE had acted earlier with stronger rate rises, the govt might have seen an opportunity for even greater stupidity with fiscal policy
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I think the problem is that as many of the main causes of high inflation are out of our control, % rates can only have a limited affect and if you do nothing while the BoE try and get it under control then peoples finances and the economy will suffer greatly
----------------------------------------------------------------------
There are a raft of things the govt could do - and equally things it might not have chosen to do - to help curb inflation.
Other European governments have acted, doing everything from capping wholesale gas prices to rent controls and freezes to capping prices on public sector purchasing to controlling transport costs to cutting electricity demand to cancelling tax cuts.
Truss’s govt has instead chosen to fuel the fire.
comment by Rosso out here drippin’ in finesse (U17054)
posted 38 seconds ago
comment by Devonshirespur (U6316)
posted 44 minutes ago
comment by Rosso out here drippin’ in finesse (U17054)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by Jenius99 (U4918)
posted 3 minutes ago
Pound will recover after a couple of rate rises. Prediction was 3% by the end of the year. I suspect it will be nearer 4% now. I will wait to hear from Nomura. Monetary hawks all saying I told you so this morning.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Back to our convo the other day:
How can the BoE hope to get close to its targets when the govt is seemingly doing all it can to drive inflation up.
There’s an argument that says that if BoE had acted earlier with stronger rate rises, the govt might have seen an opportunity for even greater stupidity with fiscal policy
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I think the problem is that as many of the main causes of high inflation are out of our control, % rates can only have a limited affect and if you do nothing while the BoE try and get it under control then peoples finances and the economy will suffer greatly
----------------------------------------------------------------------
There are a raft of things the govt could do - and equally things it might not have chosen to do - to help curb inflation.
Other European governments have acted, doing everything from capping wholesale gas prices to rent controls and freezes to capping prices on public sector purchasing to controlling transport costs to cutting electricity demand to cancelling tax cuts.
Truss’s govt has instead chosen to fuel the fire.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Although I agree with your general sentiment that conservatives should do more with fiscal policy, in this case I think you underestimate the issue. There really is no other choice than to shadow the fed and in UK case be a little ahead of them with interest rate policy.
The EU obviously have a structural issue where many countries are running high deficits and they cannot do that easily.
Its unfortunate that that Truss wanted to join the idiocy of running a higher deficit with zero expected gain. At least when Corbyn proposed doing this he was actually brining in large assets into public ownership. Which imo would not have brought the growth he wanted but at least it would have had some tangible results.
comment by Jenius99 (U4918)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by Rosso out here drippin’ in finesse (U17054)
posted 38 seconds ago
comment by Devonshirespur (U6316)
posted 44 minutes ago
comment by Rosso out here drippin’ in finesse (U17054)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by Jenius99 (U4918)
posted 3 minutes ago
Pound will recover after a couple of rate rises. Prediction was 3% by the end of the year. I suspect it will be nearer 4% now. I will wait to hear from Nomura. Monetary hawks all saying I told you so this morning.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Back to our convo the other day:
How can the BoE hope to get close to its targets when the govt is seemingly doing all it can to drive inflation up.
There’s an argument that says that if BoE had acted earlier with stronger rate rises, the govt might have seen an opportunity for even greater stupidity with fiscal policy
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I think the problem is that as many of the main causes of high inflation are out of our control, % rates can only have a limited affect and if you do nothing while the BoE try and get it under control then peoples finances and the economy will suffer greatly
----------------------------------------------------------------------
There are a raft of things the govt could do - and equally things it might not have chosen to do - to help curb inflation.
Other European governments have acted, doing everything from capping wholesale gas prices to rent controls and freezes to capping prices on public sector purchasing to controlling transport costs to cutting electricity demand to cancelling tax cuts.
Truss’s govt has instead chosen to fuel the fire.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Although I agree with your general sentiment that conservatives should do more with fiscal policy, in this case I think you underestimate the issue. There really is no other choice than to shadow the fed and in UK case be a little ahead of them with interest rate policy.
The EU obviously have a structural issue where many countries are running high deficits and they cannot do that easily.
Its unfortunate that that Truss wanted to join the idiocy of running a higher deficit with zero expected gain. At least when Corbyn proposed doing this he was actually brining in large assets into public ownership. Which imo would not have brought the growth he wanted but at least it would have had some tangible results.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That IS the issue - BoE is NOT shadowing the Fed but the markets believe it should be being MORE hawkish.
Wait, the pound dropped because the government announced a 45bn tax reduction. Yet people still complain. Government cannot win, can they.
comment by Ladmin We Win (U1250)
posted 3 seconds ago
Wait, the pound dropped because the government announced a 45bn tax reduction. Yet people still complain. Government cannot win, can they.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
The general public wasn’t asking for tax cuts.
They were asking for the government to address a cost of living crisis which is busy driving 2 million more Brits into poverty, and threatening the lives of many hundreds of thousands of elderly and vulnerable people across the nation.
comment by Rosso out here drippin’ in finesse (U17054)
posted 7 minutes ago
comment by Ladmin We Win (U1250)
posted 3 seconds ago
Wait, the pound dropped because the government announced a 45bn tax reduction. Yet people still complain. Government cannot win, can they.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
The general public wasn’t asking for tax cuts.
They were asking for the government to address a cost of living crisis which is busy driving 2 million more Brits into poverty, and threatening the lives of many hundreds of thousands of elderly and vulnerable people across the nation.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Does taking less tax out of peoples pockets help in "addressing the cost of living crisis" coupled with other measures such as energy price cap and a range of one off payments.
Tax cuts have a different purpose, an attempt to keep the country's economy going at a time when a bad recession is being forecast. Ultimately, everything is going up so people also need more money to spend just to keep affording what they currently do. The Govt can do little about the price of many items in the basket of goods, especially where we are so reliant on imports, but they can take less money from you.
So have Tory voters finally accepted blame for this catastrophe?
Sign in if you want to comment
USD vs Pound sterling vs Euro 💶
Page 2 of 3
posted on 26/9/22
comment by Rosso out here drippin’ in finesse (U17054)
posted 8 minutes ago
comment by Two Balls, One Saka (U19684)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by Rosso out here drippin’ in finesse (U17054)
posted 16 minutes ago
comment by Boy From The South (U3979)
posted 2 minutes ago
I'm all for low taxes but boy have they fvcked it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Nigh on 80 years since the end of WWII, and I’d say there’s more than ample evidence to add low taxation to the list of stupid politico-economic ideas.
Nationalistic unilateralism - stupid
Erecting trade barriers - stupid
Emaciating healthcare provision and social safety nets - stupid
Low infrastructure investment - stupid
Privatisation of critical utilities - stupid
Unprogressive personal taxation - stupid
Enabling growth of wealth divide - stupid
Year after year of real terms pay cuts for bottom half - stupid
Deregulation of financial services sector - stupid
All facking stupid as demonstrated by nearly a century of empirical evidence. Shiiiit for the economy, shiiiit for the social fabric of the country, all supported by the Tories
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Trade barriers aren't bad necessarily
With enough clout a country or block could in theory raise standards on wages, environment, tax etc and refuse to deal with or negatively tariff countries with low standards.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I could have qualified that one, granted.
Although it certainly applies as written to Brexit (and arguably the majority of cases in which it is applied).
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yeah of course. Knew what you meant and agree with the list
To me at least smart trade barriers are probably one of the few ways more developed nations can encourage ones with poor standards into positive action, just felt like getting that in there
(Not that there's a developed nation not harming the environment)
posted on 26/9/22
This goes to show what a gamble the Cons are taking with this economic policy. It's all very well challenging the orthodoxy, in theory it could well work out, but markets work on orthodoxy, do something different against common wisdom, take risks and investors get the jitters. The selling of the pound we are seeing makes it harder for this economic plan to work out BUT at the same time things have to be given time to work through. None of the measures have actually come into force, nothing spent yet, no extra money in peoples pockets. Markets almost always overact in the short term, it's just a case of whether any confidence returns and things stabilise in the short term and we have the time to see how this plan pans out, or worst case there is a run on the currency and things will spiral downwards.
posted on 26/9/22
What logic is there for it 'work out'. All the serious analysts I have spoken to incl one at IFS says it is doomed from the very start. Which is why Truss has not done any growth forecasts with the OBR.
posted on 26/9/22
comment by Jenius99 (U4918)
posted 10 minutes ago
What logic is there for it 'work out'. All the serious analysts I have spoken to incl one at IFS says it is doomed from the very start. Which is why Truss has not done any growth forecasts with the OBR.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
What serious analysts do you know ffs
posted on 26/9/22
comment by Rosso out here drippin’ in finesse (U17054)
posted 2 hours ago
The Dollar has also strengthened significantly (and unsurprisingly given the state of the global economy), which accounts for a large part of the swing.
But whereas the Euro has lost 16% of its value against the Dollar over the last 12 months, the Pound has lost 22%, and is now heading south *far* more quickly.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Oops, pound now down 25%, not 22%
posted on 26/9/22
comment by Boy From The South (U3979)
posted 10 minutes ago
comment by Jenius99 (U4918)
posted 10 minutes ago
What logic is there for it 'work out'. All the serious analysts I have spoken to incl one at IFS says it is doomed from the very start. Which is why Truss has not done any growth forecasts with the OBR.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
What serious analysts do you know ffs
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Anne Brockmeyer
posted on 26/9/22
And there are people that actually defend this economic policy.
posted on 26/9/22
Mostly journos who did A level economics.
posted on 26/9/22
The pound will likely bounce back at some point (although may well sink lower before that).
No doubt some 5% improvement in a few months time will be spun as a success despite still being way down overall
posted on 26/9/22
Pound will recover after a couple of rate rises. Prediction was 3% by the end of the year. I suspect it will be nearer 4% now. I will wait to hear from Nomura. Monetary hawks all saying I told you so this morning.
posted on 26/9/22
comment by Jenius99 (U4918)
posted 3 minutes ago
Pound will recover after a couple of rate rises. Prediction was 3% by the end of the year. I suspect it will be nearer 4% now. I will wait to hear from Nomura. Monetary hawks all saying I told you so this morning.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Back to our convo the other day:
How can the BoE hope to get close to its targets when the govt is seemingly doing all it can to drive inflation up.
There’s an argument that says that if BoE had acted earlier with stronger rate rises, the govt might have seen an opportunity for even greater stupidity with fiscal policy
posted on 26/9/22
comment by Jenius99 (U4918)
posted 21 minutes ago
What logic is there for it 'work out'. All the serious analysts I have spoken to incl one at IFS says it is doomed from the very start. Which is why Truss has not done any growth forecasts with the OBR.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
If you challenge the orthodoxy, you cannot expect to be in agreement with the majority of analysts. Thats the point.
While the orthodoxy may represent the generally accepted theory, that does not make it the only means of being successful. Other means are simply untested and more risky.
posted on 26/9/22
comment by Jenius99 (U4918)
posted 10 minutes ago
Pound will recover after a couple of rate rises. Prediction was 3% by the end of the year. I suspect it will be nearer 4% now. I will wait to hear from Nomura. Monetary hawks all saying I told you so this morning.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Swedes raised their rates more than Uncle Sam but still the value dropped. It is more complicated than rates.
posted on 26/9/22
comment by Devonshirespur (U6316)
posted 7 minutes ago
comment by Jenius99 (U4918)
posted 21 minutes ago
What logic is there for it 'work out'. All the serious analysts I have spoken to incl one at IFS says it is doomed from the very start. Which is why Truss has not done any growth forecasts with the OBR.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
If you challenge the orthodoxy, you cannot expect to be in agreement with the majority of analysts. Thats the point.
While the orthodoxy may represent the generally accepted theory, that does not make it the only means of being successful. Other means are simply untested and more risky.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I mean a struggling football manager could decide to send his players out with blindfolds on because it's untested.
Doesn't mean every person with an ounce of sense can't call it incredibly stupid and predict a messy, embarrassing failure.
Unfortunately the pieces shiiite that are the Tory party are creating a mess that will harm and in fact kill many people through their awful policy
posted on 26/9/22
comment by Rosso out here drippin’ in finesse (U17054)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by Jenius99 (U4918)
posted 3 minutes ago
Pound will recover after a couple of rate rises. Prediction was 3% by the end of the year. I suspect it will be nearer 4% now. I will wait to hear from Nomura. Monetary hawks all saying I told you so this morning.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Back to our convo the other day:
How can the BoE hope to get close to its targets when the govt is seemingly doing all it can to drive inflation up.
There’s an argument that says that if BoE had acted earlier with stronger rate rises, the govt might have seen an opportunity for even greater stupidity with fiscal policy
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I think the problem is that as many of the main causes of high inflation are out of our control, % rates can only have a limited affect and if you do nothing while the BoE try and get it under control then peoples finances and the economy will suffer greatly
posted on 26/9/22
I mean a struggling football manager could decide to send his players out with blindfolds on because it's untested.
Doesn't mean every person with an ounce of sense can't call it incredibly stupid and predict a messy, embarrassing failure.
———
posted on 26/9/22
comment by Devonshirespur (U6316)
posted 8 minutes ago
comment by Jenius99 (U4918)
posted 21 minutes ago
What logic is there for it 'work out'. All the serious analysts I have spoken to incl one at IFS says it is doomed from the very start. Which is why Truss has not done any growth forecasts with the OBR.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
If you challenge the orthodoxy, you cannot expect to be in agreement with the majority of analysts. Thats the point.
While the orthodoxy may represent the generally accepted theory, that does not make it the only means of being successful. Other means are simply untested and more risky.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I can call any batshite idea a challenge to the orthodoxy. There has to be some logic to their thinking and I have yet to hear one qualified person defend the budget. Most giving rational reasons for why their policy is sheer stupidity is not because its orthodox thinking. Its because its common sense.
posted on 26/9/22
comment by Silver (U6112)
posted 11 minutes ago
comment by Jenius99 (U4918)
posted 10 minutes ago
Pound will recover after a couple of rate rises. Prediction was 3% by the end of the year. I suspect it will be nearer 4% now. I will wait to hear from Nomura. Monetary hawks all saying I told you so this morning.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Swedes raised their rates more than Uncle Sam but still the value dropped. It is more complicated than rates.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Obviously not enough. Maggie raised rates to 17% to calm the markets. You have to overshoot to send a message and unfortunately BofE doveish behaviour has been a cause of this. I doubt Truss would have even won if the BofE had raised early and hard. Sunak was spot on from the very start.
posted on 26/9/22
comment by Devonshirespur (U6316)
posted 44 minutes ago
comment by Rosso out here drippin’ in finesse (U17054)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by Jenius99 (U4918)
posted 3 minutes ago
Pound will recover after a couple of rate rises. Prediction was 3% by the end of the year. I suspect it will be nearer 4% now. I will wait to hear from Nomura. Monetary hawks all saying I told you so this morning.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Back to our convo the other day:
How can the BoE hope to get close to its targets when the govt is seemingly doing all it can to drive inflation up.
There’s an argument that says that if BoE had acted earlier with stronger rate rises, the govt might have seen an opportunity for even greater stupidity with fiscal policy
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I think the problem is that as many of the main causes of high inflation are out of our control, % rates can only have a limited affect and if you do nothing while the BoE try and get it under control then peoples finances and the economy will suffer greatly
----------------------------------------------------------------------
There are a raft of things the govt could do - and equally things it might not have chosen to do - to help curb inflation.
Other European governments have acted, doing everything from capping wholesale gas prices to rent controls and freezes to capping prices on public sector purchasing to controlling transport costs to cutting electricity demand to cancelling tax cuts.
Truss’s govt has instead chosen to fuel the fire.
posted on 26/9/22
comment by Rosso out here drippin’ in finesse (U17054)
posted 38 seconds ago
comment by Devonshirespur (U6316)
posted 44 minutes ago
comment by Rosso out here drippin’ in finesse (U17054)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by Jenius99 (U4918)
posted 3 minutes ago
Pound will recover after a couple of rate rises. Prediction was 3% by the end of the year. I suspect it will be nearer 4% now. I will wait to hear from Nomura. Monetary hawks all saying I told you so this morning.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Back to our convo the other day:
How can the BoE hope to get close to its targets when the govt is seemingly doing all it can to drive inflation up.
There’s an argument that says that if BoE had acted earlier with stronger rate rises, the govt might have seen an opportunity for even greater stupidity with fiscal policy
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I think the problem is that as many of the main causes of high inflation are out of our control, % rates can only have a limited affect and if you do nothing while the BoE try and get it under control then peoples finances and the economy will suffer greatly
----------------------------------------------------------------------
There are a raft of things the govt could do - and equally things it might not have chosen to do - to help curb inflation.
Other European governments have acted, doing everything from capping wholesale gas prices to rent controls and freezes to capping prices on public sector purchasing to controlling transport costs to cutting electricity demand to cancelling tax cuts.
Truss’s govt has instead chosen to fuel the fire.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Although I agree with your general sentiment that conservatives should do more with fiscal policy, in this case I think you underestimate the issue. There really is no other choice than to shadow the fed and in UK case be a little ahead of them with interest rate policy.
The EU obviously have a structural issue where many countries are running high deficits and they cannot do that easily.
Its unfortunate that that Truss wanted to join the idiocy of running a higher deficit with zero expected gain. At least when Corbyn proposed doing this he was actually brining in large assets into public ownership. Which imo would not have brought the growth he wanted but at least it would have had some tangible results.
posted on 26/9/22
comment by Jenius99 (U4918)
posted 1 minute ago
comment by Rosso out here drippin’ in finesse (U17054)
posted 38 seconds ago
comment by Devonshirespur (U6316)
posted 44 minutes ago
comment by Rosso out here drippin’ in finesse (U17054)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by Jenius99 (U4918)
posted 3 minutes ago
Pound will recover after a couple of rate rises. Prediction was 3% by the end of the year. I suspect it will be nearer 4% now. I will wait to hear from Nomura. Monetary hawks all saying I told you so this morning.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Back to our convo the other day:
How can the BoE hope to get close to its targets when the govt is seemingly doing all it can to drive inflation up.
There’s an argument that says that if BoE had acted earlier with stronger rate rises, the govt might have seen an opportunity for even greater stupidity with fiscal policy
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I think the problem is that as many of the main causes of high inflation are out of our control, % rates can only have a limited affect and if you do nothing while the BoE try and get it under control then peoples finances and the economy will suffer greatly
----------------------------------------------------------------------
There are a raft of things the govt could do - and equally things it might not have chosen to do - to help curb inflation.
Other European governments have acted, doing everything from capping wholesale gas prices to rent controls and freezes to capping prices on public sector purchasing to controlling transport costs to cutting electricity demand to cancelling tax cuts.
Truss’s govt has instead chosen to fuel the fire.
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Although I agree with your general sentiment that conservatives should do more with fiscal policy, in this case I think you underestimate the issue. There really is no other choice than to shadow the fed and in UK case be a little ahead of them with interest rate policy.
The EU obviously have a structural issue where many countries are running high deficits and they cannot do that easily.
Its unfortunate that that Truss wanted to join the idiocy of running a higher deficit with zero expected gain. At least when Corbyn proposed doing this he was actually brining in large assets into public ownership. Which imo would not have brought the growth he wanted but at least it would have had some tangible results.
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That IS the issue - BoE is NOT shadowing the Fed but the markets believe it should be being MORE hawkish.
posted on 26/9/22
Wait, the pound dropped because the government announced a 45bn tax reduction. Yet people still complain. Government cannot win, can they.
posted on 26/9/22
comment by Ladmin We Win (U1250)
posted 3 seconds ago
Wait, the pound dropped because the government announced a 45bn tax reduction. Yet people still complain. Government cannot win, can they.
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The general public wasn’t asking for tax cuts.
They were asking for the government to address a cost of living crisis which is busy driving 2 million more Brits into poverty, and threatening the lives of many hundreds of thousands of elderly and vulnerable people across the nation.
posted on 26/9/22
comment by Rosso out here drippin’ in finesse (U17054)
posted 7 minutes ago
comment by Ladmin We Win (U1250)
posted 3 seconds ago
Wait, the pound dropped because the government announced a 45bn tax reduction. Yet people still complain. Government cannot win, can they.
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The general public wasn’t asking for tax cuts.
They were asking for the government to address a cost of living crisis which is busy driving 2 million more Brits into poverty, and threatening the lives of many hundreds of thousands of elderly and vulnerable people across the nation.
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Does taking less tax out of peoples pockets help in "addressing the cost of living crisis" coupled with other measures such as energy price cap and a range of one off payments.
Tax cuts have a different purpose, an attempt to keep the country's economy going at a time when a bad recession is being forecast. Ultimately, everything is going up so people also need more money to spend just to keep affording what they currently do. The Govt can do little about the price of many items in the basket of goods, especially where we are so reliant on imports, but they can take less money from you.
posted on 26/9/22
So have Tory voters finally accepted blame for this catastrophe?
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