Well at least they have something to dig their own graves with.

Hopefully this lack of ammunition encourages Putin to seek some kind of end to the war. If the Russian casualties start stacking up as a result of the shortages then the pressure might start to grow on him.

comment by Elvis (U7425)
posted 11 minutes ago
Hopefully this lack of ammunition encourages Putin to seek some kind of end to the war. If the Russian casualties start stacking up as a result of the shortages then the pressure might start to grow on him.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
This is the only hope, revolt. Apparently the new Kremlin strategy is a long terms siege.

Comment deleted by Article Creator

Comment deleted by Article Creator

Tanks aren’t affective in modern warfare, there’s a reason the west are quick to give them away to Ukraine.

The shovel thing can’t be true either, unless it’s for squadrons isolated from Russian logistics.

This terrible, historical crime of Russia's has clearly exposed the country's internal political, societal, economic and military decay. Putin's regime has cemented its political stability at the price of allowing officials to enrich themselves (a practice which is replicated all the way down the chain of authority) and has promoted hacks who are happy to tell the boss what he wants to hear while persecuting those who tell the truth. As such, the decision to wage war was based on fundamental misconceptions; and it was prosecuted by a military whose potency was drastically eroded both materially by endemic embezzlement of hardware/maintenance budgets and strategically by the pervasive culture of political correctness and wishful thinking. It has been a disastrous mistake for Russia.

That said, I've also seen a huge amount of wishful thinking on the part of friends of Ukraine over the last year, and most of the predictions of short- / medium-term Russian military or economic collapse have totally failed to materialise. Russia has vast natural resources and about 3.5 times the population of Ukraine. It doesn't look militarily capable of winning a war unless it takes the (unfortunately, literally) nuclear option. But as long as there is the political will to keep sending men to die and rockets to kill civilians, it does look plausible that Russia could keep an attritional conflict going for a long while yet.

As for Prigozhin, there are lots of political shenanigans going on between his Wagner outfit and the official military / defence minister Shoigu. The bureaucrats seem to have succeeded in marginalising him (and one of his key allies was assassinated about a month ago in an incident that looked to professional Russia watchers as a demonstrative act from within the mafia state, rather than the work of the Ukrainians) and for a while he has been mouthing off about lack of support from / incompetence on the part of the ministry and the regular army. It's interesting to note that while Russia is a dictatorship with strict controls over society, it's a bit like Hitler's Germany in the way the leader is happy to preside over competing centres of power, let them squabble and struggle for dominance, and wade in only when he feels it's necessary to put someone in their place. A degree of public disagreement / dissent has generally been tolerated - as long as it isn't directed at Putin himself.

Good overview RR, I do think that the immediate impact of sanctions was overestimated, but in the long game the impact will start to hit. It took a year, but it seems that some issues are starting to arise now.

What I find remarkable that the Kremlin has managed to keep the truth from the population for so long.

comment by Busby (U19985)
posted 1 minute ago
Tanks aren’t affective in modern warfare, there’s a reason the west are quick to give them away to Ukraine.

The shovel thing can’t be true either, unless it’s for squadrons isolated from Russian logistics.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

I know next to nothing about military theory. But I've read a lot written by military experts about the war in Ukraine. A couple of things I picked up:

- Tanks are of limited value on their own modern military strategy emphasises having coordinated, complementary forces: a mixture of artillery and more mobile firepower. Particularly when taking back territory where you don't just want to pummel a city from a distance (because there are lots of people living there who you want to liberate, not kill).
- Lots of people were saying Ukraine could really do with tanks at a time when European powers hadn't yet confirmed whether they were sending them.

Thanks for that RR. I try to keep myself informed of what the situation is. And yours was a clear, concise summary.
My hope is that we in the west keep backing Ukraine, and at the same time any area annexed will never be recognised, or traded with.

I think you are wrong about tanks Busby.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/18/dont-believe-the-hype-tanks-are-still-vital-for-ukraine

comment by Cloggy (U1250)
posted 10 minutes ago
Good overview RR, I do think that the immediate impact of sanctions was overestimated, but in the long game the impact will start to hit. It took a year, but it seems that some issues are starting to arise now.

What I find remarkable that the Kremlin has managed to keep the truth from the population for so long.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

I'm interested to hear what arising issues you're referring to. Could you elaborate?

As for public attitudes, that's such a big topic. Some random (and far from complete) observations:

- The Russian population has been battered by propaganda for a very long time, which has instilled certain ideas, but also habits.
- Ideas that have been relentlessly hammered home include the West wanting to bring down Russia (many Russians would be very surprised to find how little Westerners talk and think about Russia, how little it featured in our foreign policy discussions until 2022), the "Ukrainian fascist" trope, Russia as either a distinct, non-European civilization, or the last guardian of true European civilization as the West burns in hell for not hating gay people, etc.
- But I think a more important thing than the content of the ideas it spreads is the way Russian state-controlled discourse has encouraged citizens to be apathetic, to see political engagement as a pointless and potentially risky endeavour.
- One of the things that struck me most when watching vox pop videos of Russians after the invasion was how (aside from a handful of heroically anti-invasion, and a larger minority of convincingly pro-invasion) most people looked genuinely uncomfortable being put on the spot, before eventually mustering a few loyal words that came directly from the language of 'correct' public discourse. I think those responses tell us that there's something like a 'silent majority' of Russians who aren't particularly pro-war, certainly not fanatically ideologically invested in it, probably on some suppressed level know it's wrong. But I don't think that's something to hang any hopes for popular resistance upon. I think Putin's political scientists will recognise the apathy they have carefully cultivated in those responses. Putin never needed their wholehearted support. Passivity is more than enough.

Russia was always going to be a shambles at the beginning. Next stage is throwing bodies at it.

Meanwhile Ukrainian troops are being trained by allies, Russian equipment is being picked up left, right and centre.

Russia loses this either way - either they win in Ukraine and get sanctioned into oblivion or they lose and fall apart more slowly.

They cannot maintain the way the have over recent decades without assistance from western experts & equipment.

The problem for the rest of us is the effects on things like pig iron and of course energy for Europe.

Disinflation has occurred in most of our lifetimes due mostly to two things: the collapse of the Soviet Union leading to masses of production entering the free global market and China dumping an unprecedented amount of Labour workforce into the world. Both of those will disappear in the not so distant future.

Tanks will be useless in the muddy locations, then there is the Crimea canal which is the only source of water for 80% of food production in Crimea which won’t happen. Russia has terrible transport networks, it’s too reliant on rail (which is easily blown up) so Russia won’t be able to sufficiently supply Crimea.

Expect a lot more death, a lot more. Europe & NATO won’t let this finish quickly (with a Russian victory) as Moldova would be next, then Poland.

comment by manusince52 (U9692)
posted 5 minutes ago
I think you are wrong about tanks Busby.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/18/dont-believe-the-hype-tanks-are-still-vital-for-ukraine
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Challengers and leopards would struggle against the Wests ani-tank missiles, perhaps they will fare better against Russia's but the reality is we don't know. The saving grace may be that we don't believe Russia have Antitank missiles that penetrate from above, like Javelins

comment by Red Russian (U4715)
posted 1 hour, 13 minutes ago
This terrible, historical crime of Russia's has clearly exposed the country's internal political, societal, economic and military decay. Putin's regime has cemented its political stability at the price of allowing officials to enrich themselves (a practice which is replicated all the way down the chain of authority) and has promoted hacks who are happy to tell the boss what he wants to hear while persecuting those who tell the truth. As such, the decision to wage war was based on fundamental misconceptions; and it was prosecuted by a military whose potency was drastically eroded both materially by endemic embezzlement of hardware/maintenance budgets and strategically by the pervasive culture of political correctness and wishful thinking. It has been a disastrous mistake for Russia.

That said, I've also seen a huge amount of wishful thinking on the part of friends of Ukraine over the last year, and most of the predictions of short- / medium-term Russian military or economic collapse have totally failed to materialise. Russia has vast natural resources and about 3.5 times the population of Ukraine. It doesn't look militarily capable of winning a war unless it takes the (unfortunately, literally) nuclear option. But as long as there is the political will to keep sending men to die and rockets to kill civilians, it does look plausible that Russia could keep an attritional conflict going for a long while yet.

As for Prigozhin, there are lots of political shenanigans going on between his Wagner outfit and the official military / defence minister Shoigu. The bureaucrats seem to have succeeded in marginalising him (and one of his key allies was assassinated about a month ago in an incident that looked to professional Russia watchers as a demonstrative act from within the mafia state, rather than the work of the Ukrainians) and for a while he has been mouthing off about lack of support from / incompetence on the part of the ministry and the regular army. It's interesting to note that while Russia is a dictatorship with strict controls over society, it's a bit like Hitler's Germany in the way the leader is happy to preside over competing centres of power, let them squabble and struggle for dominance, and wade in only when he feels it's necessary to put someone in their place. A degree of public disagreement / dissent has generally been tolerated - as long as it isn't directed at Putin himself.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Great input RR. It's almost like you know what you are talking about.

Lol I love when people say russians are brainwashed when telegram is one of the most popular apps in russia. Meanwhile American news networks are filled with former fbi, cia, nsa officials

Lol I love when people say russians are brainwashed when telegram is one of the most popular apps in russia. Meanwhile American news networks are filled with former fbi, cia, nsa officials

A sizeable majority of Russians get their information about current affairs from a restricted range of mainstream media sources that are tightly controlled by the state. Social media is also closely monitored, meaning the people who use Telegram, VKontakte, etc. (who skew younger and more urban) are aware of the risks of sharing views and information that is critical of the state without anonymity and precautions. My friends in Russia who know and oppose what their country is doing in Ukraine also talk about the countless people they know who don't know / don't want to hear. The common Russian term for those who are solely plugged in to the state propaganda machine is 'zombified'. By the way, there are many anecdotes from Ukrainians about phoning close relatives living in Russia (even parents!) who refuse to believe their accounts of bombs dropping in their street, because it contradicts what the TV is saying.

None of which is to say that Western media (despite lack of direct state control in most cases) isn't liable to being manipulated and corrupted by the ruling classes and assorted malign actors. The vulnerability of our information systems to disinformation is an existential threat to democracy. The above poster spyro-12's belief that an innocent Russia was forced to invade Ukraine due to foreign wrongdoing is an excellent example of the potency of propaganda in the West.

comment by Red Russian (U4715)
posted 1 hour, 22 minutes ago

comment by Cloggy (U1250)
posted 10 minutes ago
Good overview RR, I do think that the immediate impact of sanctions was overestimated, but in the long game the impact will start to hit. It took a year, but it seems that some issues are starting to arise now.

What I find remarkable that the Kremlin has managed to keep the truth from the population for so long.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

I'm interested to hear what arising issues you're referring to. Could you elaborate?
---------------------------------------------
Issues such as having to sell oil and gas cheaply and eventhough prices were increased their income from this has gone down significantly

Inflation is going up

Very limited amount of countries left to import from

Empty shelves, limited supplies

Limited supplies to fix damaged war machinery.

Etc etc

https://www.nu.nl/298657/video/russische-minister-uitgelachen-na-bewering-dat-oekraine-oorlog-begon.html