Unless you are looking to exit the market
Not good news for the anyone that has climbed on the property ladder in the last 2 years?
Could be £50k under water by the end of the year.
It’s crap news for recent buyers.
Needs to be a massive correction, will be painful for a lot of people but the bubble is dangerous both short and long term.
If / when a proper crash happens very strict rules need to be applied to stop the cash rich simply hoovering up the stock and starting the bubble cycle all over again.
I doubt either party in the UK will do anything but make the situation worse though
Coronials getting screwed again
comment by Two Balls, One Saka (U19684)
posted 1 minute ago
Needs to be a massive correction, will be painful for a lot of people but the bubble is dangerous both short and long term.
If / when a proper crash happens very strict rules need to be applied to stop the cash rich simply hoovering up the stock and starting the bubble cycle all over again.
I doubt either party in the UK will do anything but make the situation worse though
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I do not believe this is a bubble in the traditional sense.
Interesting that Conservative Central Office feel the need to publish this prediction just before the upcoming by elections.
Maybe, if you live in the North.
Which idiot would buy a property with interest rates at over 6%?
comment by Jonathan Moore (U11781)
posted 48 seconds ago
Which idiot would buy a property with interest rates at over 6%?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
People who don't wanna wait 2 years to buy? Still seems better than renting.
comment by Jonathan Moore (U11781)
posted 2 minutes ago
Which idiot would buy a property with interest rates at over 6%?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Cash buyers. I'm not sure a 25% drop is around the corner, cash rich investors will just keep snapping up the vacant properties.
We learnt nothing from 2008.
comment by Radical (U8691)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by Jonathan Moore (U11781)
posted 48 seconds ago
Which idiot would buy a property with interest rates at over 6%?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
People who don't wanna wait 2 years to buy? Still seems better than renting.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Current interest rates are predicted to be the same as they are until late 2026 though
My eldest son has just bought a house, just over a month ago. His plan is to do it up, move back in with us, then rent it out. It shouldn’t hurt him in the ling run, as the plan is to keep it as a pension pot. He’s inly 19, so has time on his side to ensure he doesn’t sell at a negative equity.
My fixed rate ends in March 2025 and if interest rates are still the same my mortgage goes up to over £600 extra a month, it’s a shambles. A lot of people would be stupid to buy right now.
comment by Jonathan Moore (U11781)
posted 48 seconds ago
My fixed rate ends in March 2025 and if interest rates are still the same my mortgage goes up to over £600 extra a month, it’s a shambles. A lot of people would be stupid to buy right now.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That’s not good. A lot will find themselves in the same predicament.
comment by Devonshirespur (U6316)
posted 16 minutes ago
comment by Two Balls, One Saka (U19684)
posted 1 minute ago
Needs to be a massive correction, will be painful for a lot of people but the bubble is dangerous both short and long term.
If / when a proper crash happens very strict rules need to be applied to stop the cash rich simply hoovering up the stock and starting the bubble cycle all over again.
I doubt either party in the UK will do anything but make the situation worse though
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I do not believe this is a bubble in the traditional sense.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Fair enough, I think it's definitely a bubble and it's also a bubble by design. Those with the most control over it have made it that way from bad government policies to land banking by developers and the extremely wealthy.
Sadly while ordinary mortgage holders face potentially crippling costs, those same wealthy people or organisations will hoover up any cut price stock as soon as it becomes available.
It needs massive government intervention to stop it ever happening again which obviously we won't get
comment by 🏴 (U9094)
posted 12 minutes ago
comment by Jonathan Moore (U11781)
posted 48 seconds ago
My fixed rate ends in March 2025 and if interest rates are still the same my mortgage goes up to over £600 extra a month, it’s a shambles. A lot of people would be stupid to buy right now.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That’s not good. A lot will find themselves in the same predicament.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Country is a joke mate
Also the real losers, as always, will be renters and that renting class is about to grow as people lose their homes...
People are living longer and are expected to retire later (at least in the UK) 35/40 year mortgages could become the new norm
comment by RB&W - Whiteside has done it again (U21434)
posted 47 minutes ago
Interesting that Conservative Central Office feel the need to publish this prediction just before the upcoming by elections.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I don't think Tory voting boomers will be best pleased.
I don't think any government would survive house prices being slashed by 25%.
South east England might see a fall of about 10% tops, more likely 5%. Location location location.
The worry is it will be enticing for a whole new generation to become landlords
Not sure it's good news for nearly everybody!
With rates up significantly a huge number of people are facing the prospect of struggling to pay mortgages. Given the low deposit mortgages on the market previously there will be a lot of people either in or very close to negative equity as a result of this fall.
Personally I wouldn't describe the risk of unaffordable mortgages and negative equity whilst in the midst of 10% inflation and persistently high energy bills as "good news for nearly everybody". It's tough times for many people.
comment by Two Balls, One Saka (U19684)
posted 22 minutes ago
comment by Devonshirespur (U6316)
posted 16 minutes ago
comment by Two Balls, One Saka (U19684)
posted 1 minute ago
Needs to be a massive correction, will be painful for a lot of people but the bubble is dangerous both short and long term.
If / when a proper crash happens very strict rules need to be applied to stop the cash rich simply hoovering up the stock and starting the bubble cycle all over again.
I doubt either party in the UK will do anything but make the situation worse though
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I do not believe this is a bubble in the traditional sense.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Fair enough, I think it's definitely a bubble and it's also a bubble by design. Those with the most control over it have made it that way from bad government policies to land banking by developers and the extremely wealthy.
Sadly while ordinary mortgage holders face potentially crippling costs, those same wealthy people or organisations will hoover up any cut price stock as soon as it becomes available.
It needs massive government intervention to stop it ever happening again which obviously we won't get
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Why is it a bubble by design?
Many of the influences have been out of our control and a wider global / european issue.
Compounded by our decision to Brexit, which wasnt a decision made with the housing market in mind.
% rates are high as they are everywhere.
The growth in the market has been fuelled by an undersupply (which has been the case for decades) and low rates which have been necessary given the post-2008 crash and state of the economy, as well as high population growth fuelled by migration.
Measures to underpin the market and house building sector, such as help to buy and other schemes have contributed but only really as more of a rescue package, not an attempt to inflate the market. Many of those have now ceased. increased SDLT has also looked to hit second home owners as have lowered CGT thresholds.
I think a 25% adjustment is very unlikley.
If you take the 2008 crash which was a far more seismic hit on the whole economy then the av. house price went down from about £195K in UK to no lower than 160K. an 18% drop when unemployment was hitting 8.5% and GDP fell by 6%.
No surprise that they announce this 6 months after bringing back "no deposit mortgages"
Can you spell "Bank bale out?"
Very simple and basic supply and demand will still come into this and the fact is we do not have enough homes for enough people in this country where the best paying jobs are. There is not a chance in hell that house prices in London are going to fall 25%, absolutely zero.
Where I live l, in 2008 the house prices declined by 8% - that lasted 6 months before they were back to where they had been previously because those suddenly more affordable places were swamped by demand
Sign in if you want to comment
A glimmer of hope
Page 1 of 4
posted on 17/7/23
Unless you are looking to exit the market
posted on 17/7/23
Not good news for the anyone that has climbed on the property ladder in the last 2 years?
Could be £50k under water by the end of the year.
posted on 17/7/23
It’s crap news for recent buyers.
posted on 17/7/23
Needs to be a massive correction, will be painful for a lot of people but the bubble is dangerous both short and long term.
If / when a proper crash happens very strict rules need to be applied to stop the cash rich simply hoovering up the stock and starting the bubble cycle all over again.
I doubt either party in the UK will do anything but make the situation worse though
posted on 17/7/23
Coronials getting screwed again
posted on 17/7/23
comment by Two Balls, One Saka (U19684)
posted 1 minute ago
Needs to be a massive correction, will be painful for a lot of people but the bubble is dangerous both short and long term.
If / when a proper crash happens very strict rules need to be applied to stop the cash rich simply hoovering up the stock and starting the bubble cycle all over again.
I doubt either party in the UK will do anything but make the situation worse though
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I do not believe this is a bubble in the traditional sense.
posted on 17/7/23
Interesting that Conservative Central Office feel the need to publish this prediction just before the upcoming by elections.
posted on 17/7/23
Maybe, if you live in the North.
posted on 17/7/23
Which idiot would buy a property with interest rates at over 6%?
posted on 17/7/23
comment by Jonathan Moore (U11781)
posted 48 seconds ago
Which idiot would buy a property with interest rates at over 6%?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
People who don't wanna wait 2 years to buy? Still seems better than renting.
posted on 17/7/23
comment by Jonathan Moore (U11781)
posted 2 minutes ago
Which idiot would buy a property with interest rates at over 6%?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Cash buyers. I'm not sure a 25% drop is around the corner, cash rich investors will just keep snapping up the vacant properties.
We learnt nothing from 2008.
posted on 17/7/23
comment by Radical (U8691)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by Jonathan Moore (U11781)
posted 48 seconds ago
Which idiot would buy a property with interest rates at over 6%?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
People who don't wanna wait 2 years to buy? Still seems better than renting.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Current interest rates are predicted to be the same as they are until late 2026 though
posted on 17/7/23
My eldest son has just bought a house, just over a month ago. His plan is to do it up, move back in with us, then rent it out. It shouldn’t hurt him in the ling run, as the plan is to keep it as a pension pot. He’s inly 19, so has time on his side to ensure he doesn’t sell at a negative equity.
posted on 17/7/23
My fixed rate ends in March 2025 and if interest rates are still the same my mortgage goes up to over £600 extra a month, it’s a shambles. A lot of people would be stupid to buy right now.
posted on 17/7/23
comment by Jonathan Moore (U11781)
posted 48 seconds ago
My fixed rate ends in March 2025 and if interest rates are still the same my mortgage goes up to over £600 extra a month, it’s a shambles. A lot of people would be stupid to buy right now.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That’s not good. A lot will find themselves in the same predicament.
posted on 17/7/23
comment by Devonshirespur (U6316)
posted 16 minutes ago
comment by Two Balls, One Saka (U19684)
posted 1 minute ago
Needs to be a massive correction, will be painful for a lot of people but the bubble is dangerous both short and long term.
If / when a proper crash happens very strict rules need to be applied to stop the cash rich simply hoovering up the stock and starting the bubble cycle all over again.
I doubt either party in the UK will do anything but make the situation worse though
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I do not believe this is a bubble in the traditional sense.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Fair enough, I think it's definitely a bubble and it's also a bubble by design. Those with the most control over it have made it that way from bad government policies to land banking by developers and the extremely wealthy.
Sadly while ordinary mortgage holders face potentially crippling costs, those same wealthy people or organisations will hoover up any cut price stock as soon as it becomes available.
It needs massive government intervention to stop it ever happening again which obviously we won't get
posted on 17/7/23
comment by 🏴 (U9094)
posted 12 minutes ago
comment by Jonathan Moore (U11781)
posted 48 seconds ago
My fixed rate ends in March 2025 and if interest rates are still the same my mortgage goes up to over £600 extra a month, it’s a shambles. A lot of people would be stupid to buy right now.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
That’s not good. A lot will find themselves in the same predicament.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Country is a joke mate
posted on 17/7/23
Also the real losers, as always, will be renters and that renting class is about to grow as people lose their homes...
posted on 17/7/23
People are living longer and are expected to retire later (at least in the UK) 35/40 year mortgages could become the new norm
posted on 17/7/23
comment by RB&W - Whiteside has done it again (U21434)
posted 47 minutes ago
Interesting that Conservative Central Office feel the need to publish this prediction just before the upcoming by elections.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I don't think Tory voting boomers will be best pleased.
I don't think any government would survive house prices being slashed by 25%.
posted on 17/7/23
South east England might see a fall of about 10% tops, more likely 5%. Location location location.
The worry is it will be enticing for a whole new generation to become landlords
posted on 17/7/23
Not sure it's good news for nearly everybody!
With rates up significantly a huge number of people are facing the prospect of struggling to pay mortgages. Given the low deposit mortgages on the market previously there will be a lot of people either in or very close to negative equity as a result of this fall.
Personally I wouldn't describe the risk of unaffordable mortgages and negative equity whilst in the midst of 10% inflation and persistently high energy bills as "good news for nearly everybody". It's tough times for many people.
posted on 17/7/23
comment by Two Balls, One Saka (U19684)
posted 22 minutes ago
comment by Devonshirespur (U6316)
posted 16 minutes ago
comment by Two Balls, One Saka (U19684)
posted 1 minute ago
Needs to be a massive correction, will be painful for a lot of people but the bubble is dangerous both short and long term.
If / when a proper crash happens very strict rules need to be applied to stop the cash rich simply hoovering up the stock and starting the bubble cycle all over again.
I doubt either party in the UK will do anything but make the situation worse though
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I do not believe this is a bubble in the traditional sense.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Fair enough, I think it's definitely a bubble and it's also a bubble by design. Those with the most control over it have made it that way from bad government policies to land banking by developers and the extremely wealthy.
Sadly while ordinary mortgage holders face potentially crippling costs, those same wealthy people or organisations will hoover up any cut price stock as soon as it becomes available.
It needs massive government intervention to stop it ever happening again which obviously we won't get
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Why is it a bubble by design?
Many of the influences have been out of our control and a wider global / european issue.
Compounded by our decision to Brexit, which wasnt a decision made with the housing market in mind.
% rates are high as they are everywhere.
The growth in the market has been fuelled by an undersupply (which has been the case for decades) and low rates which have been necessary given the post-2008 crash and state of the economy, as well as high population growth fuelled by migration.
Measures to underpin the market and house building sector, such as help to buy and other schemes have contributed but only really as more of a rescue package, not an attempt to inflate the market. Many of those have now ceased. increased SDLT has also looked to hit second home owners as have lowered CGT thresholds.
I think a 25% adjustment is very unlikley.
If you take the 2008 crash which was a far more seismic hit on the whole economy then the av. house price went down from about £195K in UK to no lower than 160K. an 18% drop when unemployment was hitting 8.5% and GDP fell by 6%.
posted on 17/7/23
No surprise that they announce this 6 months after bringing back "no deposit mortgages"
Can you spell "Bank bale out?"
posted on 17/7/23
Very simple and basic supply and demand will still come into this and the fact is we do not have enough homes for enough people in this country where the best paying jobs are. There is not a chance in hell that house prices in London are going to fall 25%, absolutely zero.
Where I live l, in 2008 the house prices declined by 8% - that lasted 6 months before they were back to where they had been previously because those suddenly more affordable places were swamped by demand
Page 1 of 4