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Time to put down a real marker

Page 2 of 4

posted on 6/11/23

Christ! Talk about ruining things - Daniel Sturridge confirmed guest on MNF tonight.
====================

ffs, sky are taking the proverbial p1ss!

A useless ex-Liverpool player!

posted on 6/11/23

comment by fridgeboy (U1053)
posted 46 minutes ago
Firstly, tonight will be a much sterner test than you think it will, Sandy. Chelsea's league position belies their true worth. They're a much better outfit than results would suggest and they're improving. Of all the sides they've had success against this year, those with a high line that want the ball are those that get exposed by Chelsea. This will be a really, really tough match. A match we've traditionally lost. It won't be 3-0. Not even close. I hate saying it but I've got a feeling the first match of the season we lose, we'll lose to our old manager.

Secondly, regarding a title push, come on! If you look at the facts, we've needed good fortune in at least 3 of our wins. We are playing above ourselves and City are playing beneath their level, yet they're still top. There is a chasm between them and the rest. They've done all that without De Bruyne. Take out Maddison and Bissouma or just one of our centre backs and we're screwed. Given where we were last year, CL qualification is considered "our title" and we should see it as a huge improvement. If there were no dominant team in the league, like the year Leicester won it, I'd say we'd have a chance but no one does all the while Pep is here.

To add weight to the fact that we're not really in a title fight you only have to look at our xG performance. Whether or not you listen to that sort of data, it's important to know that, on average, xG is the best barometer to predict attacking trends and gives a glimpse into where you'd typically sit in the table if your strikers are "on par" as opposed to outperforming. On that table, we're 8th. We're scoring with ruthless efficiency which is a positive and a negative because if the shooting boots aren't on, our position will drop. Eventually things will even out. For what it's worth, Newcastle are top on xG so I don't think they're going anywhere. As it stands, they're gonna be up there.

As far as I'm concerned, we're in the race for a CL place, nothing more.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

How does Chelsea's league position belie their worth. They have made zero improvement on last season. In fact have got worse.

I get you are Pochettino's biggest fanboy, but Pochettino is not going to improve Chelsea.

posted on 6/11/23

comment by He who Dares, waits for Trophies (U15748)
posted 6 minutes ago
comment by The Welsh Xavi (U15412)
posted 4 minutes ago
comment by sandy, golden boot winner fa cup 1901 (U20567)
posted 1 hour, 29 minutes ago
comment by Diamondlights (U20501)
posted 18 minutes ago
Agree with all your points except..... City are a far better team than Spurs... an excellent start (but its only 10 games) doesn't mean anything.

2-1 Spurs.... Hope Udogie is fit for tonight.

COYS
----------------------------------------------------------------------

On paper they may be, but they have already been beaten twice this season. Spurs are yet to lose. No reason Spurs cannot finish above them at all, especially as they are the only side that regularly take at least three points off City every season.

Spurs should not be fearing any team right now.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Being unbeaten is overrated when you're chasing 90+ points. City always lose games, it's their lack of draws that allows them to win the title.

In 18/19 we lost just 1 game and still missed out.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

It isn't overrated. Being undefeated shows no one has defeated you????
----------------------------------------------------------------------
As an achievement being undefeated is fantastic obviously, in terms of points needed to win the title it's overrated which is my point.

Arsenal's 04 season they won 26 and drew 12 for 90 points. City (and Liverpool) have never gone unbeaten but have smashed the 90 point barrier multiple times.

posted on 6/11/23

comment by fridgeboy (U1053)
posted 37 minutes ago
comment by Chronic (U3423)
posted 3 seconds ago
comment by fridgeboy (U1053)
posted 10 minutes ago
Firstly, tonight will be a much sterner test than you think it will, Sandy. Chelsea's league position belies their true worth. They're a much better outfit than results would suggest and they're improving. Of all the sides they've had success against this year, those with a high line that want the ball are those that get exposed by Chelsea. This will be a really, really tough match. A match we've traditionally lost. It won't be 3-0. Not even close. I hate saying it but I've got a feeling the first match of the season we lose, we'll lose to our old manager.

Secondly, regarding a title push, come on! If you look at the facts, we've needed good fortune in at least 3 of our wins. We are playing above ourselves and City are playing beneath their level, yet they're still top. There is a chasm between them and the rest. They've done all that without De Bruyne. Take out Maddison and Bissouma or just one of our centre backs and we're screwed. Given where we were last year, CL qualification is considered "our title" and we should see it as a huge improvement. If there were no dominant team in the league, like the year Leicester won it, I'd say we'd have a chance but no one does all the while Pep is here.

To add weight to the fact that we're not really in a title fight you only have to look at our xG performance. Whether or not you listen to that sort of data, it's important to know that, on average, xG is the best barometer to predict attacking trends and gives a glimpse into where you'd typically sit in the table if your strikers are "on par" as opposed to outperforming. On that table, we're 8th. We're scoring with ruthless efficiency which is a positive and a negative because if the shooting boots aren't on, our position will drop. Eventually things will even out. For what it's worth, Newcastle are top on xG so I don't think they're going anywhere. As it stands, they're gonna be up there.

As far as I'm concerned, we're in the race for a CL place, nothing more.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I agree with you that tonight is tougher than it seems, but I disagree with you on your last statement. We are bang in this title race due to the one game a week thing which will pay dividends as the season develops.

We need to do some serious squad improvement in January though
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yes, but even with one game a week, we're out-performing xG more than anyone in the league. History tells us that this evens out eventually. Right now it appears we're in a title race but the data suggests we aren't. We can't ignore these facts just because it doesn't reflect well on us. I think Ange is perfectly aware of this and I doubt he expects any kind of challenge but I don't think he cares. We're on a few months in and this was supposed to be a transitional year. To be sitting where we are is mind-boggling.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Spurs are in a title race because they have won 80 per cent of their matches, and drawn the other 20 per cent.

The XG nonsense is just something invented by Sky, and carry's zero credibility in the real world. XG does win, lose, draw or give any team points in the Prem.

posted on 6/11/23

I don't think beating Chelsea this season puts down much of a marker. I keep watching them thinking they've got to improve. And then they don't.

posted on 6/11/23

comment by fridgeboy (U1053)
posted 20 minutes ago
Christ! Talk about ruining things - Daniel Sturridge confirmed guest on MNF tonight. Why? It’s completely illogical to get someone like him on in this game. At least go for someone that’s played or managed both clubs, like Hoddle. I hate Sturridge with a passion. Cocky little runt. I can’t even listen to his voice, let alone be subjected to four hours of him.

Sky always get this sort of thing wrong. They bring in the younger, flashy arrogant types without considering whether they’re likeable or not. The difference between Richards and Sturridge is that Richards has humility. Sturridge is just a cocky, arrogant little sod that has no place on a game like tonight. Fecks sake!
----------------------------------------------------------------------



I will be watching the match Fridge. I don't listen to the pundits. Usually have the sound down. They all spout total garbage.

posted on 6/11/23

comment by Kamikaze Blue (U7450)
posted 6 minutes ago
I don't think beating Chelsea this season puts down much of a marker. I keep watching them thinking they've got to improve. And then they don't.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Beating Chelsea puts Spurs back top again. That's what I meant by putting down a marker.

I agree Chelsea are a very poor team.

posted on 6/11/23

Spurs should spank Chelsea.

They are rotten. Spurs are invincible*

*so far

Richarlison hat-trick.

posted on 6/11/23

comment by sandy, golden boot winner fa cup 1901 (U20567)
posted 41 minutes ago
comment by fridgeboy (U1053)
posted 37 minutes ago
comment by Chronic (U3423)
posted 3 seconds ago
comment by fridgeboy (U1053)
posted 10 minutes ago
Firstly, tonight will be a much sterner test than you think it will, Sandy. Chelsea's league position belies their true worth. They're a much better outfit than results would suggest and they're improving. Of all the sides they've had success against this year, those with a high line that want the ball are those that get exposed by Chelsea. This will be a really, really tough match. A match we've traditionally lost. It won't be 3-0. Not even close. I hate saying it but I've got a feeling the first match of the season we lose, we'll lose to our old manager.

Secondly, regarding a title push, come on! If you look at the facts, we've needed good fortune in at least 3 of our wins. We are playing above ourselves and City are playing beneath their level, yet they're still top. There is a chasm between them and the rest. They've done all that without De Bruyne. Take out Maddison and Bissouma or just one of our centre backs and we're screwed. Given where we were last year, CL qualification is considered "our title" and we should see it as a huge improvement. If there were no dominant team in the league, like the year Leicester won it, I'd say we'd have a chance but no one does all the while Pep is here.

To add weight to the fact that we're not really in a title fight you only have to look at our xG performance. Whether or not you listen to that sort of data, it's important to know that, on average, xG is the best barometer to predict attacking trends and gives a glimpse into where you'd typically sit in the table if your strikers are "on par" as opposed to outperforming. On that table, we're 8th. We're scoring with ruthless efficiency which is a positive and a negative because if the shooting boots aren't on, our position will drop. Eventually things will even out. For what it's worth, Newcastle are top on xG so I don't think they're going anywhere. As it stands, they're gonna be up there.

As far as I'm concerned, we're in the race for a CL place, nothing more.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I agree with you that tonight is tougher than it seems, but I disagree with you on your last statement. We are bang in this title race due to the one game a week thing which will pay dividends as the season develops.

We need to do some serious squad improvement in January though
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yes, but even with one game a week, we're out-performing xG more than anyone in the league. History tells us that this evens out eventually. Right now it appears we're in a title race but the data suggests we aren't. We can't ignore these facts just because it doesn't reflect well on us. I think Ange is perfectly aware of this and I doubt he expects any kind of challenge but I don't think he cares. We're on a few months in and this was supposed to be a transitional year. To be sitting where we are is mind-boggling.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Spurs are in a title race because they have won 80 per cent of their matches, and drawn the other 20 per cent.

The XG nonsense is just something invented by Sky, and carry's zero credibility in the real world. XG does win, lose, draw or give any team points in the Prem.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
This just sounds like the usual ignorance lazy pundits. It's straight out of the "possession doesn't mean a thing" or "it's the score at the top that counts" hall of poor punditry fame. They always wheel it out after a team has dominated a game but lost to Woy's Palace playing counter attacking football. Sure, it can happen, but the facts remain that those that play front-foot football, who dominate the ball and have the highest xG, are the ones that win the trophies, particularly in the modern game.

I can't stand it when people just ignore the data and focus on the wins. Remember Sandy, this time last year, or maybe a bit earlier, you were waxing lyrical about us and predicting a title charge. Those of us focused on the performances and the deeper detail saw that it was a false dawn. You have a tendency to focus only on the results and never really have any interest in the way we play or the data that might give a little insight as to whether we're here to stay or just riding our luck. It's important and you never, ever give it any air-time at all. In fact you were so focused on the result only that it's no surprise that you didn't really take issue with Mourinho or Conte in the same way myself and others did. To me, I felt just as angry at the performances as I did the results, sometimes more so. The negative football didn't seem to bother you which explains why the only thing you care about are results. My argument to that is that performances breed results. Get those right and the results will come. That's why the data is so important and shouldn't be ignored. They give us a glimpse at the road we're travelling on and whether the philosophy is working. I think it's crazy to dismiss it.

posted on 6/11/23

So any finishing above spurs wins the title , is that what your saying Sandy 😂

posted on 6/11/23

comment by sandy, golden boot winner fa cup 1901 (U20567)
posted 21 minutes ago
comment by fridgeboy (U1053)
posted 37 minutes ago
comment by Chronic (U3423)
posted 3 seconds ago
comment by fridgeboy (U1053)
posted 10 minutes ago
Firstly, tonight will be a much sterner test than you think it will, Sandy. Chelsea's league position belies their true worth. They're a much better outfit than results would suggest and they're improving. Of all the sides they've had success against this year, those with a high line that want the ball are those that get exposed by Chelsea. This will be a really, really tough match. A match we've traditionally lost. It won't be 3-0. Not even close. I hate saying it but I've got a feeling the first match of the season we lose, we'll lose to our old manager.

Secondly, regarding a title push, come on! If you look at the facts, we've needed good fortune in at least 3 of our wins. We are playing above ourselves and City are playing beneath their level, yet they're still top. There is a chasm between them and the rest. They've done all that without De Bruyne. Take out Maddison and Bissouma or just one of our centre backs and we're screwed. Given where we were last year, CL qualification is considered "our title" and we should see it as a huge improvement. If there were no dominant team in the league, like the year Leicester won it, I'd say we'd have a chance but no one does all the while Pep is here.

To add weight to the fact that we're not really in a title fight you only have to look at our xG performance. Whether or not you listen to that sort of data, it's important to know that, on average, xG is the best barometer to predict attacking trends and gives a glimpse into where you'd typically sit in the table if your strikers are "on par" as opposed to outperforming. On that table, we're 8th. We're scoring with ruthless efficiency which is a positive and a negative because if the shooting boots aren't on, our position will drop. Eventually things will even out. For what it's worth, Newcastle are top on xG so I don't think they're going anywhere. As it stands, they're gonna be up there.

As far as I'm concerned, we're in the race for a CL place, nothing more.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I agree with you that tonight is tougher than it seems, but I disagree with you on your last statement. We are bang in this title race due to the one game a week thing which will pay dividends as the season develops.

We need to do some serious squad improvement in January though
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yes, but even with one game a week, we're out-performing xG more than anyone in the league. History tells us that this evens out eventually. Right now it appears we're in a title race but the data suggests we aren't. We can't ignore these facts just because it doesn't reflect well on us. I think Ange is perfectly aware of this and I doubt he expects any kind of challenge but I don't think he cares. We're on a few months in and this was supposed to be a transitional year. To be sitting where we are is mind-boggling.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Spurs are in a title race because they have won 80 per cent of their matches, and drawn the other 20 per cent.

The XG nonsense is just something invented by Sky, and carry's zero credibility in the real world. XG does win, lose, draw or give any team points in the Prem.
----------------------------------------------------------------------


I am with you on this one Sandy.

Every team benefits from luck and bad luck

High XG and low conversion rate means you have crap strikers, doesnt make you unlucky or deserve anything more...and that's what Chelsea are, a decent team up to the final third.

Even still their average XG is still only 1.55, which is lower than Spurs (2.02) which should see them score 16 goals this season and they have 13, so even using this flawed XG analysis, its not as if they will have done much better even if they matched their XG.

posted on 6/11/23

comment by Devonshirespur (U6316)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by sandy, golden boot winner fa cup 1901 (U20567)
posted 21 minutes ago
comment by fridgeboy (U1053)
posted 37 minutes ago
comment by Chronic (U3423)
posted 3 seconds ago
comment by fridgeboy (U1053)
posted 10 minutes ago
Firstly, tonight will be a much sterner test than you think it will, Sandy. Chelsea's league position belies their true worth. They're a much better outfit than results would suggest and they're improving. Of all the sides they've had success against this year, those with a high line that want the ball are those that get exposed by Chelsea. This will be a really, really tough match. A match we've traditionally lost. It won't be 3-0. Not even close. I hate saying it but I've got a feeling the first match of the season we lose, we'll lose to our old manager.

Secondly, regarding a title push, come on! If you look at the facts, we've needed good fortune in at least 3 of our wins. We are playing above ourselves and City are playing beneath their level, yet they're still top. There is a chasm between them and the rest. They've done all that without De Bruyne. Take out Maddison and Bissouma or just one of our centre backs and we're screwed. Given where we were last year, CL qualification is considered "our title" and we should see it as a huge improvement. If there were no dominant team in the league, like the year Leicester won it, I'd say we'd have a chance but no one does all the while Pep is here.

To add weight to the fact that we're not really in a title fight you only have to look at our xG performance. Whether or not you listen to that sort of data, it's important to know that, on average, xG is the best barometer to predict attacking trends and gives a glimpse into where you'd typically sit in the table if your strikers are "on par" as opposed to outperforming. On that table, we're 8th. We're scoring with ruthless efficiency which is a positive and a negative because if the shooting boots aren't on, our position will drop. Eventually things will even out. For what it's worth, Newcastle are top on xG so I don't think they're going anywhere. As it stands, they're gonna be up there.

As far as I'm concerned, we're in the race for a CL place, nothing more.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I agree with you that tonight is tougher than it seems, but I disagree with you on your last statement. We are bang in this title race due to the one game a week thing which will pay dividends as the season develops.

We need to do some serious squad improvement in January though
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yes, but even with one game a week, we're out-performing xG more than anyone in the league. History tells us that this evens out eventually. Right now it appears we're in a title race but the data suggests we aren't. We can't ignore these facts just because it doesn't reflect well on us. I think Ange is perfectly aware of this and I doubt he expects any kind of challenge but I don't think he cares. We're on a few months in and this was supposed to be a transitional year. To be sitting where we are is mind-boggling.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Spurs are in a title race because they have won 80 per cent of their matches, and drawn the other 20 per cent.

The XG nonsense is just something invented by Sky, and carry's zero credibility in the real world. XG does win, lose, draw or give any team points in the Prem.
----------------------------------------------------------------------


I am with you on this one Sandy.

Every team benefits from luck and bad luck

High XG and low conversion rate means you have crap strikers, doesnt make you unlucky or deserve anything more...and that's what Chelsea are, a decent team up to the final third.

Even still their average XG is still only 1.55, which is lower than Spurs (2.02) which should see them score 16 goals this season and they have 13, so even using this flawed XG analysis, its not as if they will have done much better even if they matched their XG.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
No, but what it does tell you is that we're getting the absolute maximum out of the chances we're getting which is unsustainable long term. Chelsea have some room for improvement because the chances are there but the finishing isn't yet. Long term it means Chelsea will rise and we'll drop a bit. It will all average out in the end. It always does.

posted on 6/11/23

comment by fridgeboy (U1053)
posted 18 minutes ago
comment by Devonshirespur (U6316)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by sandy, golden boot winner fa cup 1901 (U20567)
posted 21 minutes ago
comment by fridgeboy (U1053)
posted 37 minutes ago
comment by Chronic (U3423)
posted 3 seconds ago
comment by fridgeboy (U1053)
posted 10 minutes ago
Firstly, tonight will be a much sterner test than you think it will, Sandy. Chelsea's league position belies their true worth. They're a much better outfit than results would suggest and they're improving. Of all the sides they've had success against this year, those with a high line that want the ball are those that get exposed by Chelsea. This will be a really, really tough match. A match we've traditionally lost. It won't be 3-0. Not even close. I hate saying it but I've got a feeling the first match of the season we lose, we'll lose to our old manager.

Secondly, regarding a title push, come on! If you look at the facts, we've needed good fortune in at least 3 of our wins. We are playing above ourselves and City are playing beneath their level, yet they're still top. There is a chasm between them and the rest. They've done all that without De Bruyne. Take out Maddison and Bissouma or just one of our centre backs and we're screwed. Given where we were last year, CL qualification is considered "our title" and we should see it as a huge improvement. If there were no dominant team in the league, like the year Leicester won it, I'd say we'd have a chance but no one does all the while Pep is here.

To add weight to the fact that we're not really in a title fight you only have to look at our xG performance. Whether or not you listen to that sort of data, it's important to know that, on average, xG is the best barometer to predict attacking trends and gives a glimpse into where you'd typically sit in the table if your strikers are "on par" as opposed to outperforming. On that table, we're 8th. We're scoring with ruthless efficiency which is a positive and a negative because if the shooting boots aren't on, our position will drop. Eventually things will even out. For what it's worth, Newcastle are top on xG so I don't think they're going anywhere. As it stands, they're gonna be up there.

As far as I'm concerned, we're in the race for a CL place, nothing more.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I agree with you that tonight is tougher than it seems, but I disagree with you on your last statement. We are bang in this title race due to the one game a week thing which will pay dividends as the season develops.

We need to do some serious squad improvement in January though
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yes, but even with one game a week, we're out-performing xG more than anyone in the league. History tells us that this evens out eventually. Right now it appears we're in a title race but the data suggests we aren't. We can't ignore these facts just because it doesn't reflect well on us. I think Ange is perfectly aware of this and I doubt he expects any kind of challenge but I don't think he cares. We're on a few months in and this was supposed to be a transitional year. To be sitting where we are is mind-boggling.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Spurs are in a title race because they have won 80 per cent of their matches, and drawn the other 20 per cent.

The XG nonsense is just something invented by Sky, and carry's zero credibility in the real world. XG does win, lose, draw or give any team points in the Prem.
----------------------------------------------------------------------


I am with you on this one Sandy.

Every team benefits from luck and bad luck

High XG and low conversion rate means you have crap strikers, doesnt make you unlucky or deserve anything more...and that's what Chelsea are, a decent team up to the final third.

Even still their average XG is still only 1.55, which is lower than Spurs (2.02) which should see them score 16 goals this season and they have 13, so even using this flawed XG analysis, its not as if they will have done much better even if they matched their XG.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
No, but what it does tell you is that we're getting the absolute maximum out of the chances we're getting which is unsustainable long term. Chelsea have some room for improvement because the chances are there but the finishing isn't yet. Long term it means Chelsea will rise and we'll drop a bit. It will all average out in the end. It always does.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Er no it doesn't. Man City were relegated one season despite scoring the most goals.

It's utter tosh.

What counts is points, not nonsense XG, or whatever it is.

posted on 6/11/23

comment by sandy, golden boot winner fa cup 1901 (U20567)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by fridgeboy (U1053)
posted 18 minutes ago
comment by Devonshirespur (U6316)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by sandy, golden boot winner fa cup 1901 (U20567)
posted 21 minutes ago
comment by fridgeboy (U1053)
posted 37 minutes ago
comment by Chronic (U3423)
posted 3 seconds ago
comment by fridgeboy (U1053)
posted 10 minutes ago
Firstly, tonight will be a much sterner test than you think it will, Sandy. Chelsea's league position belies their true worth. They're a much better outfit than results would suggest and they're improving. Of all the sides they've had success against this year, those with a high line that want the ball are those that get exposed by Chelsea. This will be a really, really tough match. A match we've traditionally lost. It won't be 3-0. Not even close. I hate saying it but I've got a feeling the first match of the season we lose, we'll lose to our old manager.

Secondly, regarding a title push, come on! If you look at the facts, we've needed good fortune in at least 3 of our wins. We are playing above ourselves and City are playing beneath their level, yet they're still top. There is a chasm between them and the rest. They've done all that without De Bruyne. Take out Maddison and Bissouma or just one of our centre backs and we're screwed. Given where we were last year, CL qualification is considered "our title" and we should see it as a huge improvement. If there were no dominant team in the league, like the year Leicester won it, I'd say we'd have a chance but no one does all the while Pep is here.

To add weight to the fact that we're not really in a title fight you only have to look at our xG performance. Whether or not you listen to that sort of data, it's important to know that, on average, xG is the best barometer to predict attacking trends and gives a glimpse into where you'd typically sit in the table if your strikers are "on par" as opposed to outperforming. On that table, we're 8th. We're scoring with ruthless efficiency which is a positive and a negative because if the shooting boots aren't on, our position will drop. Eventually things will even out. For what it's worth, Newcastle are top on xG so I don't think they're going anywhere. As it stands, they're gonna be up there.

As far as I'm concerned, we're in the race for a CL place, nothing more.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I agree with you that tonight is tougher than it seems, but I disagree with you on your last statement. We are bang in this title race due to the one game a week thing which will pay dividends as the season develops.

We need to do some serious squad improvement in January though
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yes, but even with one game a week, we're out-performing xG more than anyone in the league. History tells us that this evens out eventually. Right now it appears we're in a title race but the data suggests we aren't. We can't ignore these facts just because it doesn't reflect well on us. I think Ange is perfectly aware of this and I doubt he expects any kind of challenge but I don't think he cares. We're on a few months in and this was supposed to be a transitional year. To be sitting where we are is mind-boggling.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Spurs are in a title race because they have won 80 per cent of their matches, and drawn the other 20 per cent.

The XG nonsense is just something invented by Sky, and carry's zero credibility in the real world. XG does win, lose, draw or give any team points in the Prem.
----------------------------------------------------------------------


I am with you on this one Sandy.

Every team benefits from luck and bad luck

High XG and low conversion rate means you have crap strikers, doesnt make you unlucky or deserve anything more...and that's what Chelsea are, a decent team up to the final third.

Even still their average XG is still only 1.55, which is lower than Spurs (2.02) which should see them score 16 goals this season and they have 13, so even using this flawed XG analysis, its not as if they will have done much better even if they matched their XG.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
No, but what it does tell you is that we're getting the absolute maximum out of the chances we're getting which is unsustainable long term. Chelsea have some room for improvement because the chances are there but the finishing isn't yet. Long term it means Chelsea will rise and we'll drop a bit. It will all average out in the end. It always does.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Er no it doesn't. Man City were relegated one season despite scoring the most goals.

It's utter tosh.

What counts is points, not nonsense XG, or whatever it is.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
It's like listening to a lazy pundit that's a relic from an era everyone forgot.

Okay, I accept xG isn't as important as goals scored / conceded but I guarantee you, that by the end of the year the teams with the highest xG will be in the top four. You obviously have to caveat that with ensuring you have a good defence because scoring goals means nothing if you can't defend at the other end but overall, these little nuggets of data are important. You can ignore it all you want Sandy but it's informative, particularly from a recruitment point of view. A high xG and a low scoring rate suggests you need a finisher and are probably well stocked in midfield. You ignorance shows your age to be honest.

posted on 6/11/23

Oh and Sheffield Wednesday won a title one year by scoring just 48 goals. In the same season and division Liverpool scored 49 goals and were relegated.

XG is total bollox.

posted on 6/11/23

xG is often used wrong but Fridge is bang on about underlying performances.

It's possible Spurs keep up overperforming their xG all season but it's typically a matter of time before a team regresses to the norm.

Of course Spurs could mitigate that by getting better as the season goes on.

posted on 6/11/23

I'm not a big fan of just focusing on stats but I accept that XG seems to be the in vogue stat that a lot of people give great credence to.

My eyes tell me that Spurs have started extremely well under Ange and my head tells me that these levels of performances (and results) have come a lot sooner than any of us could have expected. It also tells me that there is room for improvement and that only playing one game a week (pre FA cup) gives Ange even more time to improve individuals and team performances. I'm not sure if that factored into the current XG , but surely people have to be flexible enough to also take into account improvements and not just assume that XG is set in stone?

posted on 6/11/23

comment by sandy, golden boot winner fa cup 1901 (U20567)
posted 25 minutes ago
Oh and Sheffield Wednesday won a title one year by scoring just 48 goals. In the same season and division Liverpool scored 49 goals and were relegated.

XG is total bollox.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
yes - it is not a benchmark for success, unless scoring goals only is the aim. How about avoid conceding goals?

posted on 6/11/23

comment by The Welsh Xavi (U15412)
posted 8 minutes ago
xG is often used wrong but Fridge is bang on about underlying performances.

It's possible Spurs keep up overperforming their xG all season but it's typically a matter of time before a team regresses to the norm.

Of course Spurs could mitigate that by getting better as the season goes on.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

XG speaks of the quality of chance, not the quality of the striker.

Better strikers take tougher chances more often.

The better teams with the better finishers will frequently exceed their XG.

We have seen the likes of Nunez and Richarlison miss sitters that the likes of Kane and Son don't miss.

When you watch Spurs, many of the chances we have created have been worked goals where the finish is relatively simple after more intricate build up play. We've had a couple of belters from outside the box, a couple OGs and a couple from corners, but other than that most have been tap ins to finish off a passing move or one on ones.

I personally think we are creating very good chances, not that we're getting lucky with a high conversion rate.

Son has 8 gaols but an XG of about 4....so which of his 8 goals were tough chances that he would not normally take?

posted on 6/11/23

comment by kloppites (U13373)
posted 2 hours, 8 minutes ago
So any finishing above spurs wins the title , is that what your saying Sandy 😂
----------------------------------------------------------------------

No team will finish above Spurs.

posted on 6/11/23

comment by Devonshirespur (U6316)
posted 1 hour, 30 minutes ago
comment by sandy, golden boot winner fa cup 1901 (U20567)
posted 21 minutes ago
comment by fridgeboy (U1053)
posted 37 minutes ago
comment by Chronic (U3423)
posted 3 seconds ago
comment by fridgeboy (U1053)
posted 10 minutes ago
Firstly, tonight will be a much sterner test than you think it will, Sandy. Chelsea's league position belies their true worth. They're a much better outfit than results would suggest and they're improving. Of all the sides they've had success against this year, those with a high line that want the ball are those that get exposed by Chelsea. This will be a really, really tough match. A match we've traditionally lost. It won't be 3-0. Not even close. I hate saying it but I've got a feeling the first match of the season we lose, we'll lose to our old manager.

Secondly, regarding a title push, come on! If you look at the facts, we've needed good fortune in at least 3 of our wins. We are playing above ourselves and City are playing beneath their level, yet they're still top. There is a chasm between them and the rest. They've done all that without De Bruyne. Take out Maddison and Bissouma or just one of our centre backs and we're screwed. Given where we were last year, CL qualification is considered "our title" and we should see it as a huge improvement. If there were no dominant team in the league, like the year Leicester won it, I'd say we'd have a chance but no one does all the while Pep is here.

To add weight to the fact that we're not really in a title fight you only have to look at our xG performance. Whether or not you listen to that sort of data, it's important to know that, on average, xG is the best barometer to predict attacking trends and gives a glimpse into where you'd typically sit in the table if your strikers are "on par" as opposed to outperforming. On that table, we're 8th. We're scoring with ruthless efficiency which is a positive and a negative because if the shooting boots aren't on, our position will drop. Eventually things will even out. For what it's worth, Newcastle are top on xG so I don't think they're going anywhere. As it stands, they're gonna be up there.

As far as I'm concerned, we're in the race for a CL place, nothing more.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I agree with you that tonight is tougher than it seems, but I disagree with you on your last statement. We are bang in this title race due to the one game a week thing which will pay dividends as the season develops.

We need to do some serious squad improvement in January though
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yes, but even with one game a week, we're out-performing xG more than anyone in the league. History tells us that this evens out eventually. Right now it appears we're in a title race but the data suggests we aren't. We can't ignore these facts just because it doesn't reflect well on us. I think Ange is perfectly aware of this and I doubt he expects any kind of challenge but I don't think he cares. We're on a few months in and this was supposed to be a transitional year. To be sitting where we are is mind-boggling.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Spurs are in a title race because they have won 80 per cent of their matches, and drawn the other 20 per cent.

The XG nonsense is just something invented by Sky, and carry's zero credibility in the real world. XG does win, lose, draw or give any team points in the Prem.
----------------------------------------------------------------------


I am with you on this one Sandy.

Every team benefits from luck and bad luck

High XG and low conversion rate means you have crap strikers, doesnt make you unlucky or deserve anything more...and that's what Chelsea are, a decent team up to the final third.

Even still their average XG is still only 1.55, which is lower than Spurs (2.02) which should see them score 16 goals this season and they have 13, so even using this flawed XG analysis, its not as if they will have done much better even if they matched their XG.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Agree bad luck and luck evens out over a season. <ok->

posted on 6/11/23

comment by fridgeboy (U1053)
posted 46 minutes ago
comment by sandy, golden boot winner fa cup 1901 (U20567)
posted 2 minutes ago
comment by fridgeboy (U1053)
posted 18 minutes ago
comment by Devonshirespur (U6316)
posted 9 minutes ago
comment by sandy, golden boot winner fa cup 1901 (U20567)
posted 21 minutes ago
comment by fridgeboy (U1053)
posted 37 minutes ago
comment by Chronic (U3423)
posted 3 seconds ago
comment by fridgeboy (U1053)
posted 10 minutes ago
Firstly, tonight will be a much sterner test than you think it will, Sandy. Chelsea's league position belies their true worth. They're a much better outfit than results would suggest and they're improving. Of all the sides they've had success against this year, those with a high line that want the ball are those that get exposed by Chelsea. This will be a really, really tough match. A match we've traditionally lost. It won't be 3-0. Not even close. I hate saying it but I've got a feeling the first match of the season we lose, we'll lose to our old manager.

Secondly, regarding a title push, come on! If you look at the facts, we've needed good fortune in at least 3 of our wins. We are playing above ourselves and City are playing beneath their level, yet they're still top. There is a chasm between them and the rest. They've done all that without De Bruyne. Take out Maddison and Bissouma or just one of our centre backs and we're screwed. Given where we were last year, CL qualification is considered "our title" and we should see it as a huge improvement. If there were no dominant team in the league, like the year Leicester won it, I'd say we'd have a chance but no one does all the while Pep is here.

To add weight to the fact that we're not really in a title fight you only have to look at our xG performance. Whether or not you listen to that sort of data, it's important to know that, on average, xG is the best barometer to predict attacking trends and gives a glimpse into where you'd typically sit in the table if your strikers are "on par" as opposed to outperforming. On that table, we're 8th. We're scoring with ruthless efficiency which is a positive and a negative because if the shooting boots aren't on, our position will drop. Eventually things will even out. For what it's worth, Newcastle are top on xG so I don't think they're going anywhere. As it stands, they're gonna be up there.

As far as I'm concerned, we're in the race for a CL place, nothing more.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I agree with you that tonight is tougher than it seems, but I disagree with you on your last statement. We are bang in this title race due to the one game a week thing which will pay dividends as the season develops.

We need to do some serious squad improvement in January though
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Yes, but even with one game a week, we're out-performing xG more than anyone in the league. History tells us that this evens out eventually. Right now it appears we're in a title race but the data suggests we aren't. We can't ignore these facts just because it doesn't reflect well on us. I think Ange is perfectly aware of this and I doubt he expects any kind of challenge but I don't think he cares. We're on a few months in and this was supposed to be a transitional year. To be sitting where we are is mind-boggling.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Spurs are in a title race because they have won 80 per cent of their matches, and drawn the other 20 per cent.

The XG nonsense is just something invented by Sky, and carry's zero credibility in the real world. XG does win, lose, draw or give any team points in the Prem.
----------------------------------------------------------------------


I am with you on this one Sandy.

Every team benefits from luck and bad luck

High XG and low conversion rate means you have crap strikers, doesnt make you unlucky or deserve anything more...and that's what Chelsea are, a decent team up to the final third.

Even still their average XG is still only 1.55, which is lower than Spurs (2.02) which should see them score 16 goals this season and they have 13, so even using this flawed XG analysis, its not as if they will have done much better even if they matched their XG.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
No, but what it does tell you is that we're getting the absolute maximum out of the chances we're getting which is unsustainable long term. Chelsea have some room for improvement because the chances are there but the finishing isn't yet. Long term it means Chelsea will rise and we'll drop a bit. It will all average out in the end. It always does.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Er no it doesn't. Man City were relegated one season despite scoring the most goals.

It's utter tosh.

What counts is points, not nonsense XG, or whatever it is.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
It's like listening to a lazy pundit that's a relic from an era everyone forgot.

Okay, I accept xG isn't as important as goals scored / conceded but I guarantee you, that by the end of the year the teams with the highest xG will be in the top four. You obviously have to caveat that with ensuring you have a good defence because scoring goals means nothing if you can't defend at the other end but overall, these little nuggets of data are important. You can ignore it all you want Sandy but it's informative, particularly from a recruitment point of view. A high xG and a low scoring rate suggests you need a finisher and are probably well stocked in midfield. You ignorance shows your age to be honest.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

It does not matter what era. The point being you are more or less implying that the team that scores the most goals wins the league. There have been multiple title winners over every era in football history that have not been top scorers.

posted on 6/11/23

comment by The Welsh Xavi (U15412)
posted 38 minutes ago
xG is often used wrong but Fridge is bang on about underlying performances.

It's possible Spurs keep up overperforming their xG all season but it's typically a matter of time before a team regresses to the norm.

Of course Spurs could mitigate that by getting better as the season goes on.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

XG is utter rubbish, and has zero bearing on football matches. Never heard so much nonsense. It's a load of modern tosh that the modern supporters lap up.

posted on 6/11/23

comment by sandy, golden boot winner fa cup 1901 (U20567)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by kloppites (U13373)
posted 2 hours, 8 minutes ago
So any finishing above spurs wins the title , is that what your saying Sandy 😂
----------------------------------------------------------------------

No team will finish above Spurs.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
At least 1 team has finished above Spurs for every season apart from 2 in the entire history of world football so no reason why this season should be any different.

Season still has 28 games to go so calm the feeck down with your predictions

posted on 6/11/23

comment by Dan Arsenal (U21084)
posted 40 seconds ago
comment by sandy, golden boot winner fa cup 1901 (U20567)
posted 3 minutes ago
comment by kloppites (U13373)
posted 2 hours, 8 minutes ago
So any finishing above spurs wins the title , is that what your saying Sandy 😂
----------------------------------------------------------------------

No team will finish above Spurs.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
At least 1 team has finished above Spurs for every season apart from 2 in the entire history of world football so no reason why this season should be any different.

Season still has 28 games to go so calm the feeck down with your predictions
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Shut it you silly Gooner. Your team isn't included in title talk.

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