Frankly, and sadly, no.

I would like to think so. But no I can't see it happening. Looks like the play offs then

Not impossible but more realistic to expect the play-offs.

Never say never though. UTF

It's possible..... I don't think we'lldo it though!!

Good stats!

If you want another illustration of how the top two are running away with this league, consider this - although we are now in a playoff spot, we are closer on points to the relegation zone than we are to the automatic promotion spots - 9 points above the trees in 22nd spot, but 11 points behind the Irons. This is a really tough ask of Nige and the lads but I honestly believe that this season we have the quality to pull this off. No matter whether I'm right or now, I can't wait for the next 27games! UTF.

I've looked into this several times over the last few years (boring afternoons are not that unusual) and eventually decided that there's an arguable aspect to the statistics. And it's this: using the points tallies of the runners-up does not tell you how many points were *needed* to finish second that season, but rather how many were actually scored – whether needed or not.

To pick up on the example you mentioned, the year we were promoted with 92 points, we were 12 clear of third-placed Sheffield United. We did not *need* to score 92 points to finish second. We *might* have been promoted with 81.

Of course any 'points needed' calculation would by nature be a woolly one, because you would have to make assumptions about whether, if the second-place clubs had scored fewer points, any of those would have gone to their close challengers. For example, 81 would not have been enough for us if that points total had included us losing at home to Blades (we actually drew 0-0), because that results swing would have put them on 82.

With that proviso, it's interesting to look at the average (mean) number of points scored by third-placed teams over the same period. I make that figure just shy of 81 – meaning second-placed teams are, on average, promoted with about five points in hand.

I have stated in other threads that I think an automatic spot is, while not impossible, not something that we are likely to achieve this year, so please don't think I'm trying to paint a rose-tinted picture here. I'm just saying that these kind of statistical analyses can make the picture darker than it really is.

Nigel Pearsons points average this season for us is 2.33

Nothing to worry about :D

But seriously, I think we will get to the play offs, Southampton and west ham taking autos and its a lottery from there.

Interesting Stats from you Fatfox.

Taking all in to account of what you said - 81pts 3rd place average, with 5 point gap to second. That logic means circa 86 points, only 1 point short of my calculations.

Basically, we need around 85 points, give or take, and need to average 2 points a game for the rest of the season.

I think you have partly misunderstood me, Cantlebabes. Third averages 81 points, therefore second *could* have been promoted with, on average, 82. The second-placed clubs actually averaged 87, and 87-82=5, which is where the 'five points in hand' comes from.

So we don't disagree by one point about what the second-placed teams averaged – we agree that it's 87 points rounded to the nearest point. That's a given. The numbers are there in black and white.

What I'm pointing out is that the automatics are often a runaway pairing, with the second-placed team having a considerable safety margin over the play-off clubs. This means that the average points *achieved* by runners-up is five more than they might have scraped through with, had they made a couple more slip-ups.

In other words, when you say that we 'need' 87, you're not basing that on what clubs have needed in the past, but what they have achieved – because there's a difference between what teams *need* to grab second place (82) and what they actually get (87). But as I said in my earlier post, there's an incalculable element to this, because it depends which clubs would have benefited from the swing in results represented by those five points.

So, a wild optimist with rose-tinted (or perhaps I mean blue-tinted) specs will tell you that 82 will put us in with a decent shout. The average points achieved calculation says we need 87. And John Gee will tell you that we need 92 – but that's another argument entirely.

Ahhhh, I see now fatfox.

I'm with you now.

But yes, a certain element which cannot be calculated - Well it could I guess if I could be bothered, as you would need to look at 3rd v 2nd's results for each season and blah blah blah.

Somewhere between 87 and 82 points required.