I'm awaiting comments from Fatfox regarding 'needed' and 'acheived' points totals.
My maths says that we’re averaging closer to 1.5 points per game rather than 1.6.
That aside I’m in agreement. I usually work on 2 points per game for autos and 1.6 points per game for play offs at the beginning of the season. This seems to be fairly accurate when I plot it against actual results on a spreadsheet (sad I know – but I do that each season). We’re just below the play off line at the moment, but in the real world we’re in the top six; although Brum have games in hand.
Averaging 2 points a game is a pretty hard average to keep up and above that is very hard for a team that isn’t significantly better than most of the opposition. That’s why on a purely mathematical basis I’d have to say autos is a long shot, but play offs is very much on.
Good job, cantle, I was hoping you would follow up with this analysis.
Your work confirms my sense that a play-off place is entirely feasible for us. It also gives the lie to the suggestions which have sometimes been advanced by the Sven-bashers amongst us, that this season pre-Pearson was some sort of calamity.
I'm not inclined to read much into the promotion-from-play-offs stats, though. Its reasonable to suppose that the third place team will generally be the best of the rest, but below that it's truly a lottery.
lets not finish 4th haha!
^
I reckon 4th place is due.
Yeah, you're right Joby.
I rounded it up when i should have rounded down.
Bar that, I'm spot on I think.
Dunge - I reckon 4th is like 0 on a roulette table.
I'll have a tenner on zero.
36/1 u can get that
What be the odds on us finishing 4th then winning the play-off final now?
Anyway I need 3rd for my season e/w acca. 1st would be ace!
"I'm awaiting comments from Fatfox regarding 'needed' and 'acheived' points totals."
The variance is very much lower than with 2nd place, not least because on three occasions 6th and 7th were on the same points and qualification had to be decided on goal difference and then, in one case, most goals scored.
If I did the maths, I think I would find that, on average, 73pts would see you in clear 6th place and 72 would see you sweating on a goal difference calculation. The variation of five points between 'needed' and 'achieved' regarding 2nd place was worth a passing comment, but a difference of, in effect, one point for reaching 6th makes it not worth the effort of doing the actual sums.
And all of this is based on averages, while each particular season is unique. You only have to look at the table as it stands to make a guess that 5th to 8th is likely, this season, to be covered by maybe two points. A couple of sets of fans will probably end the season arguing about which of the goals conceded in stoppage time or which of the sitters spooned over the bar by their own side cost them a play-offs place – much like our relegation post-mortem squabbles a few years back.
With this in mind, aim for 2nd and settle for 4th has to be the plan – not aim for 6th and weep at 8th. Hopefully, Nigel will target getting us past 80 points – to where 2nd place is a possibility and better-than-7th a certainty.
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Getting in to the playoffs - Stats
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posted on 1/12/11
I'm awaiting comments from Fatfox regarding 'needed' and 'acheived' points totals.
posted on 1/12/11
My maths says that we’re averaging closer to 1.5 points per game rather than 1.6.
That aside I’m in agreement. I usually work on 2 points per game for autos and 1.6 points per game for play offs at the beginning of the season. This seems to be fairly accurate when I plot it against actual results on a spreadsheet (sad I know – but I do that each season). We’re just below the play off line at the moment, but in the real world we’re in the top six; although Brum have games in hand.
Averaging 2 points a game is a pretty hard average to keep up and above that is very hard for a team that isn’t significantly better than most of the opposition. That’s why on a purely mathematical basis I’d have to say autos is a long shot, but play offs is very much on.
posted on 1/12/11
Good job, cantle, I was hoping you would follow up with this analysis.
Your work confirms my sense that a play-off place is entirely feasible for us. It also gives the lie to the suggestions which have sometimes been advanced by the Sven-bashers amongst us, that this season pre-Pearson was some sort of calamity.
I'm not inclined to read much into the promotion-from-play-offs stats, though. Its reasonable to suppose that the third place team will generally be the best of the rest, but below that it's truly a lottery.
posted on 1/12/11
lets not finish 4th haha!
posted on 1/12/11
^
I reckon 4th place is due.
posted on 1/12/11
Yeah, you're right Joby.
I rounded it up when i should have rounded down.
Bar that, I'm spot on I think.
Dunge - I reckon 4th is like 0 on a roulette table.
posted on 1/12/11
I'll have a tenner on zero.
36/1 u can get that
What be the odds on us finishing 4th then winning the play-off final now?
Anyway I need 3rd for my season e/w acca. 1st would be ace!
posted on 1/12/11
"I'm awaiting comments from Fatfox regarding 'needed' and 'acheived' points totals."
The variance is very much lower than with 2nd place, not least because on three occasions 6th and 7th were on the same points and qualification had to be decided on goal difference and then, in one case, most goals scored.
If I did the maths, I think I would find that, on average, 73pts would see you in clear 6th place and 72 would see you sweating on a goal difference calculation. The variation of five points between 'needed' and 'achieved' regarding 2nd place was worth a passing comment, but a difference of, in effect, one point for reaching 6th makes it not worth the effort of doing the actual sums.
And all of this is based on averages, while each particular season is unique. You only have to look at the table as it stands to make a guess that 5th to 8th is likely, this season, to be covered by maybe two points. A couple of sets of fans will probably end the season arguing about which of the goals conceded in stoppage time or which of the sitters spooned over the bar by their own side cost them a play-offs place – much like our relegation post-mortem squabbles a few years back.
With this in mind, aim for 2nd and settle for 4th has to be the plan – not aim for 6th and weep at 8th. Hopefully, Nigel will target getting us past 80 points – to where 2nd place is a possibility and better-than-7th a certainty.
Page 1 of 1