We shouldn't have to be relying on other teams to do badly.
20 points from 24 games gives us a projected points haul of 31 points, assuming we do as badly in the remaining 14 games as the first 24 games.
We ave been achieving points at a rate of 0.83 pts per game up until now and making an assumption that 40 pts will put us safe, we will require 1.43 points to avoid the drop.
Scary thing is, is that is nearly double the rate at which we have been achieving them.
40 pts may sound high and it may be slightly less but I'm keeping it there because I don't want us to require any points to survive whatsoever on the last day of the season. I couldn't take it again!
I'm all for statistical analysis of the facts but I dont think projections and PPG ratios add much value this season.
I dont think we'll need forty to stay up because the top teams have been so dominant this year.
Our PPG ratio is also a crude average, look at it this way, it took us 17 games to get to 10 points and another 6 to get the next ten points. The more recent games are probably more relevent in predicting future results, but a crude average doesn't recognise this.
If I lie with my head in the freezer and my feet in the oven, then on average I'm at the right temperature.
It'll come down to goal difference on the last day, you watch!
Well in that case at least we can feel satisfied that if we go down we're taking the dingles with us!
If I lie with my head in the freezer and my feet in the oven, then on average I'm at the right temperature
---
Bad analogy. Your core blood temperature would remain constant throughout your body due to circulation. Your heart rate will also compensate and blood vessels would contract or dilate to maintain optimum blood temperature.
A-level Biology
Hi All
New to JA606, I don't think you can base any project points total on the first half of our season, we had players who if not for the fact of injuries would not have been a first pick ie Robbo. Teams exploited the fact that our left side was none existant, this has changed since rickets has come back from injury and was evident when Alonso played against Blackburn, yes we still have a issue with our center half pairings but OC now as other options, our run in is easier compared to the likes of QPR and providing we can win against wigan , blackburn and QPR then I think that we will be ok, and I think thatst in the 4.5.1. OC the team have realised that we can still get results without a win or bust 442, its still going to be a hard slog but we have to keep the faith it's not over till the fat lady sings and many would have counted us out for the count before xmas
I also agree with the average ppg thing. The last 6 games is normally a better indicator. The 'form table' as the media call it.
One of the strange things about our season, is only 2 draws. With 14 games to go, we are more than capable of winning 7 and losing 7.
That means 7 quiet weeks on here and 7 'numpty' weeks! Yikes.
Re Robinson...
We conceded so many goals from left hand side when he played.
Against United we conceded 5 at home... Every goal scored from the left hand side, incredible.
Urgent warning to everyone on here!!
Re the oven and freezer, Bricks is talking rubbish. To test this, I got my wife to try it out. Her temperature soared and she passed out and is now being treated fro quite serious facial burns and severe frostbite to her toes.
Luckily for me she has a great sense of humour, and being a whites fan fully understands the reason for the experiment.
7 'numpty' weeks!
You get everything you deserve from now on...
That is a direct reference to what everyone agrees is the worst post on here. Benny's 'coyle is a numpty' thread.
Come on Mallorca, even you couldn't have been happy with that one.
I deserve nothing on here. I love the banter, the disagreements, the sarcasm, the irony and the wit.
Bring it on!
It could have been worse.
He could have called him a "peelywally"or a "scunnered"
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/6520353.stm
...or a weegie, or a schemie ...or even a wee boab
Gas or electric? I think you should repeat the experiment to see if there is any variation between the two fuels - see if you can enlist your child's help.
You could spend half an hour "planking" at ambient temperature as a control
FirstOF - nice name change
P.S. I used the term "planking" to tee you up with an open goal
FirstOF - nice name change
***
Always topical - that's me, CEF But hey - that change was done a while back (last week), so another change is imminent!!
EiE
You can suffer severe burns or frostbite without any change to your core body temperature.
Core body temperature changes only occur during hyperthermia or hypothermia.
bromers (U2385)
posted 18 hours, 11 minutes ago
We shouldn't have to be relying on other teams to do badly.
__________________________________________
No that is true but we are looking for at least three teams that are worse than us.
I am very hopeful that next season we will do a lot better, we just need to survive this season and I really think that we will.
If I lie with my head in the freezer and my feet in the oven, then on average I'm at the right temperature.
____________________________________________
And quite possibly dead.
Somehow I've only just clocked this thread.
Anyway I agree with those who have pointed out that points per game projections are a waste of time.
I believe 36 points will keep anyone up this season, too.
This is how many points would have keep you up in the last 10 PL seasons, most recent first:
40, 31, 35, 37, 39, 35, 34, 34, 43, 37 (this it to stay up on points - not goal difference)
As you can see, only twice in the last ten years have 40+ points been needed to survive.
LH - I genuinely have never seen those stats presented like that before. Maybe we are all brain-washed into thinking 40pts is the magic number. Certainly managers and the media go on about 40pts.
36pts could well be enough - wow - i am even more convinced now.
I've thought 36 would keep you up all season... Heres to the next 5 wins,1 draw and 8 defeats!
The actual record for defeats and staying up is 21.
So we need 5 defeats to equal the record and 6 to beat it.
It's crazy how often teams have stayed up despite losing 4-5 more than teams who have gone down.
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posted on 5/2/12
We shouldn't have to be relying on other teams to do badly.
posted on 5/2/12
20 points from 24 games gives us a projected points haul of 31 points, assuming we do as badly in the remaining 14 games as the first 24 games.
We ave been achieving points at a rate of 0.83 pts per game up until now and making an assumption that 40 pts will put us safe, we will require 1.43 points to avoid the drop.
Scary thing is, is that is nearly double the rate at which we have been achieving them.
40 pts may sound high and it may be slightly less but I'm keeping it there because I don't want us to require any points to survive whatsoever on the last day of the season. I couldn't take it again!
posted on 5/2/12
I'm all for statistical analysis of the facts but I dont think projections and PPG ratios add much value this season.
I dont think we'll need forty to stay up because the top teams have been so dominant this year.
Our PPG ratio is also a crude average, look at it this way, it took us 17 games to get to 10 points and another 6 to get the next ten points. The more recent games are probably more relevent in predicting future results, but a crude average doesn't recognise this.
If I lie with my head in the freezer and my feet in the oven, then on average I'm at the right temperature.
posted on 5/2/12
It'll come down to goal difference on the last day, you watch!
posted on 5/2/12
Well in that case at least we can feel satisfied that if we go down we're taking the dingles with us!
posted on 5/2/12
If I lie with my head in the freezer and my feet in the oven, then on average I'm at the right temperature
---
Bad analogy. Your core blood temperature would remain constant throughout your body due to circulation. Your heart rate will also compensate and blood vessels would contract or dilate to maintain optimum blood temperature.
A-level Biology
posted on 5/2/12
Hi All
New to JA606, I don't think you can base any project points total on the first half of our season, we had players who if not for the fact of injuries would not have been a first pick ie Robbo. Teams exploited the fact that our left side was none existant, this has changed since rickets has come back from injury and was evident when Alonso played against Blackburn, yes we still have a issue with our center half pairings but OC now as other options, our run in is easier compared to the likes of QPR and providing we can win against wigan , blackburn and QPR then I think that we will be ok, and I think thatst in the 4.5.1. OC the team have realised that we can still get results without a win or bust 442, its still going to be a hard slog but we have to keep the faith it's not over till the fat lady sings and many would have counted us out for the count before xmas
posted on 6/2/12
I also agree with the average ppg thing. The last 6 games is normally a better indicator. The 'form table' as the media call it.
One of the strange things about our season, is only 2 draws. With 14 games to go, we are more than capable of winning 7 and losing 7.
That means 7 quiet weeks on here and 7 'numpty' weeks! Yikes.
posted on 6/2/12
Re Robinson...
We conceded so many goals from left hand side when he played.
Against United we conceded 5 at home... Every goal scored from the left hand side, incredible.
posted on 6/2/12
Urgent warning to everyone on here!!
Re the oven and freezer, Bricks is talking rubbish. To test this, I got my wife to try it out. Her temperature soared and she passed out and is now being treated fro quite serious facial burns and severe frostbite to her toes.
Luckily for me she has a great sense of humour, and being a whites fan fully understands the reason for the experiment.
posted on 6/2/12
7 'numpty' weeks!
You get everything you deserve from now on...
posted on 6/2/12
That is a direct reference to what everyone agrees is the worst post on here. Benny's 'coyle is a numpty' thread.
Come on Mallorca, even you couldn't have been happy with that one.
I deserve nothing on here. I love the banter, the disagreements, the sarcasm, the irony and the wit.
Bring it on!
posted on 6/2/12
It could have been worse.
He could have called him a "peelywally"or a "scunnered"
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/6520353.stm
posted on 6/2/12
...or a weegie, or a schemie ...or even a wee boab
posted on 6/2/12
Gas or electric? I think you should repeat the experiment to see if there is any variation between the two fuels - see if you can enlist your child's help.
You could spend half an hour "planking" at ambient temperature as a control
posted on 6/2/12
FirstOF - nice name change
posted on 6/2/12
P.S. I used the term "planking" to tee you up with an open goal
posted on 6/2/12
FirstOF - nice name change
***
Always topical - that's me, CEF But hey - that change was done a while back (last week), so another change is imminent!!
posted on 6/2/12
EiE
You can suffer severe burns or frostbite without any change to your core body temperature.
Core body temperature changes only occur during hyperthermia or hypothermia.
posted on 6/2/12
bromers (U2385)
posted 18 hours, 11 minutes ago
We shouldn't have to be relying on other teams to do badly.
__________________________________________
No that is true but we are looking for at least three teams that are worse than us.
I am very hopeful that next season we will do a lot better, we just need to survive this season and I really think that we will.
posted on 6/2/12
If I lie with my head in the freezer and my feet in the oven, then on average I'm at the right temperature.
____________________________________________
And quite possibly dead.
posted on 6/2/12
Somehow I've only just clocked this thread.
Anyway I agree with those who have pointed out that points per game projections are a waste of time.
I believe 36 points will keep anyone up this season, too.
This is how many points would have keep you up in the last 10 PL seasons, most recent first:
40, 31, 35, 37, 39, 35, 34, 34, 43, 37 (this it to stay up on points - not goal difference)
As you can see, only twice in the last ten years have 40+ points been needed to survive.
posted on 6/2/12
LH - I genuinely have never seen those stats presented like that before. Maybe we are all brain-washed into thinking 40pts is the magic number. Certainly managers and the media go on about 40pts.
36pts could well be enough - wow - i am even more convinced now.
posted on 6/2/12
I've thought 36 would keep you up all season... Heres to the next 5 wins,1 draw and 8 defeats!
posted on 6/2/12
The actual record for defeats and staying up is 21.
So we need 5 defeats to equal the record and 6 to beat it.
It's crazy how often teams have stayed up despite losing 4-5 more than teams who have gone down.
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