Div2 Round 14 matches preview

Can perennial under-achievers Derbyshire make it into the top-flight for the 1st time since the County Championship was split into two divisions?

Can they even – whisper it quietly – win something?

Over-confidence is not an emotion familiar to the average long-suffering DCCC follower. As the 1st class season approaches its finale, here’s a thought to keep expectations under control:

Despite our apparently comfortable lead, only Leicestershire are mathematically certain to finish below us

A sobering thought, isn’t it? Despite the best 1st-class season in living memory, so far all we’re guaranteed is bragging rights over the foxes.

Situation Analysis
Of our rivals, Yorkshire are the most dangerous, with a potential points haul of 203, followed by Kent with a potential maximum of 197, and Hants with 192.

So the task ahead is this: Take 43 points or more from the next 3 matches to be sure of the title or 37 or more to be sure of second place (and promotion).

The 1st lesson to absorb is that 3 draws with maximum bonus points only comes to 33 points, so we need at least one win, unless our rivals do us a favour.

Of course, if our rivals do fail to take maximum points from their remaining fixtures, then those targets could start to tumble pretty rapidly - but until that actually happens Derbyshire need to aim to get enough points to win despite the best our rivals can offer.

Derbyshire
For Derbyshire the final two matches of the season are against high-flying Kent and Hants, which puts a sharp focus on the need for a win when we host Essex starting tomorrow. Essex beat Kent at the start of August, and then had the better of a high-scoring draw against Glamorgan so they are in decent form going into the match.

However, in the fixture at Chelmsford back in May Derbys won by an innings inside three days, so we also have gounds for hoping the game may go our way.

Yorkshire
The only undefeated county in 1st class cricket this season, but their bugbear has been failing to turn draws into wins. More often than not, this has been associated with time lost to the weather as Derbyshire can happily confirm after escaping Headingley with a draw earlier this month from a match that lost 80-odd overs to the rain.

Yorks have chosen to host Gloucs at Scarborough, the venue for one of their 2 wins so far this summer. in one of those sporting coincidences, their only other win came against Gloucs in the fixture played at Bristol earlier in the season.

In a rain affected match the captains contrived declarations in order to make a result possible and Yorkshire came out on top. Perhaps a reminder for the Yorkshire faithful that the weather has helped as well as hindered their cause.

Kent
Visit Grace Road tomorrow to take on lowly Leicester. Their hosts will be hoping to repeat the treatment they handed-out to high-flying Hants, and end a poor season for them on an upbeat note.

Kent will still fancy their chances. As well as this fixture their final game is against bottom-club Glamorgan, both eminently winnable matches. In between they play Derbyshire, a fixture they cannot afford to lose if they are to win the title. Win it however, and the cat really will be among the pigeons.

Hants
Have already played their 14th match - a surprise loss to Leicestershire that has switched them from 2nd to 4th favourites for the Title in the space of four days.

They sit out this round of matches, and need both Yorkshire and Kent to fail to win if they are still to be in 2nd place when they next take the field in the LV=.

I wonder whether Hants will be rooting for Essex in this round of matches? If Derbys win they would be (almost) uncatchable from Hants point of view, but 24 points for Essex would bring them to within 4 points of Hants and a 5-way bun-fight for the top two slots would definitely be on. It would be fascinating to know if they would prefer a better chance of coming 2nd at the expense of a worst chance of coming first or vice versa.

Weather
The forecast for 28th~30th August isn’t good for Scarborough, Derby or Leicester, with particularly high chances for showers on the Wednesday & Thursday. Any captain hoping for a win had better construct a game-plan that delivers with plenty of time to spare!