Forest (A) - It starts again...

With images > http://htafcblogspace.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/Forest-Away.html

The 2013/14 season kicks off this Saturday and for us it's a visit to The City Ground to take on Nottingham Forest. The last time we began a campaign in Nottingham was in 2010/11 when we were impressive in a 3-0 victory against Notts County. However, our most recent visit to the city in February was one to forget as we were beaten 6-1, with the biggest T1TS on display that evening representing Town rather than Hooters.

That heavy defeat last season was the first game in charge of Huddersfield for Mark Robins, while it was the first victory for Billy Davies since returning to manage Forest. Radoslaw Majewski scored a hat-trick and the final result did not flatter a Forest team who in all honesty could have scored more. Town's collapse that evening was something we saw on a number of occasions last season, but under Robins we eventually managed to improve a dire defence and achieve survival.

Despite losing heavily at Forest and a couple of weeks later at Brighton, Robins definitely made an early impact when appointed. Town took 10 points from a possible 18 in his first six games and we also won three of our last five games to ensure we finished outside of the bottom three. We averaged 1.4 points per game under Robins, an average which would have seen us finish 10th had we managed it all season. The task now is to continue improving and make sure we're not in a relegation battle next May.

Improvements at Town
Robins, alongside Dean Hoyle, Nigel Clibbens and Ross Wilson, has certainly made moves to improve the squad. Cult hero James Vaughan has signed a permanent deal with the club following his successful loan spell, while Martin Paterson and Jon Stead both signed on free transfers to provide more firepower. Adam Hammill is another former loanee to complete a permanent move while Jonathan Hogg signed from Watford earlier this week to bolster a lightweight midfield. Our midfield and attack are definitely improved on what we had at our disposal last season.

A major concern for Town fans however is that we haven't really made any moves to improve what was the worst defence in the Championship last season excluding the teams who were relegated. On his day Joel Lynch is our best central defender so a lot of hope hinges on him finding the form which impressed fans upon his arrival last term. Most fans are adament that a defender will be signed in the near future, and if a good one can be acquired all areas of the squad will have been strengthened. A solid defence would be a great backbone for our improved attack.

No matter what squad improvements have been made, the aim again should be survival. It's pivotal that we become accustomed to Championship football to grow as a club. We must maintain our status in England's second tier, and grow year on year. Improvement this season would be to avoid a relegation battle come May - we could end up with less points than last season but be comfortably above the drop zone - that would be progress. We have a Championship infrastructure, and in my opinion we have a decent Championship squad, so survival is very attainable.

Improvements at Forest
Our opponents this weekend have very different objectives for the season. If you follow pretty much any Forest fan on Twitter they'll tell you they're confident of promotion (as well as talking about Derby A LOT). They have every reason to be positive too - they had a very strong squad which under-performed to a certain degree last season, and have made some very smart acquisitions during the summer. Jack Hobbs, Jamie Mackie and Gonzalo Jara in particular stand out as top quality signings at this level. Forest also signed long-time Town target Jamie Paterson from Walsall.

Forest are as short as 7/2 to be promoted to the Premier League (Town are 20/1 by comparison) and in Billy Davies they have a manager who knows the club very well. His return was celebrated by fans and he made an instant impact - after failing to win in his first two games he led Forest to six consecutive league wins, beginning with the 6-1 mauling of Town. At one point Forest looked as though they might even threaten the top two but their form tailed off worryingly to the end of the season. They finished just one point off the playoffs after winning only one of their last eight games.

They'll need to get off to a good start this season if they're to keep up with the teams fighting at the top of the table. This season looks like it will be the most competitive it's been in a while at the top end with all three relegated teams looking very strong while Forest, Leicester, Bolton and Watford all have ambitions to finish in the top two. Forest were arguably the most impressive team we played last season over two games - it's between them and Leicester for me - and they head into this weekend as heavy favourites. Forest to score four or more at 10/1 does look tempting.

Does a good start guarantee success?
Our last five opening games of the season, along with our league performance thereafter, are below:
12/13: Cardiff 1 TOWN 0 - Finished 19th
11/12: TOWN 1 Bury 1 - Finished 4th (promoted)
10/11: Notts County 0 TOWN 3 - Finished 3rd
09/10: Southend United 2 TOWN 2 - Finished 6th
08/09: Stockport County 1 TOWN 1 - Finished 9th

A good start won't necessarily mean a good season. On the three occasions we've won in the last ten years we haven't been promoted once, while our two promotion campaigns started with draws. Likewise the three opening day losses we've suffered haven't resulted in relegation - there's nothing much to read into opening day results as teams can improve, or regress over the course of a 46 game season. Indeed we kicked off the 2005/06 season with a 2-1 defeat at The City Ground but finished three places above Forest.

At the end of September last season Town were top of the league after seven games having just beaten then on-fire Blackpool at Bloomfield Road. At the same time Peterborough United had lost all seven of their opening games. However, deep into the second half of our final game of the season we were stuck below Posh who had found great form after their dire start while we had suffered a terrible slump after a bright start. Point being - a good start is nice but eventually counts for nothing unless you're consistent across 46 games.

Head to head
We've conceded an alarming 13 goals in our last three visits to The City Ground - last season's 6-1 hammering was preceded by a 2-1 defeat in 2008 while in 2007 we were thumped 5-1. Last season's loss was one of a number of collapses, we were 1-0 up but ended up being lucky to concede only six with Radoslaw Majewski netting a hat-trick. We haven't had much luck against Forest at all in recent seasons as we've currently gone six league games without a win, a record any Town fan would be delighted to end on Saturday.

We haven't managed to claim three points at The City Ground since we claimed a 3-1 win in December 2000. Kevin Gallen scored two and Peter Ndlovu got the other on a Wednesday night on that occasion. That was the exception rather than the rule though in recent meetings as as we've only four of the last 19 meetings between the two teams. Our best run against Forest was a long, long time ago. We went 10 games without defeat between 1920 and 1952, winning eight of those games. Overall head to head record: TOWN (16), Forest (12), Draw (12).

My team > http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-cEJlkRXu98k/Uff36tAYQsI/AAAAAAAAAKg/Pa5xA7MlVVA/s320/town+team.jpg

Predictions
I'm not going to predict the team that Mark Robins will pick this weekend, I'm going to give the team that I'd like to see play. The defence picks itself with Gerrard injured and no new defender yet signed (at the time of writing). I'd play Hogg in the middle with Norwood and Clayton, with Clayton allowed to push further forward. Scannell and Hammill are both better than Ward in my opinion, while Vaughan picks himself as our best centre forward.

Robins likes to play a 4-2-3-1 system with one striker, two deep midfielders, and three attacking midfielders (two wingers and one player linking up play between midfield and striker). However, our defence remains leaky and Forest are a VERY good team, so for those reasons I'd lose the advanced midfielder - Paterson has played this role in pre-season - and have three deeper midfielders, with Hammill and Scannell offering the ability to run the ball out on the counter attack.

Right, scoreline prediction. We certainly look better going forward and have been more creative in pre-season so I believe we have goals in us. However, unless we sign a central defender soon we will still leak goals like a sieve. My prediction therefore - 4-2 TO FOREST.