Welcome to the first in a series of monthly football related complex problems.
Are you a brainy enough wolf to solve the puzzle?
ROUND ONE
What is the probability of guessing all 8 groups correctly in the world cup draw?
Some pointers:
Order does not matter per group (combination not permutation)
8 seeded teams will definitely not be in the same group as each other.
Other rules apply ( outlined below)
Fifa WC 2014 draw rules
*32 teams divided into 4 pots of 8 teams
* All eight Pot 1 teams will be drawn into groups in order from A to H.
* One of the nine European teams in Pot 4 will be randomly drawn and moved to Pot 2.
* One of Brazil, Argentina, Colombia or Uruguay from Pot 1 will be drawn out to be grouped with this European team.
* FIFA will accomplish this by placing Brazil, Argentina, Colombia and Uruguay into a temporary "Pot X."
* The nation drawn from "Pot X" will be in the same group as the European team that was moved to Pot 2.
The last important rule is that if Ecuador or Chile are drawn in a group that already contains a South American team they will placed in the next group that does not contain a South American team (from A-H).
Once these rules have been applied the draw will assign selected teams to chosen groups with no further restrictions applied.
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Correct answer is worth 100 points and the first correct answer submitted is the winner.
If no one correctly calculates the probability, the points will roll over to Jan brainy wolf puzzle but 50 points will also be awarded for the best attempt.
Answer must show your calculations AND the answer.
The answer alone is not enough to win.
GOOD LUCK!!!!
December Brainy Wolf R1
posted on 6/12/13
My Attempt
0.111111111 Predict which of the 9 european teams will enter pot 2
0.25 Predict which of the SA teams will be drawn from pot X
0.25 1st SA team in pot 2
0.333333333 2nd SA team in pot 2
0.2 1st Other team in Pot 2
0.25 2nd Other team in Pot 2
0.333333333 3rd Other team in Pot 2
0.25 4th Other team in Pot 2
0.5 5th Other team in Pot 2
0.125 1st team in Pot 3
0.142857143 2nd team in Pot 3
0.166666667 3rd team in Pot 3
0.2 4th team in Pot 3
0.25 5th team in Pot 3
0.333333333 6th team in Pot 3
0.5 7th team in Pot 3
0.125 1st team in Pot 4
0.142857143 2nd team in Pot 4
0.166666667 3rd team in Pot 4
0.2 4th team in Pot 4
0.25 5th team in Pot 4
0.333333333 6th team in Pot 4
0.5 7th team in Pot 4
Final Consideration is that there are two ways of achieving any outcome (ie the european team in pot 2 and corresponding team in pot 4 could be switched)
therefore half the oddds
1 in 168,552,824,832,000
posted on 6/12/13
Almost!
posted on 6/12/13
Small Error spotted
Second Attempt
0.111111111 Predict which of the 9 european teams will enter pot 2
0.25 Predict which of the SA teams will be drawn from pot X
0.25 1st SA team in pot 2
0.333333333 2nd SA team in pot 2
0.2 1st Other team in Pot 2
0.25 2nd Other team in Pot 2
0.333333333 3rd Other team in Pot 2
0.5 4th Other team in Pot 2
0.125 1st team in Pot 3
0.142857143 2nd team in Pot 3
0.166666667 3rd team in Pot 3
0.2 4th team in Pot 3
0.25 5th team in Pot 3
0.333333333 6th team in Pot 3
0.5 7th team in Pot 3
0.125 1st team in Pot 4
0.142857143 2nd team in Pot 4
0.166666667 3rd team in Pot 4
0.2 4th team in Pot 4
0.25 5th team in Pot 4
0.333333333 6th team in Pot 4
0.5 7th team in Pot 4
Final Consideration is that there are two ways of achieving any outcome (ie the european team in pot 2 and corresponding team in pot 4 could be switched)
therefore half the oddds
42,138,206,208,000
posted on 6/12/13
I remember the same kind of poor application of pure maths when predicting Wolves' promotion under Stale
posted on 7/12/13
Yes, what did happen to that spreadsheet that had us harvesting more points throughout December 2012 than any other team in the country?
posted on 7/12/13
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posted on 7/12/13
Tino
Who are you gonna be supporting then mate?
Dressed in your safari suit and pith helmet on June 15th up in The Amazon in Manaus City?
posted on 7/12/13
"3. England drawn in group based in high population area.
4. English police tell them to put them in the jungle."
Depressingly accurate unfortunately Larry!
posted on 7/12/13
posted on 8/12/13
Tino
Who are you gonna be supporting then mate?
Draw would suit me best want Italy England 1/2
But if pushed Italy win