I'll say what ever Tatter says as I can't log in to my Binary account.
Give it a go Tara, you may do better than you think you will!
What is the probability of guessing all 8 groups correctly in the world cup draw?
Incredibly fcucking small?
Good article but waaaaaay beyond my capabilities/the time I'm willing to spend to work it out for imaginary internet points.
1. France drawn in same group as Brazil.
2. Platini tells them to put that ball back in.
3. England drawn in group based in high population area.
4. English police tell them to put them in the jungle.
12,000,000 - 1
Pot 1-------------Pot 2-------------Pot 3--------------Pot 4
Brazil-------Ivory Coast--------Japan---------Bosnia/ Herze
Spain--------Ghana ---------------Iran--------------Croatia
Germany-----Algeria------South Korea ---------England
Argentina----Nigeria---------Australia------------France
Colombia---Cameroon---United States-------Greece
Belgium--------Chile-----------Mexico---------------Italy
Uruguay-----Ecuador------Costa Rica-------Netherlands
Switzerland--------------------Honduras---------Portugal
-----------------------------------------------------------Russia
Group A
Brazil, Ghana, Japan, Croatia
Group B
Spain, Ecuador, South Korea, Netherlands
Group C
Germany, Chile, France, Honduras
Group D
Argentina, Russia, Australia, Greece
Group E
Colombia, Cameroon, United States, Portugal
Group F
Belgium, Algeria, Mexico, Bosnia/ Herze
Group of Death
Uruguay, Nigeria, Iran, England
Group H
Switzerland, Ivory Coast, Costa Rica, Italy
I don't even know where to start working the odds on this one out.
but for its worth
Group A
Argentina
Cameroon
Japan
Croatia
Group B
Brazil
Ghana
Sth Korea
England
Group C
Uruguay
France
Algeria
Australia
Group D
Spain
Chile
Mexico
Greece
Group E
Colombia
Nigeria
USA
Italy
Group F
Germany
Ecuador
iRan
Bosnia
Group G
Belgium
Ivory Coast
Portugal
Honduras
Group H
Switzerland
Costa Rica
Netherlands
Russia
I messed up somewhere
TIP:
Visualise the draw taking place and break it down into steps.
Comment deleted by Article Creator
Please stay on topic Alone(Bute?).
Why mention MM at every opportunity?
32.3% Brazil, 26% Germany, 13.1% Argentina, 7.8% Spain, 5.4% Belgium, 5.2% England, 2.3% Uruguay, 1.2% Netherlands, 1%Portugal, 0.9% Colombia, 0.9% Italy, 0.6% Iran, 0.6% Nigeria, 0.5% France, 0.3% Chile, 0.3% Bosnia-Hercegovina, 0.3% Honduras, 0.2% Switzerland, 0.2% Ghana, 0.2% Algeria, 0.2 United States, 0.1% Ecuador, 0.1% Greece, 0.1% Mexico, 0.1% Australia, 0.1% Japan, 0% Cameroon, Croatia, Russia, South Korea, Ivory Coast, Costa Rica.
There are 36864 possible combinations (9*8*8*8*8) therefore 36863/1.
Or maybe that should be 36864/1 - or maybe it should be something entirely different altogether.
I'm afraid that's incorrect Greengrocer, sorry.
Larry, I've no idea what you're answering?
I've opened it up to spurs/arsenal fans, see if they fair any better!
My Attempt
0.111111111 Predict which of the 9 european teams will enter pot 2
0.25 Predict which of the SA teams will be drawn from pot X
0.25 1st SA team in pot 2
0.333333333 2nd SA team in pot 2
0.2 1st Other team in Pot 2
0.25 2nd Other team in Pot 2
0.333333333 3rd Other team in Pot 2
0.25 4th Other team in Pot 2
0.5 5th Other team in Pot 2
0.125 1st team in Pot 3
0.142857143 2nd team in Pot 3
0.166666667 3rd team in Pot 3
0.2 4th team in Pot 3
0.25 5th team in Pot 3
0.333333333 6th team in Pot 3
0.5 7th team in Pot 3
0.125 1st team in Pot 4
0.142857143 2nd team in Pot 4
0.166666667 3rd team in Pot 4
0.2 4th team in Pot 4
0.25 5th team in Pot 4
0.333333333 6th team in Pot 4
0.5 7th team in Pot 4
Final Consideration is that there are two ways of achieving any outcome (ie the european team in pot 2 and corresponding team in pot 4 could be switched)
therefore half the oddds
1 in 168,552,824,832,000
Small Error spotted
Second Attempt
0.111111111 Predict which of the 9 european teams will enter pot 2
0.25 Predict which of the SA teams will be drawn from pot X
0.25 1st SA team in pot 2
0.333333333 2nd SA team in pot 2
0.2 1st Other team in Pot 2
0.25 2nd Other team in Pot 2
0.333333333 3rd Other team in Pot 2
0.5 4th Other team in Pot 2
0.125 1st team in Pot 3
0.142857143 2nd team in Pot 3
0.166666667 3rd team in Pot 3
0.2 4th team in Pot 3
0.25 5th team in Pot 3
0.333333333 6th team in Pot 3
0.5 7th team in Pot 3
0.125 1st team in Pot 4
0.142857143 2nd team in Pot 4
0.166666667 3rd team in Pot 4
0.2 4th team in Pot 4
0.25 5th team in Pot 4
0.333333333 6th team in Pot 4
0.5 7th team in Pot 4
Final Consideration is that there are two ways of achieving any outcome (ie the european team in pot 2 and corresponding team in pot 4 could be switched)
therefore half the oddds
42,138,206,208,000
I remember the same kind of poor application of pure maths when predicting Wolves' promotion under Stale
Yes, what did happen to that spreadsheet that had us harvesting more points throughout December 2012 than any other team in the country?
..................... .....................
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.^........................^........................^
.^........................^..........................^
.^........................^..........................^
.............................................
Tino
Who are you gonna be supporting then mate?
Dressed in your safari suit and pith helmet on June 15th up in The Amazon in Manaus City?
"3. England drawn in group based in high population area.
4. English police tell them to put them in the jungle."
Depressingly accurate unfortunately Larry!
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December Brainy Wolf R1
Page 1 of 2
posted on 6/12/13
I'll say what ever Tatter says as I can't log in to my Binary account.
posted on 6/12/13
Give it a go Tara, you may do better than you think you will!
posted on 6/12/13
What is the probability of guessing all 8 groups correctly in the world cup draw?
Incredibly fcucking small?
Good article but waaaaaay beyond my capabilities/the time I'm willing to spend to work it out for imaginary internet points.
posted on 6/12/13
1. France drawn in same group as Brazil.
2. Platini tells them to put that ball back in.
3. England drawn in group based in high population area.
4. English police tell them to put them in the jungle.
12,000,000 - 1
posted on 6/12/13
Pot 1-------------Pot 2-------------Pot 3--------------Pot 4
Brazil-------Ivory Coast--------Japan---------Bosnia/ Herze
Spain--------Ghana ---------------Iran--------------Croatia
Germany-----Algeria------South Korea ---------England
Argentina----Nigeria---------Australia------------France
Colombia---Cameroon---United States-------Greece
Belgium--------Chile-----------Mexico---------------Italy
Uruguay-----Ecuador------Costa Rica-------Netherlands
Switzerland--------------------Honduras---------Portugal
-----------------------------------------------------------Russia
posted on 6/12/13
Group A
Brazil, Ghana, Japan, Croatia
Group B
Spain, Ecuador, South Korea, Netherlands
Group C
Germany, Chile, France, Honduras
Group D
Argentina, Russia, Australia, Greece
Group E
Colombia, Cameroon, United States, Portugal
Group F
Belgium, Algeria, Mexico, Bosnia/ Herze
Group of Death
Uruguay, Nigeria, Iran, England
Group H
Switzerland, Ivory Coast, Costa Rica, Italy
posted on 6/12/13
I don't even know where to start working the odds on this one out.
but for its worth
Group A
Argentina
Cameroon
Japan
Croatia
Group B
Brazil
Ghana
Sth Korea
England
Group C
Uruguay
France
Algeria
Australia
Group D
Spain
Chile
Mexico
Greece
Group E
Colombia
Nigeria
USA
Italy
Group F
Germany
Ecuador
iRan
Bosnia
Group G
Belgium
Ivory Coast
Portugal
Honduras
Group H
Switzerland
Costa Rica
Netherlands
Russia
I messed up somewhere
posted on 6/12/13
TIP:
Visualise the draw taking place and break it down into steps.
posted on 6/12/13
Comment deleted by Article Creator
posted on 6/12/13
Please stay on topic Alone(Bute?).
Why mention MM at every opportunity?
posted on 6/12/13
32.3% Brazil, 26% Germany, 13.1% Argentina, 7.8% Spain, 5.4% Belgium, 5.2% England, 2.3% Uruguay, 1.2% Netherlands, 1%Portugal, 0.9% Colombia, 0.9% Italy, 0.6% Iran, 0.6% Nigeria, 0.5% France, 0.3% Chile, 0.3% Bosnia-Hercegovina, 0.3% Honduras, 0.2% Switzerland, 0.2% Ghana, 0.2% Algeria, 0.2 United States, 0.1% Ecuador, 0.1% Greece, 0.1% Mexico, 0.1% Australia, 0.1% Japan, 0% Cameroon, Croatia, Russia, South Korea, Ivory Coast, Costa Rica.
posted on 6/12/13
There are 36864 possible combinations (9*8*8*8*8) therefore 36863/1.
posted on 6/12/13
Or maybe that should be 36864/1 - or maybe it should be something entirely different altogether.
posted on 6/12/13
I'm afraid that's incorrect Greengrocer, sorry.
posted on 6/12/13
Larry, I've no idea what you're answering?
posted on 6/12/13
I've opened it up to spurs/arsenal fans, see if they fair any better!
posted on 6/12/13
^fare
posted on 6/12/13
My Attempt
0.111111111 Predict which of the 9 european teams will enter pot 2
0.25 Predict which of the SA teams will be drawn from pot X
0.25 1st SA team in pot 2
0.333333333 2nd SA team in pot 2
0.2 1st Other team in Pot 2
0.25 2nd Other team in Pot 2
0.333333333 3rd Other team in Pot 2
0.25 4th Other team in Pot 2
0.5 5th Other team in Pot 2
0.125 1st team in Pot 3
0.142857143 2nd team in Pot 3
0.166666667 3rd team in Pot 3
0.2 4th team in Pot 3
0.25 5th team in Pot 3
0.333333333 6th team in Pot 3
0.5 7th team in Pot 3
0.125 1st team in Pot 4
0.142857143 2nd team in Pot 4
0.166666667 3rd team in Pot 4
0.2 4th team in Pot 4
0.25 5th team in Pot 4
0.333333333 6th team in Pot 4
0.5 7th team in Pot 4
Final Consideration is that there are two ways of achieving any outcome (ie the european team in pot 2 and corresponding team in pot 4 could be switched)
therefore half the oddds
1 in 168,552,824,832,000
posted on 6/12/13
Almost!
posted on 6/12/13
Small Error spotted
Second Attempt
0.111111111 Predict which of the 9 european teams will enter pot 2
0.25 Predict which of the SA teams will be drawn from pot X
0.25 1st SA team in pot 2
0.333333333 2nd SA team in pot 2
0.2 1st Other team in Pot 2
0.25 2nd Other team in Pot 2
0.333333333 3rd Other team in Pot 2
0.5 4th Other team in Pot 2
0.125 1st team in Pot 3
0.142857143 2nd team in Pot 3
0.166666667 3rd team in Pot 3
0.2 4th team in Pot 3
0.25 5th team in Pot 3
0.333333333 6th team in Pot 3
0.5 7th team in Pot 3
0.125 1st team in Pot 4
0.142857143 2nd team in Pot 4
0.166666667 3rd team in Pot 4
0.2 4th team in Pot 4
0.25 5th team in Pot 4
0.333333333 6th team in Pot 4
0.5 7th team in Pot 4
Final Consideration is that there are two ways of achieving any outcome (ie the european team in pot 2 and corresponding team in pot 4 could be switched)
therefore half the oddds
42,138,206,208,000
posted on 6/12/13
I remember the same kind of poor application of pure maths when predicting Wolves' promotion under Stale
posted on 7/12/13
Yes, what did happen to that spreadsheet that had us harvesting more points throughout December 2012 than any other team in the country?
posted on 7/12/13
..................... .....................
.^........................^........................^
.^........................^........................^
.^........................^..........................^
.^........................^..........................^
.............................................
posted on 7/12/13
Tino
Who are you gonna be supporting then mate?
Dressed in your safari suit and pith helmet on June 15th up in The Amazon in Manaus City?
posted on 7/12/13
"3. England drawn in group based in high population area.
4. English police tell them to put them in the jungle."
Depressingly accurate unfortunately Larry!
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