"United's problem is money not manager"

Interesting article on the problems facing United going forward: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/e1e6e5d8-ca14-11e3-ac05-00144feabdc0.html#axzz301la57Ja

"Most managers have relatively little influence on their teams’ results, argues Stefan Szymanski, economics professor at the University of Michigan and my co-author for our book Soccernomics. Rather, the key determinant of a club’s league position is its wage bill. Prof Szymanski shows that in the English and Italian top divisions, averaged over a period of 10 years, the correlation between wage bill and league position is about 90 per cent. In other words, if you can afford good players, they will win matches. Managers matter much less. Prof Szymanski reckons that only about 10 per cent of managers consistently overachieve relative to their wage bills. Ferguson was the UK’s foremost overachiever – but Moyes too was among that elite 10 per cent during his Everton years.

"The bigger problem for any new manager is that United’s golden age may be over. From 2008 through to 2011, the club enjoyed statistically its best period: three English titles and three Champions League finals, one of which was won. Those days aren’t coming back, not even if the Glazers meet expectations by spending close to £200m on new players this summer. Given the inflation at the top end of the transfer market, and United’s need for several world-class players, even £200m might not be enough to match Chelsea or Manchester City. Ferguson could compete with them despite United’s lower spending, but then Ferguson was an almost unmatched overachiever.


"Money buys success in football and several clubs now have more money than United. From 1997 through 2004, United topped the consultancy Deloitte’s “rich list" of European football clubs ranked by revenues. In 2012-13, United dropped out of the top three for the first time since Deloitte began compiling the list. Real Madrid, Barcelona and Bayern Munich now have higher revenues. Moreover, Chelsea, Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain have oil-rich owners who pump money in rather than sucking it out. By the logic of the market that means there are six clubs in Europe more likely to win the Champions League than United. In the domestic league, by the same logic, the club’s natural position is now third behind Chelsea and Manchester City. (Less wealthy Liverpool will probably win this season’s Premier League, but their overachievement is probably unique in recent English history.)"


Thoughts?

My take is that they seem to think that Moyes - being an "overachiever" in the wage bill/ success relationship should have stayed, and that in order to get back to the top we need to either spend a great deal more or employ a überoverachiever. Personally, I'm not entirely sure the wage bill/success relationship is causal. In an industry in which fine margins determine titles, managers are clearly important. I'm not sure why they have a view on Van Gaal if results are predetermined unless it's with the intention to imply that he won't last very long because of his caustic reputation.