PL footy is back this week, and looking at our fixture list, I get the feeling our first two fixtures (Spurs and Sheffield United) are going to have a massive bearing on wether we will be playing CL football next season.
After those two fixtures (bar Leicester on the last day) we should be looking to take maximum points from the rest, now even more so the away games as they’re in empty stadiums.
Chelsea have what looks to be a harder fixture list overall, so I think our first two games will be a massive indicator as to wether we can secure that 4th spot.
Fixture list
posted on 15/6/20
comment by Reddevilsdouble II (U22313)
posted 14 minutes ago
Home turf. Expectation is greater. Less travel.....
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Scientific studies suggest otherwise.
Ryan Boyko, a research assistant in the Department of Psychology in the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, studied 5,000 English Premier League games from 1992 to 2006, to discern any officiating bias and the influence of home crowds. The data was published in the Journal of Sports Sciences and suggested that for every additional 10,000 people attending, home team advantage increased by 0.1 goals.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/6629397.stm
And here's a study that looked exclusively at derby matches between teams that share a stadium (i.e. under control conditions where familiarity with the stadium and travel distances are not factors) which still concludes that 'the existence of a sizable crowd support’s effect on the home advantage generated both through the influence on referee’s decisions and through the encouragement of players’ performance'.
http://ftp.iza.org/dp8105.pdf
posted on 15/6/20
I think having a small squad and using the same line up most weeks, that the break will have done Sheff U a good deed. They would’ve been everyone’s pick to fade away at the end as the season takes its toll, but they can start fresh now with their workrate a huge factor as they did at the beginning of the season.
Very tough fixtures for them, but they’ve taken the big games well so far.
posted on 15/6/20
Another factor, regardless of opposition, is what teams have to play for.
Liverpool might be a good fixture with a few games left, then you have most mid table sides who would be an easier game than those in relegation etc.
posted on 15/6/20
Tbf I think Liverpool will be looking to win the rest of their games.
No cup competitions and a record points total to get
posted on 15/6/20
Another factor, regardless of opposition, is what teams have to play for.
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This is true. Looking at our last four games, Southampton, Palace, West Ham and Leicester could potentially have nothing to play for at that stage. Or if they continue playing crap will be battling for points.
But regardless, it’ll be a massive disappointment if we don’t get top four looking at the quality of the teams we have to play.
posted on 15/6/20
Home turf. Expectation is greater. Less travel.....
posted on 15/6/20
comment by Reddevilsdouble II (U22313)
posted 13 minutes ago
Home turf. Expectation is greater. Less travel.....
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While your intuitions about the factors underpinning home advantage are really interesting, RDD, as I mentioned above, quite a lot of actual scientific study has been devoted to understanding it. And found that specifically the support of the home *crowd* (and even the size of that crowd) has an impact. Interestingly, that impact seems to be detected in the number of penalties awarded, as well as overall team performance.
posted on 15/6/20
While your intuitions about the factors underpinning home advantage are really interesting, RDD
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posted on 15/6/20
comment by Imran The King Khan (U10026)
posted 4 hours, 25 minutes ago
Another factor, regardless of opposition, is what teams have to play for.
———
This is true. Looking at our last four games, Southampton, Palace, West Ham and Leicester could potentially have nothing to play for at that stage. Or if they continue playing crap will be battling for points.
But regardless, it’ll be a massive disappointment if we don’t get top four looking at the quality of the teams we have to play.
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I think Chelsea will finish the season strongly tbh, so it might not be fully in our hands.
posted on 15/6/20
They may do, but they’ve got some difficult fixtures left and have struggled to win points in these bigger games this season. They’ll drop enough points for us to realistically finish above them, if we don’t as we continue to fack up against teams we should be beating I’ll be disappointed - especially given the players we have back fit.