(Started writing this before the big news came in, so it seems a bit beside the point, but I've written enough now that I might as well finish.)
The start of this season has featured more than one catastrophic trend, but the quality of our finishing has to be up there. Eight goals in nine PL games is terrible, and terrible in a new way. Last season we struggled to create lots of chances, and ended up with a very poor figure of 57 goals scored from 38 matches, which was almost dead on our xG (expected goals scored) based on the quality of the chances we had all season. Actually, we outperformed our xG by 0.5 goals, i.e. about 0.01 extra goals per match.
This season we are currently underperforming our xG by 0.73 *per 90 minutes*. So we should already be ~6.5 goals better off, nearly double our actual tally. Extrapolate the current performance over 38 matches and we would be heading for a season where our expected goals are around 70 (which would be a substantial improvement on last season) and our actual goals scored are around 33. In other words, we've been creating more and/or better chances to score goals than last season, while doing a lot worse at converting them.
This could feed into a 'the players have let the manager down' narrative, but I don't think it's as simple as that. Players operate in structures shaped by the manager. For a start, players are more likely to snatch at chances when the pressure is higher, and the overall poor performance means a lot of our chances are falling to players when we're playing catch-up in matches / desperate to break the deadlock / with the burden of knowing we really can't afford to drop yet more points. Contrast that with City's players patience when they go behind / when they miss a chance: they know it's likely they'll get enough chances to win the game.
Carl Anka in the Athletic also makes an interesting point:
"Part of this could be down to Ten Hag orientating so much of United’s play down the wings, where Dalot, Garnacho, Marcus Rashford and others often have to shoot following an extended sprint down the flank. Dalot allowing the ball to have an additional bounce was an attempt to compose himself for a big chance, but tired legs lead to tired minds and tired minds can lead to wayward ball striking." I can think of several excellent chances missed this season at the end of longish sprints.
Anyway, bringing it back to the main news of the day, I guess this is something that RVN will need to grapple with. There has been some improvement in patterns of play to create chances, but we've not seen coldness in execution. Ruud certainly knew something about that as a player. Hopefully he can transmit some of that as manager.
Our finishing
posted on 28/10/24
OP.
Yes.
I was watching an SPL game yesterday, two average sides facing off against one another and they had far better patterns of play than us.
Really nice overlapping from full backs and defence splitting passes in behind. Fantastic movement from forwards.
Actual brain power being used when crossing the ball and picking out a player in the box.
I was quite surprised at the standard and intelligence of some of the players.
Our fullbacks don't really "overlap" and do a diagonal run into the box, they just run forwards and hope for the best, not really any thought behind it.
There hasn't really been any intelligent movement from our front players at all really, or maybe my memory is just so bad that I have forgotten, or maybe I have subconsciously forgotten about those painful games.
I haven't seen a link up like we had with Shaw / Rashford for months.
Most top sides have decent linkup between fullback and winger.
We have absolutely nothing on either side.
posted on 28/10/24
The Haf meister has been telling us this for years now. He has not been wrong.
Just overbearing.
posted on 28/10/24
Anyone have any idea what sort of a manager Ruud is?
posted on 28/10/24
Our chances don't fall to our number 9. That's a blatant tactical / coaching issue.
posted on 28/10/24
comment by Vidicschin (U3584)
posted 18 minutes ago
The Haf meister has been telling us this for years now. He has not been wrong.
Just overbearing.
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Hafi says it whether it's true or not. He'll point to xG when it supports his case. If the stats contradict it, he'll talk about how inaccurate xG can be. You can read too much into these kinds of stats, especially when they reflect a short period of time, but I think it's a reasonable, if imprecise, yardstick. Hafi seems to think that good strikers ought to score from nearly every shot they take, which not even from peak Ronaldo/Messi achieved.
posted on 28/10/24
comment by Tyranny of the majority (SE85) (U21241)
posted 14 seconds ago
Our chances don't fall to our number 9. That's a blatant tactical / coaching issue.
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That is both a problem of the way we play and our main strikers lack of goal scoring instincts.
Greenwood is the only striker we have had for a hell of a long time that showed the instincts of being in the right place at the right time.
posted on 28/10/24
comment by manutd1982 (U6633)
posted 5 minutes ago
Anyone have any idea what sort of a manager Ruud is?
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Another dutch cant from what I understand but third time lucky eh?
posted on 28/10/24
comment by Robb Raygun (U22716)
posted 37 minutes ago
I gave you 5 stars to make up for the weird one star bandits
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Haha. I noticed I've started getting more of these (with no disagreement in the comments) since my age-related increasing reluctance to suffer fools.
posted on 28/10/24
comment by manutd1982 (U6633)
posted 7 minutes ago
Anyone have any idea what sort of a manager Ruud is?
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I listened to one Dutch league watcher saying they weren't at all impressed by his PSV side's patterns of play, and that they underperformed massively given the quality of the squad they had (and the fact that Ajax had imploded after ETH's departure).
It might be that they rely more on René Hake to come up with the tactical nuances, and Ruud is the man with the personality to drive performance levels higher.
posted on 28/10/24
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DBoxp-MIpR4/?igsh=MTYzeWxoNWs3ODlxcw==
Man Utd need world class attackers.