Six Nations Forecasts: England Vs Ireland

Well, the last of our forecasts rolls around, but before we get into reflecting too much there is one game left. Coming into the game England will be on the up following a fine win in France and Ireland should also be confident, playing well after a tight opening loss at home to Wales.

Though England have dominated the fixture historically, winning 57% of all games and 66% of those at Twickenham, in recent times the odds have changed with England winning 5 of the 12 (including one friendly) in the Six Nations era.

Bar the long term absence of Courteney Lawes and Tom Wood - though it has to be questioned what part the latter will now play - England come into the game at pretty much full strength. Brian O'Driscoll's absence is well noted and whilst Sean O'Brien returns the absence of Paul O'Connell leaves Ireland without (arguably) their two greatest ever players - I believe the Scotland game was the first time the Ireland side included neither for 11 years!

The pack is an interesting area for this, and with O'Connell out the talented Irish back row have to have a good game. They seem to have struggled to find the right balance so far, but it is now imperative that they stand up to be counted. In the front five I think England have the advantage, hence the importance of the Irish back row to restore equality - not an easy task against an improving English back row of Croft, Robshaw and Morgan. For the first time in many many years England will feel they have the advantage in the line out due to O'Connell's absence and Croft's strong form and this will take the pressure of England's tactical kicking and apply it to Ireland's - Sexton needs to have a good game!

In the backs England will have seen what Wales did to Ireland and the likes of Morgan, Croft, Tuilagi, Barritt and Ashton will be looking hungrily at Ireland's back line. If they can get past the likes of Ferris & Heaslip they will be looking to brutalise the likes of Bowe & Kearney from the outset, and it is here that England have a clear advantage.

The opportunity for Ireland, I feel, is their experience. If they can hold on to the ball and frustrate England they will get the penalties - and it is critical they convert - were I Declan Kidney I would vastly prefer the wise old cool head of O'Gara to the somewhat "Jekyll and Hyde" Sexton.

St Patricks Day will drive on the Irish, but the need for a home win, and revenge against a side that inflicted a nasty wound on English pride last year will motivate England. In my view, though you should note I'm English (in case you hadn't guessed) I think the latter will outweigh the former - England by 10

Where have I got it right / wrong and what do you think?