My personal conclusions from this are as follows:

(a) Both Rafa and Nole need to outperform Roger by about 1,800 points between now and the USO to prevent him from grabbing #1 spot. I think this could be tight. I do expect Roger to be the weakest of the three during the summer so the question is whether the 1,800 cushion will be enough.

(b) To put it more simply, I think it will quite likely boil down to whether or not Roger wins at least one of the next three slams. If he does, he is in a very good position to reach #1. If he does not he will be very unlikely to get there - as is only fair.

(c) The table shows that Rafa is actually in a pretty good position himself, and he could be very well taking Nole's #1 spot instead of Roger.

(d) I included Andy in this table, but I think the table shows that he is not really in the picture unless he strings together an astounding summer.

Great table and perfect comments. Nothing to add unfortunately....

Except that I believe players not mentioned in that table could have a say, indirectly, in this race to number 1.

SB,I admire your courage with these point calcs!

Yes, Nole has a lot to defend till USO, but after that things start to ease off a bit for him.

I know you want Fed to go back to number one but it will be a daunting task.

Draws will have a lot to do with his chances, staeting with RG.

I really hope Nole wins RG, that would make the rest of the season a lot easier for him.

Right now, it's difficult to see anybody outside the very top to cause any serious damage except be a banana skin like Safin in Wimbledon 2008

Yes, Nole has a lot to defend till USO, but after that things start to ease off a bit for him.
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But so does he.

Regarding Safin, he was not really a banana skin. He played well but nothing special and Safin did not like to play on grass either.

The problem with Djoko is that bar 2011 he was never consistent like the other 2. He has days where he gets bogged down by players like Tomic, Bagdhatis and yuo feel an upset is on the cards. Nadal also gets to fight but we know that over 5 sets he'll still come through.

But though Federer has shown amazing consistency over the years...it doesn't mean he can still book his seat to the semis and 1/4F like he used to do.

He needs healtj, a good draw and fast balls. Then he is guaranteed to do some damage this summer.

"He needs healtj, a good draw and fast balls. Then he is guaranteed to do some damage this summer."

Same for Nole, starting with this RG.

"But so does he."
C'mon Tenez....you know this is nonsense.
Nole was injured last year, and it was a serious injury. With your playing experience you should be less judgmental and understand what toll year like 2011 would take on a player's body.

Nole has always had good last quarter before that.

There's no need to put him in the same basket as Nadal, they are two very different stories.

SB,

how do Olympic points feature in this chart?

With your playing experience you should be less judgmental and understand what toll year like 2011 would take on a player's body.
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They are 2 different stories in teh way they approached the game: one was relying on his fitness for success from day one, the other developed a more complete game ....but once you are in it and you always end up being 2nd best or 3rd....you have no choice but to play "by the rules". In that respect, I won't blame Djoko but to me there is no doubt that he is using the "rules" of teh modern game.

I always refer to that interview he gave in Dec 2010...so revealing imo...and what a timing knowing what happened in 2011.

which interview?

Where he says he could have pushed for number 1 earlier but his "ethics" were more important!

I don't remember that one, but good on him for CONTINUING to keep his integrity.

What integrity ? smashing rackets.

www.espn.co.uk/tennis/sport/story/67063.html

"However Djokovic, who is a popular member on the men's tour, refuses to adopt a 'win at all costs' mentality. He said: "If I have to sacrifice being No. 1 in the world that's OK because I don't want to change my personality. It's more important for me to be a good person than to be a good tennis player."

Every 1 wants 2 b the number 1, like it say's, he changed his racket and overhauled his service technique, change his diet, 2 become a better player, trying 2 give him a edge over is rivals, & it worked, so well play 2 him, but being number 1, means u av more points 2 defend in ur ranking, so it harder staying there, unless u can win 3 slams a year, so far he defended 1 slam, may gain another in 3 weeks time, so, so far so good 4 him.

Ah, remembered that one
Yes, you can read tons between the lines , there.

Yes but I only read one thing: There seem to be shortcuts available to get to number uno!

Yes, and the answer is: hit it to the center of the court...if you dare!

Very naughty, Tenez!

Yes, and the answer is: hit it to the center of the court...if you dare!
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NITB! Nothing new really. I was just surprised to read Djoko being so genuine about it. It's also funny to see the journalists avoiding further digging on the matter. I would have asked him to detail.

So you think Djokovic took steroids to get to number 1?
Nonsense.

I'm sure you would've. I'm nos sure you'd've liked the answer, though, well, you would've but begrudgingly

Anyway, latest news on Nole: he's finished with S. Tacchini and is now sponsored......wait for it........UNIQLO

So, ugly draws to continue ....

LOL! Yes Uniqlo is a popular brand amongst youngsters but I fear he will have to pay his ticket to play on centre courts for now on. I am surprised Nike is not after him. They like winners.

I don't think Nole will ever go with Nike. There's a bit of history there.
Who cares, anyway, so long as he got rid of that wretched Adidas clown stuff.
I do like the way Gasquet looks, he's the only one who's got any style, also Benneteau (cooo, I hate spelling his name)
Fed looks good in anything Polo-shirty.
Shame Murray had to dump Fred Perry, they're my favourite

Anyway, like the title: hot summer ... it's just about started.....at laaaast!!!!!

Gasquet? yes he has a classy style but his dropping shoulder don't do his gear justice.

The Taccini stuff Nole was wearing was pretty ugly too.

Yes Fed's line is nice... but I am sure he guides the designer as they are not trying anything fancy on him.