I'll say what ever Tatter says as I can't log in to my Binary account.

Give it a go Tara, you may do better than you think you will!

What is the probability of guessing all 8 groups correctly in the world cup draw?

Incredibly fcucking small?


Good article but waaaaaay beyond my capabilities/the time I'm willing to spend to work it out for imaginary internet points.

1. France drawn in same group as Brazil.
2. Platini tells them to put that ball back in.
3. England drawn in group based in high population area.
4. English police tell them to put them in the jungle.


12,000,000 - 1

Pot 1-------------Pot 2-------------Pot 3--------------Pot 4
Brazil-------Ivory Coast--------Japan---------Bosnia/ Herze
Spain--------Ghana ---------------Iran--------------Croatia
Germany-----Algeria------South Korea ---------England
Argentina----Nigeria---------Australia------------France
Colombia---Cameroon---United States-------Greece
Belgium--------Chile-----------Mexico---------------Italy
Uruguay-----Ecuador------Costa Rica-------Netherlands
Switzerland--------------------Honduras---------Portugal
-----------------------------------------------------------Russia

Group A
Brazil, Ghana, Japan, Croatia

Group B
Spain, Ecuador, South Korea, Netherlands

Group C
Germany, Chile, France, Honduras

Group D
Argentina, Russia, Australia, Greece

Group E
Colombia, Cameroon, United States, Portugal

Group F
Belgium, Algeria, Mexico, Bosnia/ Herze

Group of Death
Uruguay, Nigeria, Iran, England

Group H
Switzerland, Ivory Coast, Costa Rica, Italy

I don't even know where to start working the odds on this one out.

but for its worth

Group A
Argentina
Cameroon
Japan
Croatia

Group B
Brazil
Ghana
Sth Korea
England

Group C
Uruguay
France
Algeria
Australia

Group D
Spain
Chile
Mexico
Greece

Group E
Colombia
Nigeria
USA
Italy

Group F
Germany
Ecuador
iRan
Bosnia

Group G
Belgium
Ivory Coast
Portugal
Honduras

Group H
Switzerland
Costa Rica
Netherlands
Russia

I messed up somewhere

TIP:

Visualise the draw taking place and break it down into steps.

Comment deleted by Article Creator

Please stay on topic Alone(Bute?).
Why mention MM at every opportunity?

32.3% Brazil, 26% Germany, 13.1% Argentina, 7.8% Spain, 5.4% Belgium, 5.2% England, 2.3% Uruguay, 1.2% Netherlands, 1%Portugal, 0.9% Colombia, 0.9% Italy, 0.6% Iran, 0.6% Nigeria, 0.5% France, 0.3% Chile, 0.3% Bosnia-Hercegovina, 0.3% Honduras, 0.2% Switzerland, 0.2% Ghana, 0.2% Algeria, 0.2 United States, 0.1% Ecuador, 0.1% Greece, 0.1% Mexico, 0.1% Australia, 0.1% Japan, 0% Cameroon, Croatia, Russia, South Korea, Ivory Coast, Costa Rica.

There are 36864 possible combinations (9*8*8*8*8) therefore 36863/1.

Or maybe that should be 36864/1 - or maybe it should be something entirely different altogether.

I'm afraid that's incorrect Greengrocer, sorry.

Larry, I've no idea what you're answering?

I've opened it up to spurs/arsenal fans, see if they fair any better!

^fare

My Attempt

0.111111111 Predict which of the 9 european teams will enter pot 2
0.25 Predict which of the SA teams will be drawn from pot X
0.25 1st SA team in pot 2
0.333333333 2nd SA team in pot 2
0.2 1st Other team in Pot 2
0.25 2nd Other team in Pot 2
0.333333333 3rd Other team in Pot 2
0.25 4th Other team in Pot 2
0.5 5th Other team in Pot 2
0.125 1st team in Pot 3
0.142857143 2nd team in Pot 3
0.166666667 3rd team in Pot 3
0.2 4th team in Pot 3
0.25 5th team in Pot 3
0.333333333 6th team in Pot 3
0.5 7th team in Pot 3
0.125 1st team in Pot 4
0.142857143 2nd team in Pot 4
0.166666667 3rd team in Pot 4
0.2 4th team in Pot 4
0.25 5th team in Pot 4
0.333333333 6th team in Pot 4
0.5 7th team in Pot 4

Final Consideration is that there are two ways of achieving any outcome (ie the european team in pot 2 and corresponding team in pot 4 could be switched)
therefore half the oddds

1 in 168,552,824,832,000

Almost!

Small Error spotted

Second Attempt

0.111111111 Predict which of the 9 european teams will enter pot 2
0.25 Predict which of the SA teams will be drawn from pot X
0.25 1st SA team in pot 2
0.333333333 2nd SA team in pot 2
0.2 1st Other team in Pot 2
0.25 2nd Other team in Pot 2
0.333333333 3rd Other team in Pot 2
0.5 4th Other team in Pot 2
0.125 1st team in Pot 3
0.142857143 2nd team in Pot 3
0.166666667 3rd team in Pot 3
0.2 4th team in Pot 3
0.25 5th team in Pot 3
0.333333333 6th team in Pot 3
0.5 7th team in Pot 3
0.125 1st team in Pot 4
0.142857143 2nd team in Pot 4
0.166666667 3rd team in Pot 4
0.2 4th team in Pot 4
0.25 5th team in Pot 4
0.333333333 6th team in Pot 4
0.5 7th team in Pot 4


Final Consideration is that there are two ways of achieving any outcome (ie the european team in pot 2 and corresponding team in pot 4 could be switched)
therefore half the oddds

42,138,206,208,000

I remember the same kind of poor application of pure maths when predicting Wolves' promotion under Stale

Yes, what did happen to that spreadsheet that had us harvesting more points throughout December 2012 than any other team in the country?

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Tino
Who are you gonna be supporting then mate?
Dressed in your safari suit and pith helmet on June 15th up in The Amazon in Manaus City?

"3. England drawn in group based in high population area.
4. English police tell them to put them in the jungle."

Depressingly accurate unfortunately Larry!