The problem is that you have to allow a recession before you spend. So you are spending to increase demand. What you cannot do is spend in the anticipation of avoiding the recession. A recession is the only thing that can reduce inflation. However that option is only available for a period of time.

Or you end up with stagflation. That is pure evil and can last decades. Ask Japan!

We may already be in that territory because of Truss.

comment by Rosso out here drippin’ in finesse (U17054)
posted 32 minutes ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 11 minutes ago
comment by Rosso out here drippin’ in finesse (U17054)
posted 17 minutes ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 36 minutes ago
comment by Rosso out here drippin’ in finesse (U17054)
posted 16 minutes ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted 2 minutes ago
They are gonna have to U-Turn surely?
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I’ll take that bet, Adders
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Heck I wouldn't even rule them out passing a bill that allows them to overrule the BoE.

If they don't U-Turn is the BoE are gonna have to ramp up rates quick style. Crippling austerity is a shoe in down the road. It will probably be a labour government needing to enact it too.
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Did you ever read Blyth’s book on austerity?

I’m not sure Labour could repeat an Osborne-esque programme. It’d be the end of them politically.
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No I've not read that. Will check it out.
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The stuff on the various financial instruments and how they were used and manipulated in the lead up to the 2007/8 crash was largely over my head, but the subsequent stuff (which he takes far more time on) is carefully, clearly and pretty forensically laid out.

Tough read, but taught me more about macroeconomics than any other book I’ve read.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austerity:_The_History_of_a_Dangerous_Idea
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"The gods that failed" is probably the best book that covers the 2008 crash. I was working as a consultant at a big investment bank at the time and was the very front line of kicking the intra bank trading protocol specifications to enable the trading of MBS and CDOs. I actually can't get insurance to work in the finance sector due to my involvement at the time. By the end it was like pass the parcel as they tried to offload exposure. I was writing code on a Monday that was going live with limited to no testing less than 7 days later, the chairman of the banks saying to me, if this goes wrong it's on me don't worry. By 10am on the Monday morning a billion plus had been traded since I put the code live. It was completely mind boggling.

I remember seeing Credit Default Swaps, CDS for the first time and assumed someone had got the acronym for contract for difference wrong. I was so very wrong.

comment by Jenius99 (U4918)
posted 36 minutes ago
The problem is that you have to allow a recession before you spend. So you are spending to increase demand. What you cannot do is spend in the anticipation of avoiding the recession. A recession is the only thing that can reduce inflation. However that option is only available for a period of time.

Or you end up with stagflation. That is pure evil and can last decades. Ask Japan!

We may already be in that territory because of Truss.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I think you may be right.

comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted about an hour ago
https://www.theguardian.com/business/ng-interactive/2015/apr/29/the-austerity-delusion
It's a long read but it's excellent.
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It's so weird that I remember this article vividly!

comment by Black Hawk (U16342)
posted 4 minutes ago
comment by Admin1 (U1)
posted about an hour ago
https://www.theguardian.com/business/ng-interactive/2015/apr/29/the-austerity-delusion
It's a long read but it's excellent.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
It's so weird that I remember this article vividly!
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It's not one you forget reading. That's for sure

I stopped buying economic books years ago. But made an exception for Krugman's "The return of depression economic" and "This time it's different, a history of financial crashes"

I'm all about chaos and dynamic systems theory. That's my jam now

“I actually can't get insurance to work in the finance sector due to my involvement at the time.”

Holy fack

comment by Rosso out here drippin’ in finesse (U17054)
posted 6 seconds ago
“I actually can't get insurance to work in the finance sector due to my involvement at the time.”

Holy fack
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I've advised in relation to fintech start-ups and chatted with Crypto trading startups. But wouldn't push it much beyond that.

Labour leads by 17%, largest lead for them that we've EVER recorded.

Westminster Voting Intention (28-9 Sept):

Labour 46% (+2)
Conservative 29% (-2)
Liberal Democrat 13% (+2)
Green 4% (-2)
SNP 3% (-1)
Reform UK 4% (+2)
Other 1% (&ndash

Changes +/- 25 Sept

https://twitter.com/redfieldwilton/status/1575515753230438400?s=46&t=_30k2PbhuSZjQMt_zYEYKg

INJECT IT INTO MY COOOOCK

So close to the fabled 20 points

You do have to wonder who this 30% of the country still backing the tories are though

We have a new YouGov poll soon...

It manages to be even more dramatic than the last one

https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1575517296529133568?s=19

Reckon the Tories have snuck back in the lead 😏

You keep injecting onto your peanus you're going to need a flute player to show you how to hold it, could get messy.🥖

US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, referring to the UK: "Business people want to see world leaders taking inflation very seriously. And it's hard to see that out of this new government"

Oh dear

comment by groovyduringthewar (U1054)
posted 5 minutes ago
You keep injecting onto your peanus you're going to need a flute player to show you how to hold it, could get messy.🥖
----------------------------------------------------------------------
How do you feel about the Tories chucking your pension in the bin eh Groovy lad? You might have to get off your fat backside and work for once.

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 54% (+9)
CON: 21% (-7)
LDEM: 7% (-2)
GRN: 6% (-1)

via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Sep
Chgs. w/ 25 Sep

Holy sh!t

BREAKING

Labour has a **33 point** lead over the Tories, Yougov poll for The Times finds

Biggest poll lead recorded since late 1990s

Huge shift of Tory 2019 voters to Labour

Lab 54 (+9)
Con 21 (-7)

What the fooook

My pension is as safe as house's,in fact my houses.
Hope you can pay your mortgage ,you might need a cash injection from daddy.🥒

Which of the following do you think would make the best prime minister?

Liz Truss: 15 (-10)
Keir Starmer: 44 (+12)

How well or badly do you think Liz Truss is doing in her role as prime minister so far?

Well: 15
Badly: 65

Tory conference is tomorrow too

Just 37% of 2019 Tory voters say they'd vote for Truss' Tories

NEW Westminster Voting Intention. Largest Labour lead (21 points) we've ever recorded.

CON 28% (-5)
LAB 49% (+6)
LD 11% (nc)
SNP 5% (+1)
GRE 1% (-2)
Others 7% (+2)
*Changes in comparison to Survation polling September 5th 2022

https://twitter.com/survation/status/1575522804644007941?s=46&t=ejYtyqolPqDj32uvZ0VrVQ

INJECT IT ALLLLL

Deep breath Arab pal, your peen won't survive this...

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 54% (+9)
CON: 21% (-7)
LDM: 7% (-2)
GRN: 6% (-1)
RFM: 4% (+1)

Via @YouGov, 28-29 Sep.
Changes w/ 23-25 Sep.

THIRTY THREE POINT LEAD.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election

This is very much 97 levels now

Labour’s conference has had a very good bounce it seems