Free hit for us tonight. Tonights game wont define our season. 2 wins from 6 I think will be enough to be entered into the Cup competition. Theres a lot of teams just behind us that have to play each other. Millwall's last 4 games are very tasty....Sheff Utd,Fulham,Boro and Villa. Are we capable of winning tonight? Yep cos we are

comment by I'm not Spartacus, resilience and charact... (U4603)
posted about an hour ago
May I quote you on that if we don't 3R. Intuition is very rarely right.
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Yes of course Spart. Feel free.

Backo knows y'know.

wgt

Wrote that in lower case, as I sad it in a wobbly voice xx

My intuition tells me we are going to be beaten tonight. Intuition is often right, Spart, if it corresponds with the likeliest probability. I hope that the feeling 3R has in his water is correct of of course, but I fear it may have a different origin on this occasion.

Too rational by half Vidal. I prescribe for you a bit of make believe.

comment by thriceramdini12 (U21438)
posted 10 minutes ago
Too rational by half Vidal. I prescribe for you a bit of make believe.
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...easily obtained by reading a few back issues of Mapdini's "Match Reports".

Read Sutherland on irrationality Vidal. He shows how intuition is very rarely right. It is also instructive in that it demonstrates that most of the medical profession has very little idea on how to interpret medical statistics and makes incorrect decisions on a regular basis.

When you are talking about a binary decision, intuition may be often correct, Spart, surely.

Decision-making in medicine is of particular interest to me. It isn’t based on intuition as such but bias of different types has a massive influence. There is a great temptation to make a decision based on an anecdotal experience, particularly an adverse one. We get scarred by bad outcomes and remember them far more than good ones. It tends to lead to avoidance of risk. Another common thing in medicine is “the limitless bravery of the non-combatant” where doctors are very happy to advocate risky treatments or procedures that they will not be personally responsible for. Multi-disciplinary meetings are very prevalent now in hospitals and although generally a good thing they often lead to over-aggressive treatment decisions with very little chance of success. Sometimes the need “to be seen to be doing something” is a powerful motivator.

Statistics are naturally useful when trying to help patients making decisions about their treatment, but not the answer to everything. I could tell you that a certain procedure might overall have a mortality of, say, 1%, and give a percentage risk of other adverse outcomes based on available evidence. If you are the patient you will have to take that on board and consider the alternatives, including the likely outcome of no treatment at all. There is a small risk of a fatal anaphylactic reaction to an antibiotic, for example, and antibiotics are ineffective against viruses. However, there are people around who intuitively feel that such a drug will help them. Gut feeling is a powerful determinant in decision-making and even people who profess to have a logical mind are not immune from it, don’t you agree?

comment by I'm not Spartacus, resilience and character (U4603)
posted 2 hours, 52 minutes ago
May I quote you on that if we don't 3R. Intuition is very rarely right.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Burnley and Cardiff spring to mind never mind Oscar.

Meanwhile, good news for RFB. His eponymous thoroughfare is to retain its name.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/11/victory-bell-end-council-drops-plans-change-name-street/amp/?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true

Examples of intuition vs evidence based logical conclusions..

Peter Sutcliffe was virtually walking round with neon sign saying I am the Yorkshire ripper but coppers intuition meant they wasted time and effort chasing Wearside Jack leading to further unnecessary deaths. Intuition is not harmless.

Dentistry, research has shown flossing makes no difference but dentists still recommend you floss.

Diet, the medical profession is still pushing 5 a day because they intuitively feel it is right even though all the evidence shows it makes no difference whatsoever. The same goes for salt in a diet.

I do recommend you read the book though Vidal if you are interested in decision making. Irrationality by Stuart Sutherland.

Banned me for a sensible comment last night.

Let me away with pi$$ take ones though.

He is for sure is a thick tree trunk.

comment by I'm not Spartacus, resilience and character (U4603)
posted about a minute ago
Examples of intuition vs evidence based logical conclusions..

Peter Sutcliffe was virtually walking round with neon sign saying I am the Yorkshire ripper but coppers intuition meant they wasted time and effort chasing Wearside Jack leading to further unnecessary deaths. Intuition is not harmless.

Dentistry, research has shown flossing makes no difference but dentists still recommend you floss.

Diet, the medical profession is still pushing 5 a day because they intuitively feel it is right even though all the evidence shows it makes no difference whatsoever. The same goes for salt in a diet.

I do recommend you read the book though Vidal if you are interested in decision making. Irrationality by Stuart Sutherland.



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You have way too much on your time mate.

But I did enjoy that.

I do at the moment Igor but on holiday again next week.

I may well give it a read Spart, thanks for the recommendation. I see a great deal of bias in your own posts. You are relentlessly anti-medicine so you will quote a few examples that suit your prejudice rather than the much larger proportion where decision-making and medical advice is evidence-based. I think we all tend to see our own opinions as rational and those of others as whimsical.

comment by I'm not Spartacus, resilience and character (U4603)
posted about a minute ago
I do at the moment Igor but on holiday again next week.
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That's means work.....right?

comment by lastapostleofvidal (U1491)
posted about a minute ago
I may well give it a read Spart, thanks for the recommendation. I see a great deal of bias in your own posts. You are relentlessly anti-medicine so you will quote a few examples that suit your prejudice rather than the much larger proportion where decision-making and medical advice is evidence-based. I think we all tend to see our own opinions as rational and those of others as whimsical.
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I'm currently lying back a couple of wet slow cooked t-bags over my eyes.

It's bliss....chat later.

Should really read soaked*

Also, re the five a day...”all the evidence shows it makes no difference whatsoever”. Available evidence is that the more fruit and veg you eat, the less the risk of many diseases, particularly cancers and cardiovascular.

https://www.nhs.uk/news/food-and-diet/five-a-day-of-fruit-and-veg-is-good-but-10-is-better/

The evidence isn't there Vidal. How many people eat 10 different vegetables a day? It is very difficult to carry out a controlled experiment and taking statistical data from general populations has too many variables to make a valid conclusion.

Vidal, check your e mails quick. You will find you have won a £5 voucher, like all people who were in the East Stand for the Sunderland game, which will be of no use to you whatsoever.

comment by lastapostleofvidal (U1491)
posted 1 hour, 13 minutes ago
Meanwhile, good news for RFB. His eponymous thoroughfare is to retain its name.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/11/victory-bell-end-council-drops-plans-change-name-street/amp/?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true
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Really apt at the moment, because if you scroll to the bottom of the page there is a photograph of Trump.

........... and another doggy story that could be put to good use at the 5hitty ground:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/11/south-korean-kills-neighbours-noisy-corgi-feeds-unwittingly/