Back to your earlier post Vidals. Do you think we're over hump day in terms of Covid??
Knight looks a class act 2W.
2W, Vidal said there wouldn't be a second wave, I said we wouldn't be fined or docked points, so better off asking me for predictions. I say it will carry on rising for the near future, R numbers are in the region of 1.5 and the graph is approaching vertical.
I want to know if anyone who had it before has caught it again.
Going for a Covid 19 test next week before they finally operate. Strangely enough infection rates in Doncaster are far higher now than when they cancelled my operation in early April.
I thought there would be increases in cases but I don’t think there will be a “second wave” as in a similar number of deaths to the original outbreak. As I have said before, I think that there is a relative ceiling of numbers of infections, maybe 15-20% of the population. Lockdown might delay this being reached but unless this can be delayed indefinitely or until a vaccine arrives then it serves little purpose and causes greater harm to health and to society. Saying the graph is approaching vertical is hysterical nonsense.As far as I know there has been one case in the world of a “second infection”, in Hong Kong, but that person had no symptoms at all on the second occasion, only testing positive with a different mutation of the virus.
My guess was at the start of the pandemic that based on a maximum infection rate of 15-20% and a mortality of under 0.5% (this based on available evidence from other countries at the start) that we might see around 50,000 deaths directly from the virus. This seems about right. In a bad flu year we get around 30,000 deaths by comparison. There will be far more than 50,000 additional deaths indirectly caused by lockdown and the suspension of health care for other conditions, as well as other harmful effects on health which are less easy to measure, together with the social and economic harm that will last for years.
To answer your question Wellies, yes that’s what I think, at least in countries that have had substantial outbreaks first time around. I think there will be panic and hysteria but there will be a small second hump in this country. In countries or areas that have escaped to some extent so far then they are at risk of the same sort of thing happening as in the worst-hit countries. Everywhere though, no matter the government tactics have been, the infection has flattened off.
comment by Spart-Derby really are the best says red dog. (U4603)
posted 22 minutes ago
2W, Vidal said there wouldn't be a second wave, I said we wouldn't be fined or docked points, so better off asking me for predictions. I say it will carry on rising for the near future, R numbers are in the region of 1.5 and the graph is approaching vertical.
I want to know if anyone who had it before has caught it again.
Going for a Covid 19 test next week before they finally operate. Strangely enough infection rates in Doncaster are far higher now than when they cancelled my operation in early April.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Oh shut up you fool, it wouldn't take much to pick through the crap you've posted over the years and dissect the amount of mistakes you've predicted.
Don't start me you jumped up so and so.
I feel an antibiotics debate coming on again.
Thnx Vidals n of course Spart. I'm a bit confused though. So herd immunity was a bad thing at the first outbreak but now is good? Is that cos the maximum infection rate has decreased??
They thought that in order to have a significant proportion of the herd becoming immune that hundreds of thousands would need to die, therefore the plan to restrict infection as far as possible. I never believed the projections which were based on around 80-100% of the population catching the virus. From the early evidence in closed communities, large outbreaks only resulted in rates of around 20% infection. The Diamond Princess cruise ship was an example.
Once it became apparent the NHS would not be overwhelmed then we could have let it take its course. This sounds brutal but overall less harm would have been done health wise and we would now be in a far better position and able to face the usual winter challenges without this still hanging around. Lockdown may have saved a few lives and delayed the deaths of some more by a few months but by focusing on this one illness to the exclusion of others it has cost the lives of a great many more.
comment by lastapostleofvidal (U1491)
posted 3 minutes ago
They thought that in order to have a significant proportion of the herd becoming immune that hundreds of thousands would need to die, therefore the plan to restrict infection as far as possible. I never believed the projections which were based on around 80-100% of the population catching the virus. From the early evidence in closed communities, large outbreaks only resulted in rates of around 20% infection. The Diamond Princess cruise ship was an example.
Once it became apparent the NHS would not be overwhelmed then we could have let it take its course. This sounds brutal but overall less harm would have been done health wise and we would now be in a far better position and able to face the usual winter challenges without this still hanging around. Lockdown may have saved a few lives and delayed the deaths of some more by a few months but by focusing on this one illness to the exclusion of others it has cost the lives of a great many more.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
.............. and it didn't get Spart, (well not yet at least).
Imagine being stuck with that for 14 days.
Covid would be looking for a keyhole to get out.
Quote Vidal
Once it became apparent the NHS would not be overwhelmed then we could have let it take its course. This sounds brutal but overall less harm would have been done health wise and we would now be in a far better position and able to face the usual winter challenges without this still hanging around. Lockdown may have saved a few lives and delayed the deaths of some more by a few months but by focusing on this one illness to the exclusion of others it has cost the lives of a great many more.
------------------------------------------------------------
Has it cost the lives of a great many more? Once the initial spike was over the death rate returned to slightly below the expected number. In fact in the West country was locked down but didn't have a large number of infections the number who have died this year is actually fewer than the previous year. Maybe because there have been fewer medical interventions due to lock down.
It will take a few years for many of the effects of lockdown to become apparent. I could give you thousands of examples but just one from yesterday: a patient was referred at the start of the pandemic with anaemia to the colorectal department because it was thought he might have bowel cancer as the cause. His GP hadn’t seen him because they have been told to avoid face to face consultation. Similarly at the hospital they have been told to avoid seeing patients in clinic if possible. So a colonoscopy was arranged which didn’t show a cancer so he was discharged back to his GP. The patient and his GP were reassured. He has been pottering along getting worse but keeping away from people as instructed but eventually after a few months he got back in touch with his GP. He has now got advanced stomach cancer which can’t be cured, though it might have been a few months ago. That had been the cause of his anaemia not the bottom end. When he was finally asked directly he admitted he had been having indigestion issues.q
You can blame various people for this if you want but if you have a system that stops doctors seeing patients properly, taking a full medical history and examining them, then you are setting yourself up for this sort of thing. As well as this, patients with cardiovascular disease and various other conditions will have their assessments and investigations delayed by months or years, so they won’t get on the right treatment as soon as they should. So there will be heart attacks and strokes that will occur over the next few years that could have been prevented had this all been done sooner. There are a great many knock-on effects to the general health of the population. Your own operation has been delayed. This probably won’t make a big difference and of course I wish you well but for some patients hose few months might mean that they are just slightly older and more frail and more likely to suffer adverse consequences to surgery. Control of long-term conditions such as diabetes and high blood pressure has inevitably been compromised and will ultimately lead to an increase in later life complications such as renal failure, blindness, stroke, gangrene of the feet and so on. I could go on! But it’s match day.
So is is. A glorious day here on Lewis, bright and cold. Off to the hills...................
I'm going for a run .......
I’m off to do an extra shift at work. I’ll be looking through a few of the CT scans that have been delayed by the NHS shutdown. There are thousands and it will take us and other Trusts at least 1-2 years to catch up. Who knows what horrors I will find that have lain hidden for months. This week I helped remove a stone from a kidney in a young woman. A few months ago we would have got the whole thing out but it had grown to the point where this wasn’t possible and a few fragments remain. These will grow and need more operations for the rest of her life and eventually the kidney will lose all of its function. Many of the patients with arterial issues in their legs have progressed to the point where I can no longer fix them up with an angioplasty. They often are not fit enough for a major bypass operation so many will instead end up with amputations. And so on. Catch you all later.
Have a good day at work Vidal but reflect that the policy you would have proposed would have increased the probability of the people who have had treatment delayed, catching the disease. One thing we are sure of about this virus is it is most lethal to those with pre-existing medical conditions.
A general rule in any pandemic is avoid Doctors and hospitals.
What policy would I have proposed?
I am sure that I speak for everyone in wishing Olivia Newton-John a very happy birthday.
What have you got against Ricky Tomlinson, Tracy Thorn, and Serena Williams of course? Do these people not matter? It just seems a bit suspicious that the only person you are prepared to wish a happy birthday to is the blonde white girl. Just saying.
comment by lastapostleofvidal (U1491)
posted 3 minutes ago
What have you got against Ricky Tomlinson, Tracy Thorn, and Serena Williams of course? Do these people not matter? It just seems a bit suspicious that the only person you are prepared to wish a happy birthday to is the blonde white girl. Just saying.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Those leggings though!
comment by HebridesRam (U2909)
posted 28 minutes ago
I am sure that I speak for everyone in wishing Olivia Newton-John a very happy birthday.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
My first love
Morning all
I may not be here for the game as I have to go to Birmingham for tonight's shift...
comment by Jorvik Lothbrok (U1369)
posted 2 seconds ago
Morning all
I may not be here for the game as I have to go to Birmingham for tonight's shift...
----------------------------------------------------------------------
We'll miss your score updates, Jorv
But they're not so essential today, as 'they' played last night
Sign in if you want to comment
Derby County 0 - 4 Blackburn Rovers
Page 2 of 21
6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10
posted on 25/9/20
Back to your earlier post Vidals. Do you think we're over hump day in terms of Covid??
posted on 25/9/20
Knight looks a class act 2W.
posted on 25/9/20
2W, Vidal said there wouldn't be a second wave, I said we wouldn't be fined or docked points, so better off asking me for predictions. I say it will carry on rising for the near future, R numbers are in the region of 1.5 and the graph is approaching vertical.
I want to know if anyone who had it before has caught it again.
Going for a Covid 19 test next week before they finally operate. Strangely enough infection rates in Doncaster are far higher now than when they cancelled my operation in early April.
posted on 25/9/20
I thought there would be increases in cases but I don’t think there will be a “second wave” as in a similar number of deaths to the original outbreak. As I have said before, I think that there is a relative ceiling of numbers of infections, maybe 15-20% of the population. Lockdown might delay this being reached but unless this can be delayed indefinitely or until a vaccine arrives then it serves little purpose and causes greater harm to health and to society. Saying the graph is approaching vertical is hysterical nonsense.As far as I know there has been one case in the world of a “second infection”, in Hong Kong, but that person had no symptoms at all on the second occasion, only testing positive with a different mutation of the virus.
My guess was at the start of the pandemic that based on a maximum infection rate of 15-20% and a mortality of under 0.5% (this based on available evidence from other countries at the start) that we might see around 50,000 deaths directly from the virus. This seems about right. In a bad flu year we get around 30,000 deaths by comparison. There will be far more than 50,000 additional deaths indirectly caused by lockdown and the suspension of health care for other conditions, as well as other harmful effects on health which are less easy to measure, together with the social and economic harm that will last for years.
posted on 25/9/20
To answer your question Wellies, yes that’s what I think, at least in countries that have had substantial outbreaks first time around. I think there will be panic and hysteria but there will be a small second hump in this country. In countries or areas that have escaped to some extent so far then they are at risk of the same sort of thing happening as in the worst-hit countries. Everywhere though, no matter the government tactics have been, the infection has flattened off.
posted on 25/9/20
comment by Spart-Derby really are the best says red dog. (U4603)
posted 22 minutes ago
2W, Vidal said there wouldn't be a second wave, I said we wouldn't be fined or docked points, so better off asking me for predictions. I say it will carry on rising for the near future, R numbers are in the region of 1.5 and the graph is approaching vertical.
I want to know if anyone who had it before has caught it again.
Going for a Covid 19 test next week before they finally operate. Strangely enough infection rates in Doncaster are far higher now than when they cancelled my operation in early April.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Oh shut up you fool, it wouldn't take much to pick through the crap you've posted over the years and dissect the amount of mistakes you've predicted.
Don't start me you jumped up so and so.
posted on 25/9/20
I feel an antibiotics debate coming on again.
Thnx Vidals n of course Spart. I'm a bit confused though. So herd immunity was a bad thing at the first outbreak but now is good? Is that cos the maximum infection rate has decreased??
posted on 25/9/20
They thought that in order to have a significant proportion of the herd becoming immune that hundreds of thousands would need to die, therefore the plan to restrict infection as far as possible. I never believed the projections which were based on around 80-100% of the population catching the virus. From the early evidence in closed communities, large outbreaks only resulted in rates of around 20% infection. The Diamond Princess cruise ship was an example.
Once it became apparent the NHS would not be overwhelmed then we could have let it take its course. This sounds brutal but overall less harm would have been done health wise and we would now be in a far better position and able to face the usual winter challenges without this still hanging around. Lockdown may have saved a few lives and delayed the deaths of some more by a few months but by focusing on this one illness to the exclusion of others it has cost the lives of a great many more.
posted on 25/9/20
comment by lastapostleofvidal (U1491)
posted 3 minutes ago
They thought that in order to have a significant proportion of the herd becoming immune that hundreds of thousands would need to die, therefore the plan to restrict infection as far as possible. I never believed the projections which were based on around 80-100% of the population catching the virus. From the early evidence in closed communities, large outbreaks only resulted in rates of around 20% infection. The Diamond Princess cruise ship was an example.
Once it became apparent the NHS would not be overwhelmed then we could have let it take its course. This sounds brutal but overall less harm would have been done health wise and we would now be in a far better position and able to face the usual winter challenges without this still hanging around. Lockdown may have saved a few lives and delayed the deaths of some more by a few months but by focusing on this one illness to the exclusion of others it has cost the lives of a great many more.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
.............. and it didn't get Spart, (well not yet at least).
posted on 26/9/20
Imagine being stuck with that for 14 days.
Covid would be looking for a keyhole to get out.
posted on 26/9/20
Mornin' y'all
posted on 26/9/20
Quote Vidal
Once it became apparent the NHS would not be overwhelmed then we could have let it take its course. This sounds brutal but overall less harm would have been done health wise and we would now be in a far better position and able to face the usual winter challenges without this still hanging around. Lockdown may have saved a few lives and delayed the deaths of some more by a few months but by focusing on this one illness to the exclusion of others it has cost the lives of a great many more.
------------------------------------------------------------
Has it cost the lives of a great many more? Once the initial spike was over the death rate returned to slightly below the expected number. In fact in the West country was locked down but didn't have a large number of infections the number who have died this year is actually fewer than the previous year. Maybe because there have been fewer medical interventions due to lock down.
posted on 26/9/20
It will take a few years for many of the effects of lockdown to become apparent. I could give you thousands of examples but just one from yesterday: a patient was referred at the start of the pandemic with anaemia to the colorectal department because it was thought he might have bowel cancer as the cause. His GP hadn’t seen him because they have been told to avoid face to face consultation. Similarly at the hospital they have been told to avoid seeing patients in clinic if possible. So a colonoscopy was arranged which didn’t show a cancer so he was discharged back to his GP. The patient and his GP were reassured. He has been pottering along getting worse but keeping away from people as instructed but eventually after a few months he got back in touch with his GP. He has now got advanced stomach cancer which can’t be cured, though it might have been a few months ago. That had been the cause of his anaemia not the bottom end. When he was finally asked directly he admitted he had been having indigestion issues.q
You can blame various people for this if you want but if you have a system that stops doctors seeing patients properly, taking a full medical history and examining them, then you are setting yourself up for this sort of thing. As well as this, patients with cardiovascular disease and various other conditions will have their assessments and investigations delayed by months or years, so they won’t get on the right treatment as soon as they should. So there will be heart attacks and strokes that will occur over the next few years that could have been prevented had this all been done sooner. There are a great many knock-on effects to the general health of the population. Your own operation has been delayed. This probably won’t make a big difference and of course I wish you well but for some patients hose few months might mean that they are just slightly older and more frail and more likely to suffer adverse consequences to surgery. Control of long-term conditions such as diabetes and high blood pressure has inevitably been compromised and will ultimately lead to an increase in later life complications such as renal failure, blindness, stroke, gangrene of the feet and so on. I could go on! But it’s match day.
posted on 26/9/20
So is is. A glorious day here on Lewis, bright and cold. Off to the hills...................
posted on 26/9/20
I'm going for a run .......
posted on 26/9/20
I’m off to do an extra shift at work. I’ll be looking through a few of the CT scans that have been delayed by the NHS shutdown. There are thousands and it will take us and other Trusts at least 1-2 years to catch up. Who knows what horrors I will find that have lain hidden for months. This week I helped remove a stone from a kidney in a young woman. A few months ago we would have got the whole thing out but it had grown to the point where this wasn’t possible and a few fragments remain. These will grow and need more operations for the rest of her life and eventually the kidney will lose all of its function. Many of the patients with arterial issues in their legs have progressed to the point where I can no longer fix them up with an angioplasty. They often are not fit enough for a major bypass operation so many will instead end up with amputations. And so on. Catch you all later.
posted on 26/9/20
Have a good day at work Vidal but reflect that the policy you would have proposed would have increased the probability of the people who have had treatment delayed, catching the disease. One thing we are sure of about this virus is it is most lethal to those with pre-existing medical conditions.
A general rule in any pandemic is avoid Doctors and hospitals.
posted on 26/9/20
What policy would I have proposed?
posted on 26/9/20
I am sure that I speak for everyone in wishing Olivia Newton-John a very happy birthday.
posted on 26/9/20
What have you got against Ricky Tomlinson, Tracy Thorn, and Serena Williams of course? Do these people not matter? It just seems a bit suspicious that the only person you are prepared to wish a happy birthday to is the blonde white girl. Just saying.
posted on 26/9/20
comment by lastapostleofvidal (U1491)
posted 3 minutes ago
What have you got against Ricky Tomlinson, Tracy Thorn, and Serena Williams of course? Do these people not matter? It just seems a bit suspicious that the only person you are prepared to wish a happy birthday to is the blonde white girl. Just saying.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Those leggings though!
posted on 26/9/20
You got chills, Scouse?
posted on 26/9/20
comment by HebridesRam (U2909)
posted 28 minutes ago
I am sure that I speak for everyone in wishing Olivia Newton-John a very happy birthday.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
My first love
posted on 26/9/20
Morning all
I may not be here for the game as I have to go to Birmingham for tonight's shift...
posted on 26/9/20
comment by Jorvik Lothbrok (U1369)
posted 2 seconds ago
Morning all
I may not be here for the game as I have to go to Birmingham for tonight's shift...
----------------------------------------------------------------------
We'll miss your score updates, Jorv
But they're not so essential today, as 'they' played last night
Page 2 of 21
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