Given the current context top four is very doable and it would be a disappointment/failure if we miss out (unless a rival goes on a very serious winning streak maybe)
comment by Two Balls, One Saka (U19684)
posted 23 seconds ago
Given the current context top four is very doable and it would be a disappointment/failure if we miss out (unless a rival goes on a very serious winning streak maybe)
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I wouldn't go as far to say it's 'failure', particularly as none of us expected us to get it at the start of the season and even after the January window. But it would be slightly disappointing considering how underwhelming the other teams have been.
I still maintain Man Utd should absolutely be getting top-4 as a minimum requirement and it would be an absolute disgrace if they don't. They finished 2nd last year and added Varane, Ronaldo and Sancho to their squad. They have a squad littered with attacking players. They shouldn't be struggling this much.
That said, if, at any point, they make it click, I fully expect them to get 4th.
Spurs and Arsenal are at quite a similar level comparatively, but Conte is a superior manager to Arteta, and that's why I think they have a slight edge over us.
So, if we do somehow get 4th, that would be a big overachievement IMO.
comment by Samir (U2630)
posted 15 minutes ago
comment by Two Balls, One Saka (U19684)
posted 23 seconds ago
Given the current context top four is very doable and it would be a disappointment/failure if we miss out (unless a rival goes on a very serious winning streak maybe)
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I wouldn't go as far to say it's 'failure', particularly as none of us expected us to get it at the start of the season and even after the January window. But it would be slightly disappointing considering how underwhelming the other teams have been.
I still maintain Man Utd should absolutely be getting top-4 as a minimum requirement and it would be an absolute disgrace if they don't. They finished 2nd last year and added Varane, Ronaldo and Sancho to their squad. They have a squad littered with attacking players. They shouldn't be struggling this much.
That said, if, at any point, they make it click, I fully expect them to get 4th.
Spurs and Arsenal are at quite a similar level comparatively, but Conte is a superior manager to Arteta, and that's why I think they have a slight edge over us.
So, if we do somehow get 4th, that would be a big overachievement IMO.
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On paper that all sounds fine but United are playing terribly and Spurs are wobbling. Both started so poorly they sacked their managers
We have a huge chance because of how fecked up our rivals for the spot are
Agree that failure probably isn't the right word though, unless the others continue to do really poorly and we still don't make it
I think when considering what is an acceptable finish right now you've got to take all the different variables into consideration. Firstly opponents wise Tottenham don't seem competitive right now, United have some good players but not a good team. We along with West Ham have the most settled teams. So in that respect we are ahead of Tottenham and United. Next comes what sort of condition each team is in and how fatigue will affect teams coming to the end of the season. Unquestionably we are in the best position we will have played less games than anyone else. The two main negatives for us is do we have enough goals in the team to win enough matches and secondly is having Arteta as manager going to be a negative as the jury is still out with him. If you put all that together then if we don't finish 4th or come very close its a big disappointment and Arteta and Edu's positions should come under scrutiny
I expected us to finish in the top 4 at the start of the season.
To sum up what's been said above, the battle for 4th this year is similar the to the title battle in 2016. All of the favourites had problems and Leicester took full advantage.
We need to take full advantage this season, because it won't get any easier afterwards.
A lot of posters on this thread in my opinion have fallen into the trap of justifying finishing 8th twice. And then building on that. But thats NOT what the aim of the so called 'project' was sold to us.
Lets assume that the aim of the club is to improve every season:
Emery finished 5th after competing for the top 4.
He dropped the following season and Arteta completed the season finishing 8th.
Assuming we improved the squad by getting rid of dead wood, as the fans kept on saying we should have finished in the top 6 last season. However we finished 8th. We then outspent every other club, again improving on the squad.
So if we assume our finish of 8th was an aberration we should be expected to finish in the top 4.
It doesn't matter what the rest are doing because we are supposed to be improving the squad every season! Or whats the point of Arteta and Edu?
I'm sorry J99 but you're talking absolute nonsense. I've had this conversation with you before and I've told you to stop parroting that line because it is inherently flawed.
Of course it matters what the rest are doing. What a ridiculous comment. They ALL have the intention to improve their squad every season too. Do you think our rivals are going to sit still and just let us improve?
Chelsea, City and Liverpool were already superior to us, had better managers than us and are in superior financial positions to us. We have no right to finish ahead of either of those teams.
As mentioned previously, Man United finished 2nd and then added Sancho, Ronaldo and Varane - players who we cannot attract because the clout and financial power United have supersedes anything Arsenal can do.
It is not 'lowering expectations' to say we shouldn't be finishing ahead of those 4 clubs. It is pragmatism.
Spurs have an objectively better manager than us in Conte. Our squads aren't too different though. Which is why I personally think they may finish ahead of us, but if they didn't, it wouldn't be a surprised.
We spent the most money out of every other club (in terms of transfer fees) because we needed to try and close the gap. Chelsea, City and Liverpool didn't need to spend as much because they already have squads filled with quality players.
Right now, we are in a better position than most of us expected due to the underperformance of Spurs and Man United (although West Ham are performing above their level).
If, say, we finish 5th, then whilst it is not ideal, it is clearly an improvement on 8th, and is generally in line with where many people expected us to finish given the strength of the clubs above us.
You can deny it all you want, but getting 4th would be an overachievement for Arsenal.
5th would be par.
In turn it would mean no excuses next season, top 4 or door for Arteta.
comment by Samir (U2630)
posted 38 minutes ago
Of course it matters what the rest are doing. What a ridiculous comment. They ALL have the intention to improve their squad every season too. Do you think our rivals are going to sit still and just let us improve?
Chelsea, City and Liverpool were already superior to us, had better managers than us and are in superior financial positions to us. We have no right to finish ahead of either of those teams.
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Why are Chelsea and Liverpool superior to us? We have spent more money than them for the last 5 years. Actually 10 years. By quite a bit.
So obviously its because we have spent poorly and been managed poorly. (like you say)
Then how do you hold those people to account if every year you repeat that they are better than us, well because of the past so have an advantage. It can't be the fault of the present lot.
So examine it a bit more deeply. We were actually 5th under Emery. But have gone backwards since then. We were told that we are improving the squad since then, why shouldn't we expect to see that? Why is finishing in the top 4 seen as an overachievement?
As mentioned previously, Man United finished 2nd and then added Sancho, Ronaldo and Varane - players who we cannot attract because the clout and financial power United have supersedes anything Arsenal can do.
------------------------------------------------
And how have they played?
Was that good spending or wasting money like we have in the past?
If, say, we finish 5th, then whilst it is not ideal, it is clearly an improvement on 8th, and is generally in line with where many people expected us to finish given the strength of the clubs above us.
-------------------------------------------
And why was that an expectation if not for finishing 8th the season before? The season before that we finished 5th? Was that an overachievement under Emery? If so was he discarded after the first blip?
Yes, a lot of pundits rated Spurs, Man Utd higher than us. But they are not doing better than us and West Ham are competing with us. Is that based on how the players are doing and the level they are at (they have changed manager as well btw and still not doing any better) or is it they are 'under achieving' based on the embarrassment of assessing player quality based on hype over reality?
After the first 3 games I expected to finish 10th. After the City game (despite the fact that we lost) I thought we were nailed on for fourth and should push for 3rd. Now I think it will be ridiculously tight - no one team out of WHU/Man U/Spurs/Arsenal/Wolves has managed to pull away from the pack, as each team keeps messing up when the opportunity to do that arises.
I have high hopes of finishing fourth because our two true contenders (United and Spurs) are in laughable form at the moment and we have a fairly kind run of games right now (excluding Wolves at home which will be a challenge, and arguably Brighton /Palace at home too).
Will be delighted with 4th and somewhat disappointed with 5. I have 0 interested in yet another year of Europa.
comment by NorthLondonGunner (U22220)
posted 14 minutes ago
After the first 3 games I expected to finish 10th. After the City game (despite the fact that we lost) I thought we were nailed on for fourth and should push for 3rd. Now I think it will be ridiculously tight - no one team out of WHU/Man U/Spurs/Arsenal/Wolves has managed to pull away from the pack, as each team keeps messing up when the opportunity to do that arises.
I have high hopes of finishing fourth because our two true contenders (United and Spurs) are in laughable form at the moment and we have a fairly kind run of games right now (excluding Wolves at home which will be a challenge, and arguably Brighton /Palace at home too).
Will be delighted with 4th and somewhat disappointed with 5. I have 0 interested in yet another year of Europa.
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Pretty much this. It's not just that the other teams are more likely to improve next season, it's also that Newcastle will inflate the market, as they probably will stay up, so even if they don't pose an immediate threat next season, they will indirectly hinder us in the transfer market.
J99,
What do you mean why are Chelsea and Liverpool superior to us? Chelsea have won the most trophies out of any English club in the last 20 years. They are current European champions. They have also won every trophy there is to win. And they have spent more than us overall since 2019.
Liverpool were CL winners in 2019 and PL winners in 2020. They are CL regulars, competitive side and have a top manager. They are clearly superior to us.
I am not saying the current Arsenal hierarchy have not made mistakes. I am saying when clubs who are already much better than us subsequently take steps to improve further, then it makes our task of catching up more complicated. That's not to say it can't be done, but it makes the task harder because of how competitive it is. So you dismissing what other clubs are doing is asinine. Because it's totally relevant.
Emery had us in 12th when he was sacked, by the way. He finished 5th (which, if we look at the statistics, was very flukey and we vastly outperformed xG and xGA). This does not mean Arteta was the right appointment, but if you're trying to insinuate we should have kept Emery, I vehemently disagree with you.
I've already explained to you why 4th is an overachievement. There are 4 clubs who have better managers and better squads than us (on paper). 1 of those clubs are underperforming right now, which is why the door is open for that coveted 4th spot.
Last season, I expected us to finish 6th-7th because I really did not rate a lot of our players. We finished 8th. It was below expectation, but not massively.
With the players we have now, there is an incremental improvement. However, there isn't enough of an improvement for me to believe we are good enough for 4th. And we have the weakest set of strikers out of all the contenders, which puts us at a disadvantage.
Man United are underachieving for a variety of reasons, but many people at the beginning of the season had them as contenders for the title based on their transfer activity. We cannot forget this just because events haven't panned out that way since then.
Would I be disappointed if we don't get 4th? Given how the season has gone, a little bit.
Does this mean it is an abject failure of a season if we finish 5th? No. It is par for the course, considering the state of our squad.
I also don't think people should be so dismissive of the Europa League. We have never actually won it before, but we still have a better chance of winning that than the Champions League.
Samir, there is a lot to breakdown and I'll do it when I have a little more time.
Just to ask you.
Arteta's contract is coming up for renewal. Do you keep him if we finish in the Europa or do you get someone better, for example Luis Enrique after the the world cup, to take the next step?
Because the level of expectation, and assessment of delivery, matters a lot in that decision.
I have said before that Arteta was extremely lucky to survive that run of results that had us in 16th on the 21st December 2020. We should never have been near the relegation zone. How he survived that only he knows. At no other big club would that have been tolerated.
Then when we got bantered out of the Europa League semis by our ex-manager, and Arteta got his tactics horribly wrong in two massive games, that was the other moment he should have been fired. But he wasn't.
I would personally prefer to look for other candidates in the Summer, but I don't think the Kroenkes will do that.
What do you mean why are Chelsea and Liverpool superior to us? Chelsea have won the most trophies out of any English club in the last 20 years. They are current European champions. They have also won every trophy there is to win. And they have spent more than us overall since 2019.
Liverpool were CL winners in 2019 and PL winners in 2020. They are CL regulars, competitive side and have a top manager. They are clearly superior to us.
----------------------------------------------
No I meant why have they won more than us? We could have bought Mane, Sala etc. Similarly we were actually competitive against the team managed by Lampard. Neither of those teams spent more than us. They just took better decisions at management level and directorial level.
I am not saying the current Arsenal hierarchy have not made mistakes. I am saying when clubs who are already much better than us subsequently take steps to improve further, then it makes our task of catching up more complicated. That's not to say it can't be done, but it makes the task harder because of how competitive it is. So you dismissing what other clubs are doing is asinine. Because it's totally relevant.
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No I am not dismissing what they do. I am saying you have to benchmark against other teams and do better. You have to take better decisions at all levels. What you cannot do is look at others and say we can't be better than them because they have a head start. Thats not conducive to improving yourself. In sport it only takes a few poor decisions and you are 'underpeforming' in pundit eyes. Just look at Spurs and Man Utd.
Emery had us in 12th when he was sacked, by the way. He finished 5th (which, if we look at the statistics, was very flukey and we vastly outperformed xG and xGA). This does not mean Arteta was the right appointment, but if you're trying to insinuate we should have kept Emery, I vehemently disagree with you.
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No you've misunderstood my point. Emery inherited a team with players who were always challenging for the top 4. Not finishing there mind you, but still finishing in European positions. However Arteta/Edu took that team and decided it was not good enough and we needed to rebuild the squad. I actually agree with that assessment. And Emery was never the man to be in charge of that (neither was Raul). However if you are assessing the people you gave that task to, and backed financially at what point do you not expect that to take shape?
Keep in mind if you continue to excuse that, and say well, top 4 is not realistic, you perpetuate just that, mid-table finishes. Then how long do you think those exceptional players you are developing will stick around? Footballers have limited careers and what to be playing against the best. They are not going to buy a dream of incrementally improving which may never take shape because your manager/technical director is not good enough!
It's an interesting debate. I had predicted 6th or there abouts, but solely based on quality of the manager (not great) and quality of the new signings. On that front Arteta has done very well. Firstly to keep our defence solid(ish) and secondly to keep ourselves in amongst the top 4, given our awful start to the season.
Right now, I only see one reason why we won't be able to finish as high up as 3rd; the form of the strikers we have left. Tbh, we've got this far without significant goal scoring contributions from either one of our strikers, so i don't see why we can't continue like that, albeit it would help a lot.
I'm with Thierry Henry with this. Anything outside top 4 is and should be considered a failure.
Wenger was sacked for failing to finish top 4
Emery was sacked for failing to finish top 4
Finishing outside top 4 is failure simple as.
comment by 100% The Problem (U18355)
posted 1 minute ago
Wenger was sacked for failing to finish top 4
Emery was sacked for failing to finish top 4
Finishing outside top 4 is failure simple as.
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Neither is true.
Wenger was sacked for being a barrier to a new way forward and for a decline despite great increase of funds.
Emery was sacked for losing the dressing room, being openly mocked by the squad, failing to get a grip on discipline and having an awful 4 months as well.
Right but neither would have been sacked were we in the CL
comment by 100% The Problem (U18355)
posted 5 hours, 1 minute ago
Right but neither would have been sacked were we in the CL
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Similar to the Auba situation, if he'd been performing on the pitch while acting the way he did he'd have been treated/handled very differently.
Arteta's methods will be vindicated if he succeeds, he'll be sacked if he doesn't. Football generally works that way although added factors like entertaining football give managers extra leeway
comment by Two Balls, One Saka (U19684)
posted 7 hours, 43 minutes ago
comment by 100% The Problem (U18355)
posted 5 hours, 1 minute ago
Right but neither would have been sacked were we in the CL
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Similar to the Auba situation, if he'd been performing on the pitch while acting the way he did he'd have been treated/handled very differently.
Arteta's methods will be vindicated if he succeeds, he'll be sacked if he doesn't. Football generally works that way although added factors like entertaining football give managers extra leeway
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As it always should be. If Josh Kroenke had fired Arteta last summer no one could have grumbled. But he kept faith and this season will tell if he is also 'vindicated' or not.
There is a reason why Arteta's contract expires just after the World Cup.
"No I am not dismissing what they do. I am saying you have to benchmark against other teams and do better. You have to take better decisions at all levels. What you cannot do is look at others and say we can't be better than them because they have a head start. Thats not conducive to improving yourself. In sport it only takes a few poor decisions and you are 'underpeforming' in pundit eyes. Just look at Spurs and Man Utd."
Again, I am going to reiterate the same point. it is very easy to say 'do better'. Of course we want to do better. Of course we need to do better. But that is easier said than done when there are loads of clubs who are striving to do the same and who have put themselves in a position where they are already better than us and are still looking to improve further. If we continue operating like we have been for the past decade or so, it makes it harder when Chelsea, City, Liverpool and definitely Newcastle will be looking to go from strength to strength. And Man United are a commercial powerhouse. 3 of those clubs have owners who will go to any length possible. We do not have that.
"Keep in mind if you continue to excuse that, and say well, top 4 is not realistic, you perpetuate just that, mid-table finishes."
It's not about making excuses, it's about being honest about where and what we are as a club.
Apart from 4 FA Cups, which were obviously nice to win, we have achieved nothing on the scale that we wanted to in the last decade and a half. And we have gone from CL regulars to Europa League regulars to no European football at all.
In that time, Chelsea, City and Liverpool have gone from strength to strength, and Man United, despite not being particularly great, have still been up there.
That makes it difficult for us when we haven't really been ran properly operationally.
Unless that changes, we will always be outsiders.
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5th is about right for us...
Page 1 of 2
posted on 14/2/22
Given the current context top four is very doable and it would be a disappointment/failure if we miss out (unless a rival goes on a very serious winning streak maybe)
posted on 14/2/22
comment by Two Balls, One Saka (U19684)
posted 23 seconds ago
Given the current context top four is very doable and it would be a disappointment/failure if we miss out (unless a rival goes on a very serious winning streak maybe)
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I wouldn't go as far to say it's 'failure', particularly as none of us expected us to get it at the start of the season and even after the January window. But it would be slightly disappointing considering how underwhelming the other teams have been.
I still maintain Man Utd should absolutely be getting top-4 as a minimum requirement and it would be an absolute disgrace if they don't. They finished 2nd last year and added Varane, Ronaldo and Sancho to their squad. They have a squad littered with attacking players. They shouldn't be struggling this much.
That said, if, at any point, they make it click, I fully expect them to get 4th.
Spurs and Arsenal are at quite a similar level comparatively, but Conte is a superior manager to Arteta, and that's why I think they have a slight edge over us.
So, if we do somehow get 4th, that would be a big overachievement IMO.
posted on 14/2/22
comment by Samir (U2630)
posted 15 minutes ago
comment by Two Balls, One Saka (U19684)
posted 23 seconds ago
Given the current context top four is very doable and it would be a disappointment/failure if we miss out (unless a rival goes on a very serious winning streak maybe)
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I wouldn't go as far to say it's 'failure', particularly as none of us expected us to get it at the start of the season and even after the January window. But it would be slightly disappointing considering how underwhelming the other teams have been.
I still maintain Man Utd should absolutely be getting top-4 as a minimum requirement and it would be an absolute disgrace if they don't. They finished 2nd last year and added Varane, Ronaldo and Sancho to their squad. They have a squad littered with attacking players. They shouldn't be struggling this much.
That said, if, at any point, they make it click, I fully expect them to get 4th.
Spurs and Arsenal are at quite a similar level comparatively, but Conte is a superior manager to Arteta, and that's why I think they have a slight edge over us.
So, if we do somehow get 4th, that would be a big overachievement IMO.
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On paper that all sounds fine but United are playing terribly and Spurs are wobbling. Both started so poorly they sacked their managers
We have a huge chance because of how fecked up our rivals for the spot are
Agree that failure probably isn't the right word though, unless the others continue to do really poorly and we still don't make it
posted on 14/2/22
I think when considering what is an acceptable finish right now you've got to take all the different variables into consideration. Firstly opponents wise Tottenham don't seem competitive right now, United have some good players but not a good team. We along with West Ham have the most settled teams. So in that respect we are ahead of Tottenham and United. Next comes what sort of condition each team is in and how fatigue will affect teams coming to the end of the season. Unquestionably we are in the best position we will have played less games than anyone else. The two main negatives for us is do we have enough goals in the team to win enough matches and secondly is having Arteta as manager going to be a negative as the jury is still out with him. If you put all that together then if we don't finish 4th or come very close its a big disappointment and Arteta and Edu's positions should come under scrutiny
posted on 14/2/22
I expected us to finish in the top 4 at the start of the season.
posted on 14/2/22
To sum up what's been said above, the battle for 4th this year is similar the to the title battle in 2016. All of the favourites had problems and Leicester took full advantage.
We need to take full advantage this season, because it won't get any easier afterwards.
posted on 14/2/22
A lot of posters on this thread in my opinion have fallen into the trap of justifying finishing 8th twice. And then building on that. But thats NOT what the aim of the so called 'project' was sold to us.
Lets assume that the aim of the club is to improve every season:
Emery finished 5th after competing for the top 4.
He dropped the following season and Arteta completed the season finishing 8th.
Assuming we improved the squad by getting rid of dead wood, as the fans kept on saying we should have finished in the top 6 last season. However we finished 8th. We then outspent every other club, again improving on the squad.
So if we assume our finish of 8th was an aberration we should be expected to finish in the top 4.
It doesn't matter what the rest are doing because we are supposed to be improving the squad every season! Or whats the point of Arteta and Edu?
posted on 14/2/22
I'm sorry J99 but you're talking absolute nonsense. I've had this conversation with you before and I've told you to stop parroting that line because it is inherently flawed.
Of course it matters what the rest are doing. What a ridiculous comment. They ALL have the intention to improve their squad every season too. Do you think our rivals are going to sit still and just let us improve?
Chelsea, City and Liverpool were already superior to us, had better managers than us and are in superior financial positions to us. We have no right to finish ahead of either of those teams.
As mentioned previously, Man United finished 2nd and then added Sancho, Ronaldo and Varane - players who we cannot attract because the clout and financial power United have supersedes anything Arsenal can do.
It is not 'lowering expectations' to say we shouldn't be finishing ahead of those 4 clubs. It is pragmatism.
Spurs have an objectively better manager than us in Conte. Our squads aren't too different though. Which is why I personally think they may finish ahead of us, but if they didn't, it wouldn't be a surprised.
We spent the most money out of every other club (in terms of transfer fees) because we needed to try and close the gap. Chelsea, City and Liverpool didn't need to spend as much because they already have squads filled with quality players.
Right now, we are in a better position than most of us expected due to the underperformance of Spurs and Man United (although West Ham are performing above their level).
If, say, we finish 5th, then whilst it is not ideal, it is clearly an improvement on 8th, and is generally in line with where many people expected us to finish given the strength of the clubs above us.
You can deny it all you want, but getting 4th would be an overachievement for Arsenal.
posted on 14/2/22
5th would be par.
In turn it would mean no excuses next season, top 4 or door for Arteta.
posted on 14/2/22
comment by Samir (U2630)
posted 38 minutes ago
Of course it matters what the rest are doing. What a ridiculous comment. They ALL have the intention to improve their squad every season too. Do you think our rivals are going to sit still and just let us improve?
Chelsea, City and Liverpool were already superior to us, had better managers than us and are in superior financial positions to us. We have no right to finish ahead of either of those teams.
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Why are Chelsea and Liverpool superior to us? We have spent more money than them for the last 5 years. Actually 10 years. By quite a bit.
So obviously its because we have spent poorly and been managed poorly. (like you say)
Then how do you hold those people to account if every year you repeat that they are better than us, well because of the past so have an advantage. It can't be the fault of the present lot.
So examine it a bit more deeply. We were actually 5th under Emery. But have gone backwards since then. We were told that we are improving the squad since then, why shouldn't we expect to see that? Why is finishing in the top 4 seen as an overachievement?
posted on 14/2/22
As mentioned previously, Man United finished 2nd and then added Sancho, Ronaldo and Varane - players who we cannot attract because the clout and financial power United have supersedes anything Arsenal can do.
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And how have they played?
Was that good spending or wasting money like we have in the past?
posted on 14/2/22
If, say, we finish 5th, then whilst it is not ideal, it is clearly an improvement on 8th, and is generally in line with where many people expected us to finish given the strength of the clubs above us.
-------------------------------------------
And why was that an expectation if not for finishing 8th the season before? The season before that we finished 5th? Was that an overachievement under Emery? If so was he discarded after the first blip?
Yes, a lot of pundits rated Spurs, Man Utd higher than us. But they are not doing better than us and West Ham are competing with us. Is that based on how the players are doing and the level they are at (they have changed manager as well btw and still not doing any better) or is it they are 'under achieving' based on the embarrassment of assessing player quality based on hype over reality?
posted on 14/2/22
After the first 3 games I expected to finish 10th. After the City game (despite the fact that we lost) I thought we were nailed on for fourth and should push for 3rd. Now I think it will be ridiculously tight - no one team out of WHU/Man U/Spurs/Arsenal/Wolves has managed to pull away from the pack, as each team keeps messing up when the opportunity to do that arises.
I have high hopes of finishing fourth because our two true contenders (United and Spurs) are in laughable form at the moment and we have a fairly kind run of games right now (excluding Wolves at home which will be a challenge, and arguably Brighton /Palace at home too).
Will be delighted with 4th and somewhat disappointed with 5. I have 0 interested in yet another year of Europa.
posted on 14/2/22
comment by NorthLondonGunner (U22220)
posted 14 minutes ago
After the first 3 games I expected to finish 10th. After the City game (despite the fact that we lost) I thought we were nailed on for fourth and should push for 3rd. Now I think it will be ridiculously tight - no one team out of WHU/Man U/Spurs/Arsenal/Wolves has managed to pull away from the pack, as each team keeps messing up when the opportunity to do that arises.
I have high hopes of finishing fourth because our two true contenders (United and Spurs) are in laughable form at the moment and we have a fairly kind run of games right now (excluding Wolves at home which will be a challenge, and arguably Brighton /Palace at home too).
Will be delighted with 4th and somewhat disappointed with 5. I have 0 interested in yet another year of Europa.
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Pretty much this. It's not just that the other teams are more likely to improve next season, it's also that Newcastle will inflate the market, as they probably will stay up, so even if they don't pose an immediate threat next season, they will indirectly hinder us in the transfer market.
posted on 14/2/22
J99,
What do you mean why are Chelsea and Liverpool superior to us? Chelsea have won the most trophies out of any English club in the last 20 years. They are current European champions. They have also won every trophy there is to win. And they have spent more than us overall since 2019.
Liverpool were CL winners in 2019 and PL winners in 2020. They are CL regulars, competitive side and have a top manager. They are clearly superior to us.
I am not saying the current Arsenal hierarchy have not made mistakes. I am saying when clubs who are already much better than us subsequently take steps to improve further, then it makes our task of catching up more complicated. That's not to say it can't be done, but it makes the task harder because of how competitive it is. So you dismissing what other clubs are doing is asinine. Because it's totally relevant.
Emery had us in 12th when he was sacked, by the way. He finished 5th (which, if we look at the statistics, was very flukey and we vastly outperformed xG and xGA). This does not mean Arteta was the right appointment, but if you're trying to insinuate we should have kept Emery, I vehemently disagree with you.
I've already explained to you why 4th is an overachievement. There are 4 clubs who have better managers and better squads than us (on paper). 1 of those clubs are underperforming right now, which is why the door is open for that coveted 4th spot.
Last season, I expected us to finish 6th-7th because I really did not rate a lot of our players. We finished 8th. It was below expectation, but not massively.
With the players we have now, there is an incremental improvement. However, there isn't enough of an improvement for me to believe we are good enough for 4th. And we have the weakest set of strikers out of all the contenders, which puts us at a disadvantage.
Man United are underachieving for a variety of reasons, but many people at the beginning of the season had them as contenders for the title based on their transfer activity. We cannot forget this just because events haven't panned out that way since then.
Would I be disappointed if we don't get 4th? Given how the season has gone, a little bit.
Does this mean it is an abject failure of a season if we finish 5th? No. It is par for the course, considering the state of our squad.
I also don't think people should be so dismissive of the Europa League. We have never actually won it before, but we still have a better chance of winning that than the Champions League.
posted on 14/2/22
Samir, there is a lot to breakdown and I'll do it when I have a little more time.
Just to ask you.
Arteta's contract is coming up for renewal. Do you keep him if we finish in the Europa or do you get someone better, for example Luis Enrique after the the world cup, to take the next step?
Because the level of expectation, and assessment of delivery, matters a lot in that decision.
posted on 14/2/22
I have said before that Arteta was extremely lucky to survive that run of results that had us in 16th on the 21st December 2020. We should never have been near the relegation zone. How he survived that only he knows. At no other big club would that have been tolerated.
Then when we got bantered out of the Europa League semis by our ex-manager, and Arteta got his tactics horribly wrong in two massive games, that was the other moment he should have been fired. But he wasn't.
I would personally prefer to look for other candidates in the Summer, but I don't think the Kroenkes will do that.
posted on 14/2/22
What do you mean why are Chelsea and Liverpool superior to us? Chelsea have won the most trophies out of any English club in the last 20 years. They are current European champions. They have also won every trophy there is to win. And they have spent more than us overall since 2019.
Liverpool were CL winners in 2019 and PL winners in 2020. They are CL regulars, competitive side and have a top manager. They are clearly superior to us.
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No I meant why have they won more than us? We could have bought Mane, Sala etc. Similarly we were actually competitive against the team managed by Lampard. Neither of those teams spent more than us. They just took better decisions at management level and directorial level.
I am not saying the current Arsenal hierarchy have not made mistakes. I am saying when clubs who are already much better than us subsequently take steps to improve further, then it makes our task of catching up more complicated. That's not to say it can't be done, but it makes the task harder because of how competitive it is. So you dismissing what other clubs are doing is asinine. Because it's totally relevant.
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No I am not dismissing what they do. I am saying you have to benchmark against other teams and do better. You have to take better decisions at all levels. What you cannot do is look at others and say we can't be better than them because they have a head start. Thats not conducive to improving yourself. In sport it only takes a few poor decisions and you are 'underpeforming' in pundit eyes. Just look at Spurs and Man Utd.
Emery had us in 12th when he was sacked, by the way. He finished 5th (which, if we look at the statistics, was very flukey and we vastly outperformed xG and xGA). This does not mean Arteta was the right appointment, but if you're trying to insinuate we should have kept Emery, I vehemently disagree with you.
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No you've misunderstood my point. Emery inherited a team with players who were always challenging for the top 4. Not finishing there mind you, but still finishing in European positions. However Arteta/Edu took that team and decided it was not good enough and we needed to rebuild the squad. I actually agree with that assessment. And Emery was never the man to be in charge of that (neither was Raul). However if you are assessing the people you gave that task to, and backed financially at what point do you not expect that to take shape?
Keep in mind if you continue to excuse that, and say well, top 4 is not realistic, you perpetuate just that, mid-table finishes. Then how long do you think those exceptional players you are developing will stick around? Footballers have limited careers and what to be playing against the best. They are not going to buy a dream of incrementally improving which may never take shape because your manager/technical director is not good enough!
posted on 16/2/22
It's an interesting debate. I had predicted 6th or there abouts, but solely based on quality of the manager (not great) and quality of the new signings. On that front Arteta has done very well. Firstly to keep our defence solid(ish) and secondly to keep ourselves in amongst the top 4, given our awful start to the season.
Right now, I only see one reason why we won't be able to finish as high up as 3rd; the form of the strikers we have left. Tbh, we've got this far without significant goal scoring contributions from either one of our strikers, so i don't see why we can't continue like that, albeit it would help a lot.
I'm with Thierry Henry with this. Anything outside top 4 is and should be considered a failure.
posted on 16/2/22
Wenger was sacked for failing to finish top 4
Emery was sacked for failing to finish top 4
Finishing outside top 4 is failure simple as.
posted on 16/2/22
comment by 100% The Problem (U18355)
posted 1 minute ago
Wenger was sacked for failing to finish top 4
Emery was sacked for failing to finish top 4
Finishing outside top 4 is failure simple as.
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Neither is true.
Wenger was sacked for being a barrier to a new way forward and for a decline despite great increase of funds.
Emery was sacked for losing the dressing room, being openly mocked by the squad, failing to get a grip on discipline and having an awful 4 months as well.
posted on 16/2/22
Right but neither would have been sacked were we in the CL
posted on 17/2/22
comment by 100% The Problem (U18355)
posted 5 hours, 1 minute ago
Right but neither would have been sacked were we in the CL
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Similar to the Auba situation, if he'd been performing on the pitch while acting the way he did he'd have been treated/handled very differently.
Arteta's methods will be vindicated if he succeeds, he'll be sacked if he doesn't. Football generally works that way although added factors like entertaining football give managers extra leeway
posted on 17/2/22
comment by Two Balls, One Saka (U19684)
posted 7 hours, 43 minutes ago
comment by 100% The Problem (U18355)
posted 5 hours, 1 minute ago
Right but neither would have been sacked were we in the CL
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Similar to the Auba situation, if he'd been performing on the pitch while acting the way he did he'd have been treated/handled very differently.
Arteta's methods will be vindicated if he succeeds, he'll be sacked if he doesn't. Football generally works that way although added factors like entertaining football give managers extra leeway
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As it always should be. If Josh Kroenke had fired Arteta last summer no one could have grumbled. But he kept faith and this season will tell if he is also 'vindicated' or not.
There is a reason why Arteta's contract expires just after the World Cup.
posted on 17/2/22
"No I am not dismissing what they do. I am saying you have to benchmark against other teams and do better. You have to take better decisions at all levels. What you cannot do is look at others and say we can't be better than them because they have a head start. Thats not conducive to improving yourself. In sport it only takes a few poor decisions and you are 'underpeforming' in pundit eyes. Just look at Spurs and Man Utd."
Again, I am going to reiterate the same point. it is very easy to say 'do better'. Of course we want to do better. Of course we need to do better. But that is easier said than done when there are loads of clubs who are striving to do the same and who have put themselves in a position where they are already better than us and are still looking to improve further. If we continue operating like we have been for the past decade or so, it makes it harder when Chelsea, City, Liverpool and definitely Newcastle will be looking to go from strength to strength. And Man United are a commercial powerhouse. 3 of those clubs have owners who will go to any length possible. We do not have that.
"Keep in mind if you continue to excuse that, and say well, top 4 is not realistic, you perpetuate just that, mid-table finishes."
It's not about making excuses, it's about being honest about where and what we are as a club.
Apart from 4 FA Cups, which were obviously nice to win, we have achieved nothing on the scale that we wanted to in the last decade and a half. And we have gone from CL regulars to Europa League regulars to no European football at all.
In that time, Chelsea, City and Liverpool have gone from strength to strength, and Man United, despite not being particularly great, have still been up there.
That makes it difficult for us when we haven't really been ran properly operationally.
Unless that changes, we will always be outsiders.
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